Oil Price Cuts

[D.A.F.C]

ANOTHER GAY MAN

ARTHUR DALEY

[tarapoa]

8 hours ago, coprolite said:

I thought it was Russia boosting production to make US shale uneconomical? 

 

Lots of games being played.

Russia refused to align with OPEC's suggestion of cutting production during the COVID-19 crisis  to keep prices stable during what will likely be an economic standstill.

Saudi spat the dummy, and instead  upped levels aimed at squeezing the price to hurt the Russians.

The Russians seem to feel it will hurt the Americans, especially the smaller independents, even more and could be prepared to live with this for a while - especially in a US election year, where Wall Street is suffering.

Meanwhile the North Sea is caught in the crossfire - and a likely cashflow crisis in the industry could ensue, with discretionary spending and certain contracts being deferred or cancelled. 

As for the comment on independence relying on this.  It's so volatile that it should always be the cherry on the cake - but when you note 1% of world  equity is the Norwegian pension fund (a nation of 5 million next to the N.Sea) - then there may be something in not sending all the proceeds to an exchequer based 500 miles south.

 

Edited March 11, 2020 by tarapoa

[coprolite]

40 minutes ago, gannonball said:

I only see one bullet point regarding oil revenue? Which says its to budget on a low oil price?

Not exactly a masterplan funded by oil.

It's the only source of revenue mentioned and it is described as important. So important that it can stabilise the economy.  So important that it forms part of the macroeconomic framework. Not exactly not a masterplan funded by oil either. 

Sure, i overstated and simplified the case a bit for effect. I felt it needed to be simple in keeping with the tone of the thread and the apparent capabilities of some of its contributors. 

[gannonball]

Just now, coprolite said:

It's the only source of revenue mentioned and it is described as important. So important that it can stabilise the economy.  So important that it forms part of the macroeconomic framework. Not exactly not a masterplan funded by oil either. 

Sure, i overstated and simplified the case a bit for effect. I felt it needed to be simple in keeping with the tone of the thread and the apparent capabilities of some of its contributors. 

So basically you were wrong as well as arrogant. Thanks for clearing that up.

[coprolite]

1 minute ago, gannonball said:

So basically you were wrong as well as arrogant. Thanks for clearing that up.

Not sure where you got that from. Not wrong at all. 

[Shandon Par]

Nice of the Russians to keep flying their bombers over the oil fields too. I’m sure it’s just a welfare check that everyone on them is okay given that there’s a nasty cold going around. 

[Andy_K_97]

2 hours ago, D.A.F.C said:

3 hours ago, jamamafegan said:

ANOTHER GAY MAN

ARTHUR DALEY

JOHNNY DAVIDSON 

[Bairnardo]

JOHNNY DAVIDSON 

YOU'RE VERY HELPFUL

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, tarapoa said:

The Russians seem to feel it will hurt the Americans

How long do you think the Russians could stand the hit seeing as it's a huge proportion of their revenue? Not sure how it works, but is most of it sold on long term contracts or at spot price?

[gkneil]

1 hour ago, Bairnardo said:

1 hour ago, Andy_K_97 said:

JOHNNY DAVIDSON 

YOU'RE VERY HELPFUL

THERE’S AN AWFY SMELL O PISH IN HERE

[charon]

As the Budget is starting, be interesting to see if one level of the red diesel subsidy will be scrapped

 

https://vertikal.net/en/news/story/34936/cpa-appeals-against-plan-to-abolish-red-diesel

 

This would make things vastly more expensive.

[philpy]

THERE’S AN AWFY SMELL O PISH IN HERE

IT'S A JAPS EYE

[sjc]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

How long do you think the Russians could stand the hit seeing as it's a huge proportion of their revenue? Not sure how it works, but is most of it sold on long term contracts or at spot price?

Only about a third of the Russian economy is in oil apparently. It will certainly hit the American shale oil economy which is heavily indebted and barely breaks even at the best of times.

[sjc]

41 minutes ago, philpy said:

1 hour ago, gkneil said:

THERE’S AN AWFY SMELL O PISH IN HERE

IT'S A JAPS EYE

A what?

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, sjc said:

Only

! With the oil price halved that's 1/6th of their revenue they're down.

Edited March 11, 2020 by welshbairn

[sjc]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

! With the oil price halved that's 1/6th of their revenue they're down.

As opposed to 80%+ of Saudi Arabia's, not to mention the $ being tied to its value......

It's a political game imo. They'll turn the taps off once they've made their point I suspect.

[tongue_tied_danny]

4 hours ago, Andy_K_97 said:

JOHNNY DAVIDSON 

^^^^ UP TO HIS KNEES IN FUCKING COWPAT

[beefybake]

9 hours ago, tarapoa said:

Lots of games being played.

Russia refused to align with OPEC's suggestion of cutting production during the COVID-19 crisis  to keep prices stable during what will likely be an economic standstill.

Saudi spat the dummy, and instead  upped levels aimed at squeezing the price to hurt the Russians.

The Russians seem to feel it will hurt the Americans, especially the smaller independents, even more and could be prepared to live with this for a while - especially in a US election year, where Wall Street is suffering.

Meanwhile the North Sea is caught in the crossfire - and a likely cashflow crisis in the industry could ensue, with discretionary spending and certain contracts being deferred or cancelled. 

As for the comment on independence relying on this.  It's so volatile that it should always be the cherry on the cake - but when you note 1% of world  equity is the Norwegian pension fund (a nation of 5 million next to the N.Sea) - then there may be something in not sending all the proceeds to an exchequer based 500 miles south.

 

It will. A very large chunk of the US shale oil industry, and explorations, are mired in debt, and junk bond finance.  Shale oil is only viable above a certain oil price , so much in the way of an extended oil price war, and that part of US industry is hit hard. 

All in all, though, with just about every major car manufacturer trying to release electric vehicles as fast as they can,  renewable energy on the up, climate emergency, etc etc. the days are numbered for countries basing their whole economy on oil.    Soon, oil will be like the tobacco companies, still money to be made, but... like driving when you're absolutely blootered, .... socially unacceptable. 

Edited March 11, 2020 by beefybake

[philpy]

YOUR DUGS GOT TITS

[tarapoa]

All in all, though, with just about every major car manufacturer trying to release electric vehicles as fast as they can,  renewable energy on the up, climate emergency, etc etc. the days are numbered for countries basing their whole economy on oil.    Soon, oil will be like the tobacco companies, still money to be made, but... like driving when you're absolutely blootered, .... socially unacceptable. 

 

Around 600 products need oil, including things that save lives....

 

The oil industry needs to do a better marketing job inreminding people of this.

 

Electrification of domestic vehicles in most developed countries will clearly reduce demand over time, but possibly won’t have the severe impact some anticipate.