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Oil Price Cuts


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The long game could benefit us.

 

Saudi wants to squeeze Russia - but Russia could sit it out, and force some of the American shale brigade out of business.

 

After the virus stuff is gone, maybe a few American outfits will have gone too - leading to a bounce back to a more attractive price than the $60 mean of recent times, and decent prosperity for the North Sea and its marginal fields.

 

That will require cashflow to see some through the next few months and there will be victims in the supply chain though, which will clearly please Boostin’ Kev for reasons best known to himself.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, tarapoa said:

The long game could benefit us.

 

Saudi wants to squeeze Russia - but Russia could sit it out, and force some of the American shale brigade out of business.

 

After the virus stuff is gone, maybe a few American outfits will have gone too - leading to a bounce back to a more attractive price than the $60 mean of recent times, and decent prosperity for the North Sea and its marginal fields.

 

That will require cashflow to see some through the next few months and there will be victims in the supply chain though, which will clearly please Boostin’ Kev for reasons best known to himself.

 

 

 

I thought it was Russia boosting production to make US shale uneconomical? 

45 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

f**k Aberdeen.

No voting c***s.

I thought the independence masterplan was funded by the oil? 

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4 hours ago, Geez a Braco said:

There's various strands and grades of idiot that are allowed on here.   If you actually believe this you break all levels of idiot tape available.      

There's folk the live in Scotland and possible post on here who think the SNP make oil projections!     Absolute madness on stilts.   

This may or may not be a good point. Unfortunately i have no idea what you are on about. 

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5 hours ago, Geez a Braco said:

There's various strands and grades of idiot that are allowed on here.   If you actually believe this you break all levels of idiot tape available.      

There's folk the live in Scotland and possible post on here who think the SNP make oil projections!     Absolute madness on stilts.   

Tell it to the fiscal comission working group

 

 9.01: Overview - Macroeconomic Framework of an Independent Scotland

Monetary Policy

  • Formal monetary union with UK, with Bank of England (the Bank) as central bank.
  • Ownership and governance of the Bank undertaken on an explicit shared basis, reflecting Scotland's current implicit share of existing assets.
  • Monetary policy set according to economic conditions across Sterling Zone.
  • The Scottish Government to input into appointment process to key positions within Bank of England (for example, MPC and FPC), its remit and objectives.
  • Representative from Scottish Treasury attends MPC meetings in similar capacity to existing HM Treasury representative (i.e. in a non-voting capacity).
  • Matters of collective decision making on governance addressed within an overarching agreement between both governments. An institutional arrangement, a 'Macroeconomic Governance Committee', to be established.

Financial Stability

  • Objective of the Scottish Government must be to promote financial stability and ensure that tax-payers are never again forced to step-in and bail-out private institutions.
  • The proposition centres on two key aspects of financial stability from a macroeconomic perspective -
    • Supervision and Oversight; and
    • Crisis Management, Resolution and Deposit Guarantee.

Supervision and Oversight

  • Scotland to establish one (or more) independent competent authorities to oversee financial regulation.
  • Given the close linkages between macroeconomic stability and financial stability, key elements of prudential regulation (micro and macro) to be discharged on a consistent basis across the Sterling Zone.
  • Other areas of financial regulation (i.e. non-prudential elements), such as consumer protection, form a linked, though distinct, aspect of the regulatory environment. These could be discharged in Scotland, however a degree of consistency across the Sterling Zone is likely to be desirable, given the integrated financial services sector and links to prudential regulation.

Crisis Management, Resolution and Deposit Guarantee

  • Financial crises require close coordination of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy.
  • Issues of financial stability - including lender of last resort facilities for financial institutions - and crisis management to be coordinated on a pan-Sterling Zone basis.
  • If and when any input was required from a fiscal authority - for example an indemnity - this could be coordinated through the 'Macroeconomic Governance Committee'.
  • This could be discharged by both governments in accordance with the shareholder framework set out above.

