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Ludo*1

How secure is Nicola Sturgeon's position?

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Only the BBC (Or Daily Express) would publish such an article about the one leader in the UK with a positive approval rating.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51575899

I'm more concerned the repeated rumours that Cherry is sharpening her knives - that'd be a disaster IMO. The next leader of Scotland (Of which I hope it'll be Sturgeon for a long, long time) will hopefully be Angus Robertson.

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It is constant anti Scotland everything from the BBC. It is of no surprise they are gunning for Sturgeon, I won't click on the link to read, but no doubt unnamed sources are mentioned. I expect the nonsense attacks towards Sturgeon to be ramped up in the coming months. 

I don't mind Cherry, but she is not FM material IMO. Has she not got that WOKE lot gunning for her?

I agree, Robertson would be my pick, but he will have to wait, as Sturgeon, will only walk away if she loses any future indyref.

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16 minutes ago, TrebleTwenty said:

It is constant anti Scotland everything from the BBC. It is of no surprise they are gunning for Sturgeon, I won't click on the link to read, but no doubt unnamed sources are mentioned. I expect the nonsense attacks towards Sturgeon to be ramped up in the coming months. 

I don't mind Cherry, but she is not FM material IMO. Has she not got that WOKE lot gunning for her?

I agree, Robertson would be my pick, but he will have to wait, as Sturgeon, will only walk away if she loses any future indyref.

 

There won't be an Indyref2 until Nicola's pretty sure she can win it.

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Sturgeon is probably a wee bit more vulnerable than she's portrayed to be. She's essentially presiding over managed decline in various aspects of Scottish society and economy. There are high profile failings with hospitals, mental health provision, education and rail that don't look good. A series of nationalisations (Prestwick, Ferguson) are costing money and reputation. She's lost a few allies to scandal (Derek McKay, Alex Salmond), she's lost a few lower profile but effective people to pastures new (Fergus Mutch, David Miller). She doesn't seem to have a coherent plan for her MPs and for her councils. A lot of what she does gives.me the impression of someone waiting to see if events change the landscape.

I've no idea who would replace her, we have some charismatic people in the party but a lot of them are still not respected by the old guard (constituency SNP can be very deferential and dogmatic which has caused some friends to cancel their memberships in frustration). I think the fine with trans/baffling issue with trans debate is a bit of a proxy conflict stemming from this.

One thing for sure, it's not going to be Joanna Cherry. Joanna Cherry is the SNP version of Murdo Fraser. An effective brawler when pointed at the right target but far too abrasive to lead.


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2020 is going to be an extremely tough year for her. My money's on her not seeing it out as FM.

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Would be funny albeit concerning if someone as boring and unlikeable as Cherry somehow deluded herself into thinking she could have the same level of public approval or charisma that Sturgeon and Salmond possessed at their heights.

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Cherry should stick to parliament in her current role and the court room after it. 

I don't disagree with some of what she says but neither side of the trans debate/bun fight come off well at times and she's very guilty of being abrasive where its not needed. 

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Cherry is articulate and clever. But she's disagreeable and she's a a tit. No chance of winning anything with her at the helm.

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I can think of very few less likeable characters in the SNP than Joanna Cherry.

I’ve got an inexplicable fondness for Humza Yousaf, so I’d like it to be him. Or, in an ideal world, the absolute top boi that is Andy Wightman to be FM in a Green/SNP coalition. Neither have any chance of happening though.

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If there is genuinely criticism of Sturgeon for soft-pedalling on a second referendum then I don't understand it. We've had ten years of Westminster-imposed austerity, Brexit, Conservatives in power for 10 years and a likely minimum  of another 5 years of majority rule, Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, a very right-wing, English nationalist Cabinet and yet support for independence appears to be about 50-50. If there's not a resounding lead for it at this point, you wonder what circumstances are necessary for that to happen.

If a second referendum is lost then it's goodnight, game over, see ya in 30 years, maybe. There will be no third act.

Hot-heads who want a second referendum immediately probably thought they would win the first time around.

The obvious strategy for the SNP and the Greens is to get another mandate in the 2021 elections and take it from there. It's more important that they get the power to call a referendum at a time of their choosing than it is to actually call one soon, and the more the UK government sidelines, ignores and rejects them, the more the Labour Party insults people who support independence, the more chance there is of support increasing. IMO Labour and the Tories are more likely to blow it than the SNP are to win it.

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4 hours ago, GordonS said:

If there is genuinely criticism of Sturgeon for soft-pedalling on a second referendum then I don't understand it …

… The obvious strategy for the SNP and the Greens is to get another mandate in the 2021 elections

There's part of the problem. Sturgeon keeps saying there's a mandate, which is true, and we have to have a referendum in 2020. So why are we seeking ANOTHER mandate in 2021? How many do we need? What message does that send? There's a sense that Sturgeon isn't dictating circumstances, circumstances are dictating her.

(Not that I want her gone; I think few in the SNP would have her appeal among non-SNP folk, especially outside Scotland)

Edited by Mr Heliums

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10 hours ago, MixuFixit said:



One thing for sure, it's not going to be Joanna Cherry. Joanna Cherry is the SNP version of Murdo Fraser. An effective brawler when pointed at the right target but far too abrasive to lead.

