The SPFL recommendation?

[Paco]

As before, a temporary 14 team Championship would be a disaster when it resorted to 10 teams. 14 teams to be begin with, and you’d be looking to maintain at least one promotion spot to prevent the season being a complete dead rubber, albeit still very boring with 14 teams going for one promotion spot. So one up would require three down from the Premiership. 16 teams now. The third tier would probably want one up for the very same reason, so you have 17 teams and you need to get back to 10. Seven from the original 14 would need relegated in that case. Hearts feel it’s unfair to be relegated after 28 games for being bottom, but relegating someone in 8th from 14 after 36 games will be perfectly fair?

You could mitigate the craziness I suppose by reverting to a 12 second tier, and abandoning promotion from tier 3. That would require 4/14 to be relegated which is better but I’m not sure there’s any desire for a 12 team second tier and it makes the third tier virtually pointless for a season. Only playing for the top four to remain in the third tier, and the bottom 10 are relegated.

It seems palpably ridiculous and entirely unworkable on a temporary basis.

[Shadwell Dog]

8 hours ago, TxRover said:

Let talk numbers, assuming teams vote based upon relegations and promotions: 

League Two. Probably 7-9 clear yes and a the rest maybes. If the vote is on 14-14-16, add several no votes (perennial bottom of the table clubs), likely enough to sink it. 

League One. 4 no votes immediately (Cove, Forfar, Peterhead and Clyde), yes votes from the stronger and/or relatively better financed teams (Falkirk, Partick, Airdrie), maybes from the rest (Dumbarton, East Fife and Montrose). 

Totals: 10 yes, 4 no and 6 maybes for 14/14/14...10 yes but more than 5 no for 14/14/16. 

Championship. Very much depends on the plans for promotion/relegation after one year, and how to proceed after the second year. Given a 60% team turnover is possible in the Championship (4 down from Premiership, 2 up to Premiership, 8 down to League One and 2 up). The only “certainly safe” positions would be 3rd-6th in a 14 team league. Honestly, a no vote seems likely to win. 

Premiership. No way, with as many as 4 teams to be relegated after the two years, there will be at least 2 no votes. Also, a no vote is a thumb in the eye to Hearts...and who doesn’t like that idea?

Why would montrose and east fife vote no to promotion and decent money from bigger crowds?

Theres no guarantee that we'll go back to what we have in two years time. At that point the plan is to look again at the structure and see what's right for scottish football. I would presume that after 2 years any new structure will surely have to be voted on again, and who knows the 14 14 14 may prove very successful and they may just stick with it.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Shadwell Dog

[RandomGuy.]

11 hours ago, Rovers_Lad said:

What did the 6 top flight clubs say naw to then ?

 

11 hours ago, Shadwell Dog said:

Reconstruction. Simple as that. Nothing specific. No actual proposal.

Can only speak for St Johnstone as I cant remember what other clubs said, but Steve Brown said he was against reconstruction at this time, and especially temporary.

His preference was for talks to be held about a permanent reconstruction once the Covid situation has calmed down and every club isnt just looking after themselves to try and survive.

Theres almost no chance hes voting for her proposal, so that's one Premiership club off the list.

[Shadwell Dog]

3 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

 

Can only speak for St Johnstone as I cant remember what other clubs said, but Steve Brown said he was against reconstruction at this time, and especially temporary.

His preference was for talks to be held about a permanent reconstruction once the Covid situation has calmed down and every club isnt just looking after themselves to try and survive.

Theres almost no chance hes voting for her proposal, so that's one Premiership club off the list.

Exactly. He was against discussion on any proposal till the situation had changed.  The rest of the 6 were basically the same.  

 

[Bairn in Exile]

43 minutes ago, Paco said:

As before, a temporary 14 team Championship would be a disaster when it resorted to 10 teams. 14 teams to be begin with, and you’d be looking to maintain at least one promotion spot to prevent the season being a complete dead rubber, albeit 1)still very boring with 14 teams going for one promotion spot. 2)So one up would require three down from the Premiership. 16 teams now. The third tier would probably want one up for the very same reason, so you have 17 teams and you need to get back to 10. Seven from the original 14 would need relegated in that case. 3)Hearts feel it’s unfair to be relegated after 28 games for being bottom, but relegating someone in 8th from 14 after 36 games will be perfectly fair?

You could mitigate the craziness I suppose by reverting to a 12 second tier, and abandoning promotion from tier 3. That would require 4/14 to be relegated which is better but I’m not sure there’s any desire for a 12 team second tier and it makes the third tier virtually pointless for a season. Only playing for the top four to remain in the third tier, and the bottom 10 are relegated.