Fiscal Policy

  • Fiscal policy (along with other economic policies such as regulation) provides the principle new levers to grow the economy and to tackle key challenges in Scottish society.
  • Negotiation of fair and equitable share of UK public sector liabilities and assets. A transitional arrangement whereby outstanding debt was gradually transferred to both governments would be a sensible and efficient solution.
  • To promote stability within the proposed monetary union, there is merit in devising a 'fiscal sustainability agreement'. This should cover both governments and be credible. This would not cover individual taxes and/or spending but overall net borrowing and debt. This would provide the flexibility to develop policies to promote growth and maintain economic performance.
  • Given the importance of oil and gas revenues, a stability fund should be established, with the government planning budgets on a cautious estimate for oil revenues and then investing any upside variability in a fund to guard against future unexpected falls in revenue or asymmetric shocks.
  • Fiscal Commission to be established, with an advisory role.
  • The Scottish Government should establish an independent Scottish Monetary Institute and would be responsible for setting its remit.
  • This Institute could take responsibility for a number of key functions, which it could undertake independently, including research, monitoring developments in the financial sector and data collection. It would work closely with the Bank.
  • Merit in placing key macroeconomic functions, such as designated financial regulator, in such an independent body. Would also be a key focal point and reporting body for EU-wide institutions and structures and other international organisations.
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1 hour ago, coprolite said:

Tell it to the fiscal comission working group

 

 9.01: Overview - Macroeconomic Framework of an Independent Scotland

Monetary Policy

  • Formal monetary union with UK, with Bank of England (the Bank) as central bank.
  • Ownership and governance of the Bank undertaken on an explicit shared basis, reflecting Scotland's current implicit share of existing assets.
  • Monetary policy set according to economic conditions across Sterling Zone.
  • The Scottish Government to input into appointment process to key positions within Bank of England (for example, MPC and FPC), its remit and objectives.
  • Representative from Scottish Treasury attends MPC meetings in similar capacity to existing HM Treasury representative (i.e. in a non-voting capacity).
  • Matters of collective decision making on governance addressed within an overarching agreement between both governments. An institutional arrangement, a 'Macroeconomic Governance Committee', to be established.

Financial Stability

  • Objective of the Scottish Government must be to promote financial stability and ensure that tax-payers are never again forced to step-in and bail-out private institutions.
  • The proposition centres on two key aspects of financial stability from a macroeconomic perspective -
    • Supervision and Oversight; and
    • Crisis Management, Resolution and Deposit Guarantee.

Supervision and Oversight

  • Scotland to establish one (or more) independent competent authorities to oversee financial regulation.
  • Given the close linkages between macroeconomic stability and financial stability, key elements of prudential regulation (micro and macro) to be discharged on a consistent basis across the Sterling Zone.
  • Other areas of financial regulation (i.e. non-prudential elements), such as consumer protection, form a linked, though distinct, aspect of the regulatory environment. These could be discharged in Scotland, however a degree of consistency across the Sterling Zone is likely to be desirable, given the integrated financial services sector and links to prudential regulation.

Crisis Management, Resolution and Deposit Guarantee

  • Financial crises require close coordination of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policy.
  • Issues of financial stability - including lender of last resort facilities for financial institutions - and crisis management to be coordinated on a pan-Sterling Zone basis.
  • If and when any input was required from a fiscal authority - for example an indemnity - this could be coordinated through the 'Macroeconomic Governance Committee'.
  • This could be discharged by both governments in accordance with the shareholder framework set out above.

Fiscal Policy

  • Fiscal policy (along with other economic policies such as regulation) provides the principle new levers to grow the economy and to tackle key challenges in Scottish society.
  • Negotiation of fair and equitable share of UK public sector liabilities and assets. A transitional arrangement whereby outstanding debt was gradually transferred to both governments would be a sensible and efficient solution.
  • To promote stability within the proposed monetary union, there is merit in devising a 'fiscal sustainability agreement'. This should cover both governments and be credible. This would not cover individual taxes and/or spending but overall net borrowing and debt. This would provide the flexibility to develop policies to promote growth and maintain economic performance.
  • Given the importance of oil and gas revenues, a stability fund should be established, with the government planning budgets on a cautious estimate for oil revenues and then investing any upside variability in a fund to guard against future unexpected falls in revenue or asymmetric shocks.
  • Fiscal Commission to be established, with an advisory role.
  • The Scottish Government should establish an independent Scottish Monetary Institute and would be responsible for setting its remit.
  • This Institute could take responsibility for a number of key functions, which it could undertake independently, including research, monitoring developments in the financial sector and data collection. It would work closely with the Bank.
  • Merit in placing key macroeconomic functions, such as designated financial regulator, in such an independent body. Would also be a key focal point and reporting body for EU-wide institutions and structures and other international organisations.

I only see one bullet point regarding oil revenue? Which says its to budget on a low oil price?

Not exactly a masterplan funded by oil.

Edited by gannonball
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