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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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14 minutes ago, The DA said:

Projecting the graph below suggests we'll hit the 1000 pd in about 10 days time unless the curve starts to level off before then.

 

graph.png

Incidentally that will be approximately the time it takes for this thread to reach 1000 pages. 
 

Congratulations UK and US btw.

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55 minutes ago, throbber said:

We aren’t going to see 500 deaths a day for a month, it will go up and up and will likely see 1000 in a day at our peak and then the numbers will start to reduce. 

Italy first went over 500 deaths in 24 hours on 20th March.  They've been well above that figure every day since. 766 yesterday.

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From the worldometer site, suggesting number of deaths in Italy and other countries could be a fair bit higher;

  • Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

    This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

    The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

    If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19  would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
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14 minutes ago, PauloPerth said:

Italy first went over 500 deaths in 24 hours on 20th March.  They've been well above that figure every day since. 766 yesterday.

^^^
Scaremongering.

Edited by throbber
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1 hour ago, Steven W said:

Coming round to thinking this virus will be among us for a good couple of years yet. Can't see pubs / restaurants... starting again in that timeframe.

Up there beside noone going abroad for years in the absolutely wild hysteria ranks

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1 hour ago, throbber said:

We aren’t going to see 500 deaths a day for a month, it will go up and up and will likely see 1000 in a day at our peak and then the numbers will start to reduce. 

There is not a chance we will hit 1,000 deaths a day in our peak.

In the UK yes, but not Scotland.

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2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Up there beside noone going abroad for years in the absolutely wild hysteria ranks

For some reason, I keep thinking of Herman's Hermits.  Gonnae stop typing 'noone'?  It's 'no one'. 

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Saw a tweet from an Irish lad in Beijing saying that he got out for dinner and drinks with his pals yesterday for the first time since January. They're testing everyone before they enter any buildings. I'd like to think we can move into a second phase of lockdown/quarantine once we have more comprehensive testing up and running.

All going well I'll be mwi in The Shed by the August bank holiday.

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9 minutes ago, pandarilla said:
20 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:
There is not a chance we will hit 1,000 deaths a day in our peak.
In the UK yes, but not Scotland.

That's a bold prediction. The rate of increase has been really fucking steep recently.

I don't think it's that bold. Countries with populations around ten times greater than Scotland and described as being "totally fucked" have capped off around the 1,000 mark.

It would be a wild anomaly for Scotland alone to get anywhere near that level.

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