West of Scotland Football, What Is The Future?

[holmparkheroes]

3 hours ago, Tutankhamen said:

Thing is we don't know the numbers of how many have had the virus in the general population other than a general excess death figure.

Certainly wouldn't trust UK Government figures. Originally there was talk of a 1% death rate which would put the population who have had the virus in the 50 million bracket. Second part would be, can you get the virus twice?

One percent of 50 million is 500000

[peasy23]

1 hour ago, Hillonearth said:

In that respect, it's very much like other coronaviruses such as the common cold which means you probably could...there's some limited evidence of people in Asia having caught it twice already.

At least the Scottish Government are consistently providing a caveat on the figures they're giving, with the last one I saw being 2500-ish deaths which are actually likely to be closer to 4000. The UK government don't do that, concentrating on the headline figure which is currently at 40,000+ which if you extrapolate from the Scottish numbers is actually likely to be up in the region of 60-70,000 by now.

In terms of getting back to normality, we're nowhere near there yet. Although a lot of folk are chafing at the bit for it to happen, there's still maybe a wee bit of denial about just how different things will look when they reconvene...a socially distanced pub will be an interesting visit - probably once! - and just how much of a fun time eating in a restaurant where every second table is empty and you're being served by someone wearing PPE remains to be seen.

Seen some reports that the accuracy of tests can be wildly erratic, with some areas reporting 30% false positive tests, and others with 20% false negatives. How they can come up with those figures at all if the test is so erratic beats me tbh.

I'm glad I'm not having to make the decisions, but at some point in the near future if the R number and numbers of cases keep declining, then some difficult choices have to be made to strike a balance between the risk of Covid19, and the welfare of the population at large with increased mental health issues, people not being treated for other illnesses, and the impact on the economy of the lockdown period. Plenty of sectors will be struggling for a while yet, and the fact that the SFA took 2 weeks after phase 1 of the exit strategy to announce their phase 1 guidelines, doesn't inspire much confidence in their forward planning. Other governing bodies (golf, tennis, bowls) had held meetings with government before any easing of restrictions so that they were ready to go when given the nod, I would be amazed if our biggest national sport had been left sidelined on that.

[Tutankhamen]

Worse case scenario, no football at this level before a vaccine appears.

[Andy groundhopper]

My best wishes to everyone who has lost a family member to covid19, hopefully it will soon be behind us. I'd be ok going back to a game, the mask and gloves compulsory ? Sure that a crowd of 4-500 has enough intelligence to stand apart and obey all the rules. Maybe we all need to be tested as insurance, let's hope the deaths decrease asap. All down to the clubs and players really.

[Arthurlie1981]

My best wishes to everyone who has lost a family member to covid19, hopefully it will soon be behind us. I'd be ok going back to a game, the mask and gloves compulsory ? Sure that a crowd of 4-500 has enough intelligence to stand apart and obey all the rules. Maybe we all need to be tested as insurance, let's hope the deaths decrease asap. All down to the clubs and players really.

The issue is making sure that only 4-500 turn up. What happens if fans of clubs playing behind closed doors turn up looking for their football fix.

I want to get back and see Arthurlie as soon as possible but no way should we be doing it until the r number and death rates are much lower than the are. We are still working through travel restriction issues and there are many other similar issues that need to be resolved before we can have any size of gathering more than 8 people.

[Juniorfootball123]

21 minutes ago, Arthurlie1981 said:

 

The issue is making sure that only 4-500 turn up. What happens if fans of clubs playing behind closed doors turn up looking for their football fix.

I want to get back and see Arthurlie as soon as possible but no way should we be doing it until the r number and death rates are much lower than the are. We are still working through travel restriction issues and there are many other similar issues that need to be resolved before we can have any size of gathering more than 8 people.

 

Which in my opinion would 100% happen. There is evidence there that some clubs attendances fluctuate depending where Celtic/Rangers are that day.

I wonder what the capacity in most juniors grounds would be with social distancing in place? Obviously some are different based on the structure of the ground, Arthurlie, Cumbernauld, etc but generally speaking if 3/4 sides are available I think you would be ok and have capacity for 600/700... would that then open the doors for all ticket? First come first serve? 