It seems palpably ridiculous and entirely unworkable on a temporary basis.

1)Has Budge proposed that the play-offs be scrapped for 2 years?

2) This would only happen after the 2 years have passed, yes?

3) See season 1974 / 75, 8 down from a top league of 18 to form a middle league. 14 down from a league of 20 to form the 3rd tier. If you know what you are playing for from the beginning of the season, it is not as unfair as being relegated on a points per game basis, out of the blue, after 3/4 of the season has been played.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974–75_Scottish_Football_League

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Bairn in Exile

[Hank von Hell]

Wonder what Budge will do once this one fails , she's not going away you know.

This is her only chance to redeem herself with the fans who once lauded her for her business acumen. Unfortunately for her she's made a right arse of it on the football side swooning at Levein's every disastrously thought out move.

Even worse she was hoping to get her money back from the fans buyout which she can now wave bye bye to I'd expect.

Such a shame but at least she's still smiling.

  

[Jack Burton]

1)Has Budge proposed that the play-offs be scrapped for 2 years?
2) This would only happen after the 2 years have passed, yes?
3) See season 1974 / 75, 8 down from a top league of 18 to form a middle league. 14 down from a league of 20 to form the 3rd tier. If you know what you are playing for from the beginning of the season, it is not as unfair as being relegated on a points per game basis, out of the blue, after 3/4 of the season has been played.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974–75_Scottish_Football_League
 

Budge has suggested play offs should remain in place but depending on when the season starts has also suggested no promotion or relegation for next season.

Her proposal is even more unfair in that it relegates the bottom 4 in league 1 to the bottom tier with no promotion for Cove. Assuming no promotion next year then you would have 5 teams fighting for 4 places just to remain right back where they should be anyway.

Promoting the top 2 in each league with no relegation would have been the fairest outcome.

[Bairn in Exile]

10 minutes ago, Jack Burton said:

Budge has suggested play offs should remain in place but depending on when the season starts has also suggested no promotion or relegation for next season.

Her proposal is even more unfair in that it relegates the bottom 4 in league 1 to the bottom tier with no promotion for Cove. Assuming no promotion next year then you would have 5 teams fighting for 4 places just to remain right back where they should be anyway.

Promoting the top 2 in each league with no relegation would have been the fairest outcome.

And the simplest.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, Shadwell Dog said:

Why would montrose and east fife vote no to promotion and decent money from bigger crowds?

Theres no guarantee that we'll go back to what we have in two years time. At that point the plan is to look again at the structure and see what's right for scottish football. I would presume that after 2 years any new structure will surely have to be voted on again, and who knows the 14 14 14 may prove very successful and they may just stick with it.

You're coming across more desperate than a Hearts supporter.

[Mon_The_Fife]

Get this reconstruction idea in the bin. I’m sick of hearing about it, under the guise of ‘what’s good for Scottish football’ where in reality it’s to try and save Hearts.

There is no way that 14-14-14 will pass any vote so it’s about time that Budge accepted the relegation and moved on.

[Mantis Toboggan]

Doesn’t look like championship clubs will vote for it

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8359477/amp/Scottish-Championship-clubs-set-REJECT-proposal-Hearts-owner-Ann-Budge-three-leagues-14.html

Edited May 27, 2020 by Mantis Toboggan

[Stag Nation]

1 hour ago, Bairn in Exile said:

1, it is not as unfair as being relegated on a points per game basis, out of the blue, after 3/4 of the season has been played.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974–75_Scottish_Football_League

 

It's hardly "out of the blue" - they'd been bottom of the league for months, and were showing no sign of improvement.

[Bairn in Exile]

57 minutes ago, Stag Nation said:

It's hardly "out of the blue" - they'd been bottom of the league for months, and were showing no sign of improvement.

"I predict that there will be a pandemic in 2020 and all football leagues in Scotland will be stopped" - Mystic Meg  Stag Nation

Edited May 27, 2020 by Bairn in Exile

[Shadwell Dog]

4 hours ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

You're coming across more desperate than a Hearts supporter.

I'm just asking a simple question. There must be a reason they'd vote against it but I cant work out why. I would've thought that  it could only be good for the two of them.

