Covid 19

[pawpar]

On the 28th July 1914 it was claimed that world war one would be over by Christmas 1914. It ended 4 and a half years later in November 1918. I always thought correctly that people were not stupid enough to go to war again because the government told them too in World War 1 and World War 2. I did think that the only way we could have an elongated period of disruption was due to a pandemic that we are living through now. When lockdown started in March people thought that just in world war one it would be over in a short period of time. Firstly June then July, August, September etc., now it is looking that at the very least it will be 2021 before this ends. Obviously once we have a vaccine then this will hopefully end. However if it takes longer or god forbid we never have a vaccine then it could take the same amount of years before we get out of this.  So my question is this when do you think  life will get back to normal (i.e before April 2020) ?

[parsforlife]

2021 will be ‘back to normal’.  Or at least something representing it.  I think there will be a general shift in how we operate by the time restrictions are fully lifted. People will typically still attempt social distancing where possible(obviously not gigs etc), there will be a far more relaxed attitude to working from home,  supermarkets may still operate some form of controlled entry. We will get used to small spikes in deaths and the possibility of immediate lockdowns being applied in effected areas.   But day to day we will not be missing out on anything that we had a few months ago.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

12 minutes ago, parsforlife said:

2021 will be ‘back to normal’.  Or at least something representing it.  I think there will be a general shift in how we operate by the time restrictions are fully lifted. People will typically still attempt social distancing where possible(obviously not gigs etc), there will be a far more relaxed attitude to working from home,  supermarkets may still operate some form of controlled entry. We will get used to small spikes in deaths and the possibility of immediate lockdowns being applied in effected areas.   But day to day we will not be missing out on anything that we had a few months ago.

If it's true that we're heading for a 1930's type recession (or something approaching it), then the economic devastation of this virus will be far worse than the death toll.

If millions are unemployed it will have a huge effect on all our lives. Businesses will collapse, families will suffer, and the 'normal' as we knew it will for many be gone forever. 

It may be that the world proves resilient and that within a year or so economies have stabilised, but the way its looking isn't hopeful. 

[Jacksgranda]

3 hours ago, pawpar said:

On the 28th July 1914 it was claimed that world war one would be over by Christmas 1914. It ended 4 and a half years later in November 1918. I always thought correctly that people were not stupid enough to go to war again because the government told them too in World War 1 and World War 2. I did think that the only way we could have an elongated period of disruption was due to a pandemic that we are living through now. When lockdown started in March people thought that just in world war one it would be over in a short period of time. Firstly June then July, August, September etc., now it is looking that at the very least it will be 2021 before this ends. Obviously once we have a vaccine then this will hopefully end. However if it takes longer or god forbid we never have a vaccine then it could take the same amount of years before we get out of this.  So my question is this when do you think  life will get back to normal (i.e before April 2020) ?

Very prescient of whoever said that.

[dorlomin]

The theory is that it will take a very strong lock down to slow the first wave. But subsequent waves will be more manageable an the actions taken to slow them less severe. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

We are likely at or near the peak infection rate for the UK so some restrictions might start being lifted in a month or so.

Other things are that in the coming weeks we will have a clearer idea of what does and does not work. For example a few studies indicate that most spread is indoors, especially where people live in the same house. So this may lead to countries having a more lax attitude to being outside. This explains why the UK is not forcing people who live in the same household to social distance when outside, the thinking is that that would be useless. 

So far as I can see, the idea is that in about a month or two we will be back to jobs and other activities but some restrictions may be in place for socialising in places like pubs. There will be experimenting to see what can be reopened safely or what less severe restrictions and changes in behaviour can be used to return social activities closer to normal. 

There are two types of tesiing:

Antigen testing, that is a test to see if you have the disease.

Antibody testing, that is a test to see if you had the disease and are over it. 

At the moment we have a reasonably accurate antigen test, so we sort of know when people have the disease. (I think the accuracy is around 70-80% so its really not foolproof). Our governments are very keen on antibody testing to see who may have had it, they are likely immune: but a recent warning by WHO (misreported by the press) pointed out we are not sure how much immunity people who have had the disease have against a second infection. This is one of the proposed"exit strategies", antibody testing and issuing "immunity passports". The other is keeping the disease numbers low enough you can do strict contact tracing on anyone who comes down with it and impose a quarenteen on anyone who had contact with a known carrier, this is where the tracking apps come in. They would in theory allow quick identification of who has been in contact with someone who had the disease. 

This is a very brief and badly written break down of a lot of ground so will likely miss key points. 

 

[dorlomin]

The biggest costs in life and livelihoods will be payed in low income countries as they lose funding for their weak healthcare systems, people lose jobs so have no money to access healthcare and go without food as they have no real savings to ride out and extended recession\depression. 

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

The theory is that it will take a very strong lock down to slow the first wave. But subsequent waves will be more manageable an the actions taken to slow them less severe. 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

We are likely at or near the peak infection rate for the UK so some restrictions might start being lifted in a month or so.

Other things are that in the coming weeks we will have a clearer idea of what does and does not work. For example a few studies indicate that most spread is indoors, especially where people live in the same house. So this may lead to countries having a more lax attitude to being outside. This explains why the UK is not forcing people who live in the same household to social distance when outside, the thinking is that that would be useless. 

So far as I can see, the idea is that in about a month or two we will be back to jobs and other activities but some restrictions may be in place for socialising in places like pubs. There will be experimenting to see what can be reopened safely or what less severe restrictions and changes in behaviour can be used to return social activities closer to normal. 

There are two types of tesiing:

Antigen testing, that is a test to see if you have the disease.

Antibody testing, that is a test to see if you had the disease and are over it. 

At the moment we have a reasonably accurate antigen test, so we sort of know when people have the disease. (I think the accuracy is around 70-80% so its really not foolproof). Our governments are very keen on antibody testing to see who may have had it, they are likely immune: but a recent warning by WHO (misreported by the press) pointed out we are not sure how much immunity people who have had the disease have against a second infection. This is one of the proposed"exit strategies", antibody testing and issuing "immunity passports". The other is keeping the disease numbers low enough you can do strict contact tracing on anyone who comes down with it and impose a quarenteen on anyone who had contact with a known carrier, this is where the tracking apps come in. They would in theory allow quick identification of who has been in contact with someone who had the disease. 

This is a very brief and badly written break down of a lot of ground so will likely miss key points. 

 

They are going to have to test more or less the entire population, because we have no record of those who may have had only slight systems ( or even severe symptoms but recovered at home without hospilitisation) and didn't go to hospital. Presumably we'll have a record of those who went into hospital and recovered.