Coronavirus and the Scottish Championship

[Shadow Play]

5 hours ago, virginton said:

If there is no prospect of fans at games then there is no point in starting games at this level next month. All you are doing is giving the government an excuse to not include your business in any future support package for industries that will be significantly impacted for the next nine months as well. If you play, you can operate. 

Clubs lolloping ahead under the delusion that guilt-tripping fans into watching some shitey stream will see them through until they waltz back into grounds is going to send football at this level into a far bigger hole than would otherwise prove the case. 

Agreed in principle BUT there is no guarantee the government will be willing or able to support industries to the level they have to date.  

A bigger issue is that it is far from certain any vaccine will work.  Yes governments around the world are making the right noises about vaccines but their policies on all things Covid to date has been to drip feed the public the bad news.  That’s not a criticism of governments- it’s just the way things have got to be to try and keep life (economy) as normal as possible.

Covid-19, and indeed other future Covid strains strains, may be with us for many, many years.  It could be years before large gatherings are allowed again.  Indeed if any future Covid strain is more deadly it may be years before many fans will have the confidence to return in numbers - even if they were allowed to attend.

 If football is going to survive all this clubs may need to make radical changes to their future budgets.

Who knows what will happen?  I’m fairly certain though we will be the last to know.

[vikingTON]

There won't be as much government support as before: there will however likely be some sort of support package in place for industries that cannot operate at all under existing restrictions. As matchday revenue massively outweighs TV money or prize money as a source of income, the bottom three SPFL clubs should place themselves within the 'can't operate right now' category rather than give the government a good reason to devote its limited funds to sectors that will remain or become closed again.

 

[Skyline Drifter]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

As matchday revenue massively outweighs TV money or prize money as a source of income,

 

Whilst agreeing with your point generally, I don't think that's particularly true. It's not true for us and I wouldn't have thought it is for you either. For Championship clubs who aren't getting thousands of fans a week the prize money might actually be bigger than matchday income. It certainly won't outweigh it "massively". Possibly for your Dundee's and Dunfermline's with bigger average gates and certainly for Hearts it will.

Not that it changes the point anyway. Trying to trade in the medium to long term with no match day revenue is futile. Certainly in terms of funding full time football anyway.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, virginton said:

As matchday revenue massively outweighs TV money or prize money as a source of income....

 

48 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Whilst agreeing with your point generally, I don't think that's particularly true. It's not true for us and I wouldn't have thought it is for you either. For Championship clubs who aren't getting thousands of fans a week the prize money might actually be bigger than matchday income. It certainly won't outweigh it "massively". Possibly for your Dundee's and Dunfermline's with bigger average gates and certainly for Hearts it will.

Rough numbers, last year in League One Raith saw about 1,000 season tickets and 900 PATG tickets. For all practical purposes, £13 per ticket for 1,900 times a full season of 18 home games is a wee bit less than £450,000. That’s nearly four times prize money for number one in League One, but does carry a load of expenses with it. In a normal season, I suspect QoS would be around £225,000 in match day ticket revenues, much closer to the prize money for around eighth or so in the Championship, so worth the expenses, SD’s correct in that argument...on the whole, with the reduced season and all, there are probably no more than 12-15 clubs whose match day revenues would be massively higher than the other streams.

That doesn’t invalidate any of the points made about the shitstorm that the lower leagues are sailing into, and I seriously doubt that the SG understands the financial precipice that fitba will face with another shutdown. I also don’t think they understand the depth of connection people feel to their teams.

[Hammerafc]

Why is something relatively low risk such as attending outdoor sports events socially distanced not allowed, but attending shops, pubs, restaurants etc indoors or even playing sports indoors and outdoors with far more risk are allowed.

These businesses should be allowed to trade and keep afloat the same as every other sector that's been reopened.

[Thereisalight..]

15 minutes ago, Hammerafc said:

Why is something relatively low risk such as attending outdoor sports events socially distanced not allowed, but attending shops, pubs, restaurants etc indoors or even playing sports indoors and outdoors with far more risk are allowed.

