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How secure is Nicola Sturgeon's position?


Ludo*1

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On 21/02/2020 at 21:51, Ludo*1 said:

Only the BBC (Or Daily Express) would publish such an article about the one leader in the UK with a positive approval rating.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51575899

I'm more concerned the repeated rumours that Cherry is sharpening her knives - that'd be a disaster IMO. The next leader of Scotland (Of which I hope it'll be Sturgeon for a long, long time) will hopefully be Angus Robertson.

Sturgeon will last longer than James McPake.

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On 21/02/2020 at 22:07, TrebleTwenty said:

It is constant anti Scotland everything from the BBC. It is of no surprise they are gunning for Sturgeon

Being anti-SNP/Anti-Sturgeon is not at all the same thing as being anti-Scotland.

5 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:
6 hours ago, NotThePars said:


She’s just appeasing the hogs demanding it this year. Can’t imagine anyone in the upper echelons of the SNP genuinely wants or believes they’ll get a referendum this year.

I agree, and whether the redoubtable marchers agree or not, there is a solid bloc of the Scottish electorate which would not back independence right now but many of whom probably would do as Brexit, Johnson and Cummings unravel everything they come into contact with.

My guess is that about 1/4 of the electorate would be hardly line yessers and another 1/4 would be hard line Unionists.  The 'soft middle' will be swayed by jobs, mortgages and income so if UK PLC thrives over the lifetime of this parliament then the union is safe.

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7 hours ago, Stinky Bone said:

with 80% of the available Scottish seats at westminster being SNP we should be telling them that we are Independent already.  We shouldn't be waiting for westminster permission to hold a referendum, we do not need one.  

UDI

Brilliant.  You had a referendum and lost so you should declare independence because Westminster won't grant a referendum.

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15 minutes ago, ali_91 said:

There undoubtably is a soft middle, but it’s blatantly not fifty percent. I’d guess 40% on both sides will be extremely unlikely to shift no matter what. 

Motivating that 40% to turn out is an issue in itself for both sides. Obvs the Yes side will want to be polling comfortably before they call it but No especially are going to struggle to turn people out. I would be amazed if turnout comes anywhere the levels it did in 2014. Maybe Johnson will allow it eventually and smuggle in a threshold for Yes to clear.

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Also Sturgeon's position is cemented because there's nobody else. There's a real dearth of established talent across the British Isles atm and it would be daft for the SNP to jettison one of the most popular politicians in Scotland and Britain for some dullard.

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41 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Brilliant.  You had a referendum and lost so you should declare independence because Westminster won't grant a referendum.

 

It was lost because many believed they would be remaining in the EU, and not dragged out against their will.

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Joanna Cherry is a terrible person, and her narcissism has the potential to be extremely damaging to both the SNP, and getting out of the Union. 
 
I’d most likely still vote SNP in a marginal seat if she was leader, but it’d leave a sour taste in my mouth. 

I joined snp about 2 months ago. I reckon I’d leave if Cherry was in charge. (Im aware me leaving means nothing). But I’m sure I’m not alone
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8 hours ago, Stinky Bone said:

I get the feeling that with 80% of the available Scottish seats at westminster being SNP we should be telling them that we are Independent already.  We shouldn't be waiting for westminster permission to hold a referendum, we do not need one.  

UDI

 

 

If Scotland unilaterally declared independence there's not a single country on the face of the planet that would recognise us.

Maybe North Korea, just for the lols, but that would be it.

Our own courts wouldn't recognise it either. It would be an absolutely meaningless thing to do, which would have no consequence except carry a very high risk of back-firing.

Folk calling for this are the immediate problem for Sturgeon, she has to handle them carefully while not giving in to any of their hair-brained schemes. There seems to be a strong correlation between them and the Cherry-McAlpine view of the world, and that's why, despite huge popularity figures and a very recent electoral landslide, it's not unreasonable to talk about Sturgeon's future.

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29 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

It was lost because many believed they would be remaining in the EU, and not dragged out against their will.

Ah that old trope:  It's all about the EU?  Do you honestly believe this shite?

The Natters were calling for a 2nd vote within days of the first one as they don't respect democracy.  Even our own indyref2 thread was started about a year before the Brexit vote.

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7 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Ah that old trope:  It's all about the EU?  Do you honestly believe this shite?

The Natters were calling for a 2nd vote within days of the first one as they don't respect democracy.  Even our own indyref2 thread was started about a year before the Brexit vote.

 

I honestly believe that much of, if not most of Scotland, would prefer to remain within the EU.

 

 

Edited by ICTJohnboy
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Cherry running against Robertson carries the real risk of tearing the party apart, especially in a constituency like Edinburgh Central. The establishment wing of the party will be furious, because Cherry's already got a job while Robertson is outside. He can't try his hand in another seat now, it's this or nothing.

One can only speculate on why Cherry would want to switch from Westminster to Holyrood, especially when her only successes have been on constitutional issues, and none of her reasons are likely to be good for the SNP. Edinburgh Central is precisely the sort of place where the terf wars are at their most fierce so we can expect all-out war between the students and the oldies, the professional middle class women and the LGBTs, the fundies and the gradualists.

If Cherry wins the nomination there will be scores, maybe hundreds of resignations, with many going straight over to the Greens. Others will stay in the party but switch constituency. Last time the SNP lost the seat by 610 votes while the Greens took 4,644 votes. Again, they could prevent the SNP from winning the seat.

For no reason other than what appears to be personal ambition, Cherry has lobbed a grenade into the party's fault-lines. 

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28 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I honestly believe that much of, if not most of Scotland, would prefer to remain within the EU.

I agree with you and I would prefer to remain within the EU too.  However, to think that calls for indyref2 are precursored on the Brexit vote  is imbecilic  The clamour for a second vote started within days of the triumph of democracy and the natters are looking for any peg, however shoogly, on which to hang their tear-soaked Glengarries..

Edited by The_Kincardine
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18 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

I agree with you and I would prefer to remain within the EU too.  However, to think that calls for indyref2 are precursored on the Brexit vote  is imbecilic  The clamour for a second vote started within days of the triumph of democracy and the natters are looking for any peg, however shoogly, on which to hang their tear-soaked Glengarries..

 

Was there a real clamour for Indyref2 within days of Indyref1? That would have been a complete waste of time, but circumstances have changed considerably since 2014. Your mate Boris, has done much to boost support for the calls for Scotland to decide its own future.

Lets face it, there's fanatics on both sides of the great political spectrum. Maybe you're more in tune with this "lady" and her thoughts?

 

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12 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

Was there a real clamour for Indyref2 within days of Indyref1? That would have been a complete waste of time, but circumstances have changed considerably since 2014. Your mate Boris, has done much to boost support for the calls for Scotland to decide its own future.

Lets face it, there's fanatics on both sides of the great political spectrum. Maybe you're more in tune with this "lady" and her thoughts?

 

I saw clips from 'this lady' over on the QT thread and saw how her embarrassing call for a strong border was ridiculed by the Natter horde who want border guards at Gretna.  It just confirmed my view that Little Englanders = Little Scotlanders.

Those of us who despise walls treat both of you with disdain.

Edited by The_Kincardine
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