Marshmallo Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, Highland Bully Wee said: . Is that cause you've been pumped twice from an apparent poor Clyde outfit? No. It's because your supporters, players and board glorify a rapist and you also have a racist on your books. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loon74 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Second bottom is our only hope , too negative at home , Stranraer on Saturdays performance past looked a better side than the loons and should of took all 3 points 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Etherglider Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 On 17/02/2020 at 14:13, Marshmallo said: No. It's because your supporters, players and board glorify a rapist and you also have a racist on your books. You forgot to include the word nazi in your reply. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirscottyoung Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tell you what clyde look in a bad place if results stay the same 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirscottyoung Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Results getting worse for them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 8 minutes ago, sirscottyoung said: Tell you what clyde look in a bad place if results stay the same Aye, Cumbernauld’s a shithole. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angus of the Mo Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Beggining to look like Stranraer and Clyde 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullyWeeStonehouse Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Just put our name down for relegation the now. Cheers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TamClyde Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Hi relegation x 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blootoon87 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Clyde will be fine, we're going down through the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loon74 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 We escaped with a point last night , 2 poor sides but Peterhead were the better team , our only hope is second bottom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Courtesy of @Fuctifano in the Championship Relegation Battle thread, we have this stat based analysis: "I’ve also done these for leagues one and two (can’t really do the prem past the split) and the corresponding league one figures for 8th are 30/35/39 and 4th are 47/56/59 which shows the different “bunching” of the two leagues i.e. 35 points in league one will more likely than not keep you up but in the championship it’ll keep you up less than 5% of the time, but a higher total will be needed for the promotion play offs in L1" Those figures are in relation to how much it will take to finish 8th and how much it will take to get 4th. So 30 will be the minimum for survival, 35 will be more likely than not to stay up and 39 is over 90% certain to stay up. Given those figures, I think Dumbarton will shitfest their way to another two wins and a draw no bother. Stranraer need another 14 points just to reach that minimum figure and they can't buy a win, difficult to see anything other than 10th at this stage. 2 points separate Clyde, Peterheaad and Forfar and all 3 are still to play each other once. Tight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Burton Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Clyde have got to play Forfar, Peterhead and Stranraer all at home plus Stranraer away. Will go a long way to deciding if we stay up or not.Our record against the teams in the bottom half of the league is awful. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullyWeeStonehouse Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Jack Burton said: Clyde have got to play Forfar, Peterhead and Stranraer all at home plus Stranraer away. Will go a long way to deciding if we stay up or not. Our record against the teams in the bottom half of the league is awful. We've already played Stranraer at home twice. 6-1 and 3-3. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 5 hours ago, The Moonster said: Courtesy of @Fuctifano in the Championship Relegation Battle thread, we have this stat based analysis: "I’ve also done these for leagues one and two (can’t really do the prem past the split) and the corresponding league one figures for 8th are 30/35/39 and 4th are 47/56/59 which shows the different “bunching” of the two leagues i.e. 35 points in league one will more likely than not keep you up but in the championship it’ll keep you up less than 5% of the time, but a higher total will be needed for the promotion play offs in L1" Those figures are in relation to how much it will take to finish 8th and how much it will take to get 4th. So 30 will be the minimum for survival, 35 will be more likely than not to stay up and 39 is over 90% certain to stay up. Given those figures, I think Dumbarton will shitfest their way to another two wins and a draw no bother. Stranraer need another 14 points just to reach that minimum figure and they can't buy a win, difficult to see anything other than 10th at this stage. 2 points separate Clyde, Peterheaad and Forfar and all 3 are still to play each other once. Tight. Interesting. 56 seems a bit low for probably getting 4th place in L1. Montrose will hit 56 if they pick up 50% of their remaining points. Given that their form for the season is collecting 53% of available points but any form stretching back that doesn't include their horrendous opening 7 games would be much higher. Airdrie and East Fife are also collecting points at a rate higher than 50%. 56 might do it if one of the three sides have a poorer than form last quarter but I wouldn't bet on that right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I'll get the full thing (it's on my work computer) in the morning. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
As Easterly as it gets! Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 13 hours ago, loon74 said: We escaped with a point last night , 2 poor sides but Peterhead were the better team , our only hope is second bottom I didnt think there was much between the sides. A month on from the January window and we're struggling to find any kind of balance. I think if we could win two games on the trot it would put pressure on Forfar and Clyde, but likewise if either of them got a couple of wins.......... Lots of scrappy games to come. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullyweehutch Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 Hello darkness my old friend, its time to go down again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roman_bairn Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 17 hours ago, Jack Burton said: Clyde have got to play Forfar, Peterhead and Stranraer all at home plus Stranraer away. Will go a long way to deciding if we stay up or not. Our record against the teams in the bottom half of the league is awful. You’re record against everyone in this division, bar ourselves, is awful. If that disappears on Saturday you are in a really bad place..... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 (edited) OK, usual pinch of salt disclaimer… General premise is simulated 1000 seasons from here to the end of the season with team strengths based on Elo ratings (these were manually input at start of season and have adjusted over the season based on clubelo.com forumla). I re-ran them after inputting the Tuesday games. From those 1000 seasons, the bare minimum points a team got 8th with was 30 points (happened 3 times out of 1000) and the minimum points for 4th was 50 points (happened 2 times out of 1000) Obviously this is unlikely, so looking up the charts, teams who got 35 points finished 8th or higher 51% of the time and teams who got 39 points finished 8th or higher 94% of the time. For the promotion playoffs a team who got 56 points finished 4th or higher 53% of the time (55 points was 44%) so this is the point where it’s more likely than not, and 60 points was 4th or higher 96% of the time (59 points is 89% of the time) The 100% safety marks at the moment are 42 points and 64 points respectively. Also (and take a bigger pinch of salt) attached is the table based off the 538.com football predictions format, and how many points a team averaged over the 1000 seasons. Falkirk are rated by the model as slightly better than Raith (big wins affecting GD helps) though a Raith win and Falkirk loss at the weekend would flip this as it’s that tight. Also looks like a good dogfight for 4th and to avoid 9th. Edit - slight error in the table, Dumbarton should be 98% safe not "yes" for safe, copied down one row too far Edited February 27, 2020 by Fuctifano 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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