These businesses should be allowed to trade and keep afloat the same as every other sector that's been reopened.

That’s the million dollar question. They’ve said from day 1 that outside lowers the risk of transmission greatly. Crazy that we can’t have a few hundred fans at Championship level and below, yet we can have hundreds inside busy shopping centres and lots crammed in restaurants 

[Scary Bear]

42 minutes ago, TxRover said:

 

Rough numbers, last year in League One Raith saw about 1,000 season tickets and 900 PATG tickets. For all practical purposes, £13 per ticket for 1,900 times a full season of 18 home games is a wee bit less than £450,000. That’s nearly four times prize money for number one in League One, but does carry a load of expenses with it. In a normal season, I suspect QoS would be around £225,000 in match day ticket revenues, much closer to the prize money for around eighth or so in the Championship, so worth the expenses, SD’s correct in that argument...on the whole, with the reduced season and all, there are probably no more than 12-15 clubs whose match day revenues would be massively higher than the other streams.

That doesn’t invalidate any of the points made about the shitstorm that the lower leagues are sailing into, and I seriously doubt that the SG understands the financial precipice that fitba will face with another shutdown. I also don’t think they understand the depth of connection people feel to their teams.

Football does seem to be getting the shitty end of the stick. It’s essentially outdoors and in the Scottish lower leagues there are an abundance of spare seats at most grounds. Surely safer in a football stand than it is sitting on a bus, for example. Do the government ‘get’ football? I don’t think they do.

[The Ghost of B A R P]

The SG almost certainly don’t ‘get’ football... but it’s up to football, in these circumstances, to make sure they do. The SPFL should be arguing on behalf of the lower leagues that something like 15-20% capacity should be allowed into what are essentially open-air spaces, with all appropriate measures in place to maximise safety; and that any restrictions beyond that will have to come with some kind of financial support package.

The argument is ‘let us operate in a way that gives us a chance of surviving; if you won’t or can’t, you’ll need to support us until we’re through the pandemic’.

[Guest Flash]

Potentially no crowds before the end of March in England.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/54246745

[BIGdavieT]

The biggest concern appRently is not the stadium itself but everything associated with going to it. The travel, pub etc.

[jagsfan57]

The SG almost certainly don’t ‘get’ football... but it’s up to football, in these circumstances, to make sure they do. The SPFL should be arguing on behalf of the lower leagues that something like 15-20% capacity should be allowed into what are essentially open-air spaces, with all appropriate measures in place to maximise safety; and that any restrictions beyond that will have to come with some kind of financial support package.
The argument is ‘let us operate in a way that gives us a chance of surviving; if you won’t or can’t, you’ll need to support us until we’re through the pandemic’.

Of course the premise is that the SPFL actually care about lower league football

[Ro Sham Bo]

If it's March down there it'll be at least April up here.

I wonder how many supporters will be lost to the game as a result?

The thought of being restricted to watching streams all season doesn't much appeal. I suspect after a few weeks I'll have lost interest in this season. 

[Scary Bear]

On 22/09/2020 at 21:24, BIGdavieT said:

The biggest concern appRently is not the stadium itself but everything associated with going to it. The travel, pub etc.

They need to try and find a better solution. Pubs are open to limited numbers of people. Travel is happening every day on buses and trains. People are travelling to shops, parks, etc. Why can’t football be open to a limited number of people?

Edited September 24, 2020 by Scary Bear

[Skyline Drifter]

4 hours ago, TxRover said:

 

Rough numbers, last year in League One Raith saw about 1,000 season tickets and 900 PATG tickets. For all practical purposes, £13 per ticket for 1,900 times a full season of 18 home games is a wee bit less than £450,000. That’s nearly four times prize money for number one in League One, but does carry a load of expenses with it. In a normal season,

I'd be very surprised if you are averaging as much as £13 per ticket in League 1  over that sort of numbers. What were you charging to get in and what were concessions / Kids prices? How much discount was a season ticket given more than half your gate was on one? I think you'll have over-estimated that by close to £100k.