[parsforlife]

21 minutes ago, Arthurlie1981 said:

 

The issue is making sure that only 4-500 turn up. What happens if fans of clubs playing behind closed doors turn up looking for their football fix.
 

 

This.  As a spfl fan I can absolutely guarantee i'll be watching non-league football if i could watch that in the flesh with everything else behind closed doors. I reckon from those that sit around me at least half have a passing interest in local non-league teams.  In normal circumstances that presents itself in 1 game a year attendance, but when we haven't seen a game in 3 months and likely to go another 6 months then it will probably at least become once a month, probably every 2 weeks for most to replace the home games they have lost and maybe even every week for those of us who are used to following teams home and away.  You also have the guys who travel from fife to support OF/hibs hearts as well. There's maybe 10000+ fans in fife looking for a game to watch week to week normally occupied by spfl games.  That's going to be very hard to control which ground they'd go. 

[Arthurlie1981]

It’s unlikely that we will see any football at this level until stage 4 which will come at the earliest September imo (but will probably be later than that).

Unless players coaches and referees are willing to play and officiate for free I don’t see any games taking place behind close doors which could happen at stage 3.

[cmontheloknow]

20 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The virus isn't mutating as rapidly as the common cold or the flu does, which is why there is a lot of optimism on an immunity response generated by a vaccine being effective against it.

And yet as far as I know, not a single vaccine exists for a coronavirus. It is not the cold or flu.

[cmontheloknow]

Beyond the return to training and the demands for testing the SFA are wanting, I think you have to factor in a few things beyond hoping fans socially distance on the terraces - but that would go against any instinct as most people go to mingle with pals.

1. Player & official safety. Can the dressing rooms be socially distanced? Non-league dressing rooms tend to be a tight fit in my experience of dumping / collrecting kit in/from them when on committee.

2. Supporter safety: if fans are being charged admission, clubs have to take some responsiblity for safety within the ground. That means catering - does it get closed therefore loss of revenue? Toilets - are they safe? Can they be socially distanced? The virus can live on surfaces - how do clubs ensure all surfaces are hygienic?  How do clubs ensure social distancing? 2m on a terrace is not just sideways, it's front and back too. The capacity of Newlandsfield's enclosure would go from 1500 to 150.

Junior grounds are some of the least safe, least hygienic sporting venues in the country as it is. With an easily transmitted virus out there - and who knows what will happen as the year goes on with a re-emergence, it makes the risk factors increase dramatically.

The above will be more challenging the bigger the crowd and when covered enclosures are available. I don't get to as many games as I used to be able to do but I get far fewer respiratory illnesses as a trade off. Standing in your own space in a field gives little chance of transmission (see the pics from Fort William & Creetown below) but less easy on terraces in a crowd.

[Andy groundhopper]

Not wanting to belittle the virus, but it's interesting how much safer we demand the grounds to become pro covid19 - but prior to this,we couldn't really care a less, as said,non Lge grounds are basic and probably unhygienic - but we all turned up and ate the food,  drank the beer etc. Confusing when you hear the MP's trying to lower the social distance (for economic reasons)

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, cmontheloknow said:

And yet as far as I know, not a single vaccine exists for a coronavirus. It is not the cold or flu.

The reason there is no previous coronavirus vaccine is that unlike COVID-19 they tend to rapidly mutate, so you appear to have missed my point. There are rational reasons for optimism that a COVID-19 vaccine can be developed. Beyond that we should be feeling relieved that COVID-19 is nothing like as bad as the H1N1 flu of 1918 in terms of mortality rates. One of my grandfathers lost both his grandfathers in the space of a month to that. Respiratory infections like the flu could be very bad news for coal miners in later life in that era.

[Dev]

1 hour ago, cmontheloknow said:

And yet as far as I know, not a single vaccine exists for a coronavirus. It is not the cold or flu.

Vaccines for corona type viruses aren't guaranteed at all. However, at least the world and his dog is out there trying to come up with one. Good luck to them ASAP.