[Shadwell Dog]

4 hours ago, Mantis Toboggan said:

Doesn’t look like championship clubs will vote for it

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8359477/amp/Scottish-Championship-clubs-set-REJECT-proposal-Hearts-owner-Ann-Budge-three-leagues-14.html

Will they not have to have another vote in 2 years time to change it back or to  anything else anyway? The championship clubs can just veto it then.

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, Shadwell Dog said:

Why would montrose and east fife vote no to promotion and decent money from bigger crowds?

Theres no guarantee that we'll go back to what we have in two years time. At that point the plan is to look again at the structure and see what's right for scottish football. I would presume that after 2 years any new structure will surely have to be voted on again, and who knows the 14 14 14 may prove very successful and they may just stick with it.

That’s part and parcel of why they might. Very few teams, including Falkirk and Raith, would feel good voting for this proposal simply because of the implied bloodbath at the end of the two years. Let’s play it out, after two years of 14-14-14, with 1 or 2 up and down after year one.

A) 14-14-14 is retained. Not a terrible option, but the least likely. Reduces the payouts in the Premiership, if they are to maintain any semblance of the current tiered payout system, simply because of 14 vs 12 teams. 14 also results in a fair chance of a slightly smaller average attendance in the top league and a significant average attendance drop in the second league.

B) 12-10-10-10 returns. Most likely, and causes a bloodbath. Assuming they keep 1 up/down and 3+1 playoff for up/down, here’s what could happen after the second year.

—Teams 1-10 in the Top Division are “safe”, team 11 is in relegation playoffs, teams 12-14 are relegated.

—In the Second Division, teams 2-6 are “safe”, with 2-4 in the playoff for promotion, team 1 is promoted, team 7 is in a relegation playoff and teams 8-14 are relegated to reconstituted League One.

—In the revised Third Division, teams 1-4 are promoted to League One, teams 5-7 are in a playoff.

***Note that it is likely the playoffs between the second and third division would be discarded in this year, but it’s still a turnover of a large percentage of the divisions.

C) Something else is necessary to satisfy the power brokers, and who knows what.

 

The unknowns of buying this pig in a poke, especially after seeing how the SPFL handled this voting, suggests that any number of teams would be better off with keeping the current situation. Brora and Kelty have no vote, so who among the rest would truly feel secure enough, or desperate enough, to vote for such a proposal, knowing a possible decimation is ahead. Hearts will vote for it, Partick will vote for it, Stranraer probably would vote for it...but who else? The League One teams moving up to the expanded Championship would be making a huge gamble that they could finish top 6 or 7 of a 14 team Championship or they face the return of seaside league play. Moving into the Championship would require expanded spending, with the clear threat of a significant cut in income in two years...gaining promotion in the current system is less risky, since only one team hits the trapdoor, and a second has a chance to play its way out.  Under the 14-14-14 proposal, it’s entirely possible that none of the current Championship teams would be in the new Championship for 2022-2023, with most having been dropped into League One.

[Shadwell Dog]

36 minutes ago, TxRover said:

That’s part and parcel of why they might. Very few teams, including Falkirk and Raith, would feel good voting for this proposal simply because of the implied bloodbath at the end of the two years. Let’s play it out, after two years of 14-14-14, with 1 or 2 up and down after year one.

A) 14-14-14 is retained. Not a terrible option, but the least likely. Reduces the payouts in the Premiership, if they are to maintain any semblance of the current tiered payout system, simply because of 14 vs 12 teams. 14 also results in a fair chance of a slightly smaller average attendance in the top league and a significant average attendance drop in the second league.

B) 12-10-10-10 returns. Most likely, and causes a bloodbath. Assuming they keep 1 up/down and 3+1 playoff for up/down, here’s what could happen after the second year.

—Teams 1-10 in the Top Division are “safe”, team 11 is in relegation playoffs, teams 12-14 are relegated.

—In the Second Division, teams 2-6 are “safe”, with 2-4 in the playoff for promotion, team 1 is promoted, team 7 is in a relegation playoff and teams 8-14 are relegated to reconstituted League One.

—In the revised Third Division, teams 1-4 are promoted to League One, teams 5-7 are in a playoff.

***Note that it is likely the playoffs between the second and third division would be discarded in this year, but it’s still a turnover of a large percentage of the divisions.

C) Something else is necessary to satisfy the power brokers, and who knows what.