But yeah, for a decently supported League 1 club like Raith were and certainly like Falkirk and Thistle are now, match day revenue will be way above prize money.

Edited September 22, 2020 by Skyline Drifter

[Skyline Drifter]

8 hours ago, The Ghost of B A R P said:

Clubs would go a full year having to meet their fixed costs with no income. Some wouldn’t even survive that. Then there’s the cost of mothballing and restarting the operation (safety certificates, etc).

When clubs start building squads in a normal summer, they do so on the basis of a (more or less) balanced budget; they know what they have to spend on the basis of the season just past. If there’s no season, and no income, every team in the lower leagues would be starting from scratch on the basis of some level of deficit. Some might be able to do that through directors putting their hands in their pocket, most would need some kind of additional financial support.

Better to put a package in place to prevent that happening than to have to come up with something to revive a zombie.

I don’t think the SG are particularly clued up on football in general, and lower-league football in particular, but if anyone in the SG shares the view that ‘there are too many clubs in Scotland’... well, you can see how that might pan out.

Overall, not having a season at all is a huge risk.

Depends what their fixed costs are. We could mothball fairly easily. Appreciate others with bigger overheads couldn't. I fail to see particularly what these costs of mothballing and restarting are over and above starting any other season. You need a safety certificate every season, it's not more expensive because you went away for a year. Indeed you potentially save the cost of paying for one for a period.

You'd certainly have an easier 'balanced budget' if you waited till you knew support was allowed than starting up on the hope that it will be allowed soon. At the end of the day, if a club loses £50,000 by shutting for a year and £100,000 by playing with no crowds then it's not in any way better to have done so. Each club will have to work out for themselves what the respective costs are and make a judgement but given how far down the road to playing we are the costs of not playing are now far higher than they would have been so I don't see it happening now. I don't think starting in October was particularly the right decision to have made but we are there now and we need to get on with it.

[TxRover]

3 minutes ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I'd be very surprised if you are averaging as much as £13 per ticket in League 1  over that sort of numbers. What were you charging to get in and what were concessions / Kids prices? How much discount was a season ticket given more than half your gate was on one? I think you'll have over-estimated that by close to £100k.

But yeah, for a decently supported League 1 club like Raith were and certainly like Falkirk and Thistle are now, match day revenue will be way above prize money.

Drop it to £11 and you lose around £68,000...the numbers are fungible, the reality is there are four types* of clubs:

1) Secure top level clubs

2) Remaining top level and highly supported clubs

3) Financially stable clubs (most with some reserves)

4) Financial perilous clubs (often with limited resources)

Some of the second, and many of the fourth type of clubs cannot survive unless SG pumps in some money. The first type can probably survive a no spectator year, some of the second can and some can find enough community support to stagger through, type three clubs will make it if they planned well and can get a little help, the fourth type are likely up shit creek.

*Rangers are a special case...top level, highly supported and likely to be one of the first to go tits up.

[Skyline Drifter]

2 minutes ago, TxRover said:

Drop it to £11 and you lose around £68,000...the numbers are fungible, the reality is there are four types* of clubs:

1) Secure top level clubs

2) Remaining top level and highly supported clubs

3) Financially stable clubs (most with some reserves)

4) Financial perilous clubs (often with limited resources)

Some of the second, and many of the fourth type of clubs cannot survive unless SG pumps in some money. The first type can probably survive a no spectator year, some of the second can and some can find enough community support to stagger through, type three clubs will make it if they planned well and can get a little help, the fourth type are likely up shit creek.

*Rangers are a special case...top level, highly supported and likely to be one of the first to go tits up.

I dropped it to £10 and I'm not convinced you'll even be getting that. Again, what were you charging, what was the concession and Under 16 price? How much discount did season ticket holders get?