Maybe the best hope is that drugs, including existing ones, can be made or found which will make a big difference to the treatment of patients and to their chances of surviving, in the worst cases, and to reduce the nasty work that this virus can do to people's bodies.

[Arthurlie1981]

Not wanting to belittle the virus, but it's interesting how much safer we demand the grounds to become pro covid19 - but prior to this,we couldn't really care a less, as said,non Lge grounds are basic and probably unhygienic - but we all turned up and ate the food,  drank the beer etc. Confusing when you hear the MP's trying to lower the social distance (for economic reasons)

Any decisions taken by MPs effect England only and the Scottish Government have taken the position to move slower rightly or wrongly.

In terms of your main point, I don’t agree that grounds are unhygienic. Clubs have a duty to follow hygiene rules if they are serving food etc. If they don’t they are leaving themselves open to legal action both by the local authority and patrons.

[nicotina]

to monalie     out of the house of BONDAGE

so the bible tells me so

not trying to score a point

[theesel1994]

Have any of you been outside lately?

First day of the lockdown being eased I passed a group of about 30 youths out for a bevvy on the beach. Social distancing out the window. I know they are the least affected by it but can still pass it on. Another smaller group were playing football on the grass. Tradesmen are back out at work sharing space in vans. From walking about you would only know life was any different when you enter a shop. Everything else appears back to normal. When the furlough scheme changes and employers have to lay off staff I think a lot more people are going to have a change in attitude.

[peasy23]

On 13/06/2020 at 17:32, Tutankhamen said:

Worse case scenario, no football at this level before a vaccine appears.

Could be never then if you use that rationale, the only virus that has ever been completely eradicated was smallpox.

[Crazy Feet]

On ‎13‎/‎06‎/‎2020 at 12:27, holmparkheroes said:

One percent of 50 million is 500000

True mortality rate is more like 0.1%. 

If you're under 60 and not obese you're not dying of this virus. You have as much chance of dying as being hit by a bus.

If there's not a huge spike by the end of the month after hundreds of thousands of people protesting (without social distancing) the last week or so, there's no justification for keeping the lockdown going any longer. Time to get the pubs opened and the football back.

Edited June 15, 2020 by Crazy Feet

[Arthurlie1981]

True mortality rate is more like 0.1%. 
If you're under 60 and not obese you're not dying of this virus. You have as much chance of dying as being hit by a bus.
If there's not a huge spike by the end of the month after hundreds of thousands of people protesting (without social distancing) the last week or so, there's no justification for keeping the lockdown going any longer. Time to get the pubs opened and the football back.

Good to see we have the Scottish Governments scientific adviser on here providing the stats [emoji23].

I disagree there is still plenty we don’t know about including why perfectly well people of all ages have died. Even if you ignore the mortality rate the long lasting damage it does to someone’s health (even when they are previously healthy should be caution enough not to race back.

As I have said before I don’t see us having football back before winter and that’s if we avoid the second wave that China and other nations are starting to see.

[Crazy Feet]

16 minutes ago, Arthurlie1981 said:

 

Good to see we have the Scottish Governments scientific adviser on here providing the stats .

I disagree there is still plenty we don’t know about including why perfectly well people of all ages have died. Even if you ignore the mortality rate the long lasting damage it does to someone’s health (even when they are previously healthy should be caution enough not to race back.

As I have said before I don’t see us having football back before winter and that’s if we avoid the second wave that China and other nations are starting to see.

 

Well, I am giving you facts fella. The average death age from Covid-19 over the whole world is higher than the life expectancy in Scotland. 

There are a tiny percentage of cases were younger people have died who have no obvious health issues. They are total anomalies though, in the same way you see young people dying from cancer or other illness at a young age when it's not common.

You sound like you watch too much Sky News and take in all the doomsday nonsense they spout every day. If you want to hide in the house until a vaccine comes (which might be never) that's fair enough. Let the rest of us get on with our lives and get back out there enjoying ourselves again.

Edited June 15, 2020 by Crazy Feet