 

The unknowns of buying this pig in a poke, especially after seeing how the SPFL handled this voting, suggests that any number of teams would be better off with keeping the current situation. Brora and Kelty have no vote, so who among the rest would truly feel secure enough, or desperate enough, to vote for such a proposal, knowing a possible decimation is ahead. Hearts will vote for it, Partick will vote for it, Stranraer probably would vote for it...but who else? The League One teams moving up to the expanded Championship would be making a huge gamble that they could finish top 6 or 7 of a 14 team Championship or they face the return of seaside league play. Moving into the Championship would require expanded spending, with the clear threat of a significant cut in income in two years...gaining promotion in the current system is less risky, since only one team hits the trapdoor, and a second has a chance to play its way out.  Under the 14-14-14 proposal, it’s entirely possible that none of the current Championship teams would be in the new Championship for 2022-2023, with most having been dropped into League One.

Is it not a simple case of saying right if you want this to go through we have to have another vote in 2 years time to pass any change whether it be back to what we have now or something totally different.  Should then be easy enough for teams to veto any change that involves relegating loads of sides.

I would say though that surely east fife and montrose have nothing to lose by going up anyway. They'll make a lot more money in the second tier even if they end up back in the seaside leagues in 2 years time. 

[CALDERON]

15 minutes ago, Shadwell Dog said:

Is it not a simple case of saying right if you want this to go through we have to have another vote in 2 years time to pass any change whether it be back to what we have now or something totally different.  Should then be easy enough for teams to veto any change that involves relegating loads of sides.

I would say though that surely east fife and montrose have nothing to lose by going up anyway. They'll make a lot more money in the second tier even if they end up back in the seaside leagues in 2 years time. 

Depends when the season starts.  If the season is played behind closed doors, they have everything to lose by playing in a league that won't be in front of any fans.

It will likely matter little.  As many lower league clubs can vote for this as they want, it requires an 11-1 vote in the Premiership.  Just can't see that. 

[Shadwell Dog]

8 minutes ago, CALDERON said:

Depends when the season starts.  If the season is played behind closed doors, they have everything to lose by playing in a league that won't be in front of any fans.

It will likely matter little.  As many lower league clubs can vote for this as they want, it requires an 11-1 vote in the Premiership.  Just can't see that. 

They would have the option of whether to play or not though. Budges idea apart from saving hearts is that with the second league being bigger it's easier to get enough teams together that can play. Or that's what it says in her proposal anyway.

[TxRover]

48 minutes ago, Shadwell Dog said:

Is it not a simple case of saying right if you want this to go through we have to have another vote in 2 years time to pass any change whether it be back to what we have now or something totally different.  Should then be easy enough for teams to veto any change that involves relegating loads of sides.

I would say though that surely east fife and montrose have nothing to lose by going up anyway. They'll make a lot more money in the second tier even if they end up back in the seaside leagues in 2 years time. 

OK, I went back and reread all the available details of the “proposal”, and it “seems* to mean:

1) This is a two year action, and at the end of that time, another league structure must be established.

2) It is not clear what format would be used for year three if there wasn’t an agreement reached between the SPFL teams, but it’s likely it would be back to 12-10-10-10.

3) The wording of the reaction by Championship teams suggests no promotions or relegations at the end of 2021-2022, simply either the drop back to 12-10-10-10 or the change to the new format replacing that...which would screw the winners of the second level completely and the third level somewhat.

Given that data, at the end of 2021-2022 (which could be the next season played, not the second...it seems the proposal is for 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, regardless of if 2020-2021 is played), the following would be the default scenario:

Teams A1-A12 remain in the top division, teams A13 and A14 join teams B1-8 in the new second division, teams B9-14 join teams C1-4 in the new third division and teams C5-14 form the new fourth division. On the whole, this is a screw for the entire Championship/Second Level, which easily explains why they would vote no. It’s less bad, relatively, for the Premiership/First Level, however it certainly gives the weaker teams a fear. League One gets a few of extra teams up a relative level for a year or two, with possible financial implications that could hurt them in three years, League Two gets, in my opinion, the shaft...but that might vary depending upon promotion/relegation at the very bottom.

Lets consider some nightmare scenarios, that explain why the top two leagues will vote no. First, 2020-2021 is scratched except for the top level, at the end of the season, who would be relegated and who would be promoted? No one...Premiership likes that, the Championship votes no...OR, let play 2020-2021, and Hearts fumbles around again and gets relegated to the second level. At the end of 2021-2022, Hearts has fallen to 9th in the second level, due to extreme financial distress (under 14-14-14, the second level crowds would be a bit smaller on average) and Administration points deductions. So then Hearts (or any other unlucky ex-Premiership team) starts 2022-2023 in the redone League One, every top level teams can see this possibility, and votes no...etc.