I thought I was "wordy" but I had to look up "fungible"!

I doubt many clubs have really budgeted for no fans at all until say March. Most would have expected fans by January and hoped to have them earlier. They've probably all over-estimated the take up of live stream sales. I'm seriously concerned that once the novelty wears off the take up won't be anywhere near a physical attendance though it may be partly offset by bigger away supports and perhaps more international customers than I always thought we would have. With that in mind if we end up not having significant match day income for 6 months + I think some of them will have serious problems.

[Rovers_Lad]

Walk up

Adults £16,

Over 65s, disabled and young£10

Under 16s £8.

A parent and child £22.

 

 Season tickets

Adult £250/ Only £240 if you manage to ‘Refer a Rover’

Young Adult ticket(under 21)£150 

Over 65s £150

Less abled £150 (with carer free of charge if required. 

Juvenile £40 for first 200 young fans and £75 thereafter 

Parent and Child £250 for first 40 tickets and  £290 thereafter  and £325 once subsidised tickets have gone.

(One adult season ticket must be purchased to receive one U16 book free of charge)

40 FREE under 16 tickets and 200 reduced priced under 16 tickets thanks to a generous donation of £10,000 from our friends at Raith Supporters Trust.

 

 

 

I,ll let you two batter out the sums

Edited September 23, 2020 by Rovers_Lad

[TxRover]

16 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

I thought I was "wordy" but I had to look up "fungible"!

I doubt many clubs have really budgeted for no fans at all until say March. Most would have expected fans by January and hoped to have them earlier. They've probably all over-estimated the take up of live stream sales. I'm seriously concerned that once the novelty wears off the take up won't be anywhere near a physical attendance though it may be partly offset by bigger away supports and perhaps more international customers than I always thought we would have. With that in mind if we end up not having significant match day income for 6 months + I think some of them will have serious problems.

I think the reality of serious problems is probably being discussed right now across fitba boardrooms after the mention of March. There is no doubting that few, if any, clubs planned for it being this bad, and now the reality of this revenue kneecapping is coming into focus. There have to be some clubs that simply can’t do it, but there are also the blinders your acquire when you support a club and think you can find a way to squeeze out that necessary £10-20-30,000. If we play, and there are no crowds until March+, unless streaming brings unforeseen revenues, another government rescue package appears, or the SPFL shares extra funds (I know, there are no extra, but there is a lot of prize money that could be adjusted...and, yes, I know, fat chance) the lineup of clubs comprising the SPFL will be significantly changed next summer, with a number of the current clubs melting away in this financial tsunami.

[Skyline Drifter]

3 hours ago, Rovers_Lad said:

Walk up

Adults £16,

Over 65s, disabled and young£10

Under 16s £8.

A parent and child £22.

 

 Season tickets

Adult £250/ Only £240 if you manage to ‘Refer a Rover’

Young Adult ticket(under 21)£150 

Over 65s £150

Less abled £150 (with carer free of charge if required. 

Juvenile £40 for first 200 young fans and £75 thereafter 

Parent and Child £250 for first 40 tickets and  £290 thereafter  and £325 once subsidised tickets have gone.

(One adult season ticket must be purchased to receive one U16 book free of charge)

40 FREE under 16 tickets and 200 reduced priced under 16 tickets thanks to a generous donation of £10,000 from our friends at Raith Supporters Trust.

 

 

 

I,ll let you two batter out the sums

So ball park, £58 for every 6 people who went less VAT = about £8 per person assuming a rough mix of one third each of adults, pensioners and kids. It might be slightly higher towards adults and away from kids, I can't be sure your mix exactly but 1/3 each is a relatively common industry standard. If you were averaging 1,900 a week (were you? that's a lot to average) then circa £275k in gate receipts assuming every ticket is paid for and you don't give away swathes to schools, hospitals, etc. Somewhere close to half of Txrover's original guess.

It's still considerably more than the prize money at that level though.