 

 

9 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Would be funny albeit concerning if someone as boring and unlikeable as Cherry somehow deluded herself into thinking she could have the same level of public approval or charisma that Sturgeon and Salmond possessed at their heights.

How can someone be both "abrasive" and "boring"?

ETA: Re Sturgeon - as an "outsider" I quite like Nicola Sturgeon, she comes across well, speaks well and generally presents a good image, despite the anti media coverage. She seems to me to be a very good and capable politician, far more so than some in the (Westminster) government or on the opposition benches.

Mind you, I thought the same of Alex Salmond, and he couldn't deliver.

Edited by Jacksgranda

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How can someone be both "abrasive" and "boring"?
ETA: Re Sturgeon - as an "outsider" I quite like Nicola Sturgeon, she comes across well, speaks well and generally presents a good image, despite the anti media coverage. She seems to me to be a very good and capable politician, far more so than some in the (Westminster) government or on the opposition benches.
Mind you, I thought the same of Alex Salmond, and he couldn't deliver.

For me her position on this pointless trans "debate" is boring and her demeanour is abrasive.

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Surely the last thing the SNP needs right now is a leadership contest.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

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9 hours ago, GordonS said:

If there is genuinely criticism of Sturgeon for soft-pedalling on a second referendum then I don't understand it. We've had ten years of Westminster-imposed austerity, Brexit, Conservatives in power for 10 years and a likely minimum  of another 5 years of majority rule, Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, a very right-wing, English nationalist Cabinet and yet support for independence appears to be about 50-50. If there's not a resounding lead for it at this point, you wonder what circumstances are necessary for that to happen.

If a second referendum is lost then it's goodnight, game over, see ya in 30 years, maybe. There will be no third act.

Hot-heads who want a second referendum immediately probably thought they would win the first time around.

The obvious strategy for the SNP and the Greens is to get another mandate in the 2021 elections and take it from there. It's more important that they get the power to call a referendum at a time of their choosing than it is to actually call one soon, and the more the UK government sidelines, ignores and rejects them, the more the Labour Party insults people who support independence, the more chance there is of support increasing. IMO Labour and the Tories are more likely to blow it than the SNP are to win it.

I agree. As much as I would love for Scotland to leave the UK as soon as possible, the timing of the second independence referendum is really important and should only be done at a time when it looks like independence would win.

It's critically important, because the fate of Scotland depends on it. If we lose again, we are shackled to this sinking corpse of a union forever.

Nicola knows what she's doing. It's a waiting game for now.

I said at the time he became PM that I was pleased that Boris is now in Downing Street with his crazy rightwing friends. Absolutely no one can do more to further the cause for Scottish Independence than those clowns.

Just give it time.

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6 hours ago, Mr Heliums said:

There's part of the problem. Sturgeon keeps saying there's a mandate, which is true, and we have to have a referendum in 2020. So why are we seeking ANOTHER mandate in 2021? How many do we need? What message does that send? There's a sense that Sturgeon isn't dictating circumstances, circumstances are dictating her.

(Not that I want her gone; I think few in the SNP would have her appeal among non-SNP folk, especially outside Scotland)

The last Scottish election was in 2016. It was not long after the 2014 election and before the EU Referendum, so the issue of a second referendum was not a huge or decisive factor. Arguably the vote for Brexit changed that, but it didn't obviously present the pro-independence majority with a mandate to go again. Another election win for the block would remove any democratic argument against a second referendum.

Tactically, pinning it to a 2021 election also buys time, which is needed to build a majority.

On the pro-union side, it's not clear whether the better option is to get another referendum done quickly and take the high-risk, high-reward route, or kick it further down the line, possibly permanently if support for independence doesn't increase. And more to the point, there's a total absence of leadership on the pro-union side, with Labour and the Tories very unlikely to chum up again, and with a Tory leadership that probably doesn't really care either way.

Just my opinions obv. I've been wrong a lot lately.

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I agree. As much as I would love for Scotland to leave the UK as soon as possible, the timing of the second independence referendum is really important and should only be done at a time when it looks like independence would win.
It's critically important, because the fate of Scotland depends on it. If we lose again, we are shackled to this sinking corpse of a union forever.
Nicola knows what she's doing. It's a waiting game for now.
I said at the time he became PM that I was pleased that Boris is now in Downing Street with his crazy rightwing friends. Absolutely no one can do more to further the cause for Scottish Independence than those clowns.
Just give it time.
This. With respect, Scottish Independence will not be achieved by anything other than a combination of hard graft, persuasion, strategy as opposed to tactics, and above all timing in the face of a Westminster Government which is determined to test the existing UK structure to breaking point.

On the aspect of Sturgeon's position, despite the political and personal turbulence which has beset the SNP, she is still the most commanding figure in the frame. Indeed, most other party leaders would have been taken under by now.

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5 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

 

How can someone be both "abrasive" and "boring"?

 

You've forgotten Malky already?

Fair play if so. 

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2 hours ago, The Gypsy King said:

Nicola knows what she's doing. It's a waiting game for now.

That's fine – except she's saying the opposite and demanding a referendum this year. It's mixed messages. 

And yes, I agree it will take a while.  Actually, I've always felt since 2014 that the tide would have to go out before it came in again, higher and that, ironically, the best thing for independence might have been a Labour Holyrood administration up against Westminster Tories.. But they're too inept to actually win an election.

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