Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[The_Kincardine]

9 minutes ago, GordonS said:

The only message Greta has is that we should listen to the science.

Do you reject science?

Depends on its role, Shirley?  Science is simply observing, recording and reproducing.  Science as prediction is little more than bookmaking.

[GordonS]

7 hours ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Absolutely. The media have got a stiffy about this and are loving the fear and scaremongering it’s generating 

 In the winter of 2017-18 a total of 3,157 ICU/HDU admissions of confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2018 to week 15 2019, including 312 deaths. How does that compare with the numbers being admitted to and dying in hospitals now? That was over the course of a full winter, too, not one day in April.

Over the last 5 winters we've had 12,000-28,000 excess mortality due to flu each winter in the UK. It'll be a while before we can compare this year's number for excess mortality with those. But bear in mind, those are 'do nothing' years - no social distancing, case isolation, hygiene, none of that. The modelled 'do nothing' figure for Covid-19 was around half a million deaths. Also, the 'do nothing' figure doesn't include anything about people dying of otherwise treatable conditions due to lack of resources.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports 

Lombardy has about twice the population of Scotland. They've had nearly 8,000 deaths in 4 weeks. In the same period in Scotland, at this time of year, the total number of people who die of all causes is about 4,500, fewer than half of whom die in hospital. It's not difficult to see how serious an outbreak on that level would be here. People who ought to survive would die.

Maybe the shit media are scaremongering - I wouldn't know, I don't follow it. But this is not an over-reaction.

[ayrmad]

18 minutes ago, GordonS said:

 In the winter of 2017-18 a total of 3,157 ICU/HDU admissions of confirmed influenza were reported across the UK from week 40 2018 to week 15 2019, including 312 deaths. How does that compare with the numbers being admitted to and dying in hospitals now? That was over the course of a full winter, too, not one day in April.

Over the last 5 winters we've had 12,000-28,000 excess mortality due to flu each winter in the UK. It'll be a while before we can compare this year's number for excess mortality with those. But bear in mind, those are 'do nothing' years - no social distancing, case isolation, hygiene, none of that. The modelled 'do nothing' figure for Covid-19 was around half a million deaths. Also, the 'do nothing' figure doesn't include anything about people dying of otherwise treatable conditions due to lack of resources.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports 

Lombardy has about twice the population of Scotland. They've had nearly 8,000 deaths in 4 weeks. In the same period in Scotland, at this time of year, the total number of people who die of all causes is about 4,500, fewer than half of whom die in hospital. It's not difficult to see how serious an outbreak on that level would be here. People who ought to survive would die.

Maybe the shit media are scaremongering - I wouldn't know, I don't follow it. But this is not an over-reaction.

Another week and there will only be one person on here thinking it's an overreaction, getting close to stopping doing excel as you tend to forget the numbers are people with family and friends. 

[Theroadlesstravelled]

The forecast is that New York will reach its apex on 9th April with 800 deaths per day.

California’s apex is predicted to be around 25th April with 100 deaths per day.

Both states had the same number of deaths at one point in March.

[bendan]

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

Maybe the shit media are scaremongering - I wouldn't know, I don't follow it. But this is not an over-reaction.

I agree that we need to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed, so I don't think a temporary shutdown is an over reaction, but even papers like the Guardian are highlighting outlier cases and pretending they are common (younger people dying). 

Your stats are odd. Are you saying the vast majority of the excess deaths caused by flu don't reach ICU? I didn't even know they tested for influenza. As with Covid-19, it's the possible subsequent pneumonia that kills.

[bendan]

On the fearmongering theme, BBC News is running a 'three harrowing stories of surviving COVID-19' feature on its website. 

We're going to have to make difficult decisions as a country very soon, but the media are not doing a good job of providing the rational perspective we'll need to make good long term choices. 

[Fullerene]

8 hours ago, Forest_Fifer said:

And then we have this idiot.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52130552?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5e8628f54e049e066f596755%26Man%20charged%20with%20bid%20to%20crash%20train%20into%20hospital%20ship%262020-04-02T19%3A56%3A22.042Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:c0bb0875-9aa1-43e0-9db1-e600f7c598e1&pinned_post_asset_id=5e8628f54e049e066f596755&pinned_post_type=share

 

I mean, what? Could have been really bad if he'd managed to drive his train 250m over open ground then across open water to get to the ship.

Upon further interrogation the arrested man revealed his name to be Dr Emmett Brown who was travelling with his wife Clara and sons Jules and Verne.

He appeared incoherent and his latest remarks were "I don't get it.  Are we still in the year 2020?  I think the virus stopped me getting up to 88".

The investigation continues. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Fullerene

[bendan]

7 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Report recommends universal mask wearing.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6ua7j979dbqb045/masks_final_n_HF_NA.pdf?dl=0

It's truly staggering that the WHO and the various Western government science advisors didn't realise having a cover over your mouth might help to reduce the transmission of droplets.

 

[ICTJohnboy]

22 minutes ago, bendan said:

It's truly staggering that the WHO and the various Western government science advisors didn't realise having a cover over your mouth might help to reduce the transmission of droplets.

 

 

Won't Get Fooled Again.

[jagfox]

 

 

Hancock getting hung out to dry?

[jagfox]

Lost in the Supermarket - The Clash...

 

 

[coprolite]

4 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

Depends on its role, Shirley?  Science is simply observing, recording and reproducing.  Science as prediction is little more than bookmaking.

Presumably you mean prediction of the exact rate of global warming or the exact numbers of people that will die of covid. 

Science has done a pretty good job of predicting things like black holes, the higgs boson etc. 

The bookmaking comparison is just nuts. What are you even taliking about? 

[Granny Danger]

Johnson, Hancock and co. are stumbling from one fiasco to another.  A bit of confusion and unpreparedness at the start was not surprising but as time goes on they are becoming less organised and effective not more.

Hancock’s pledge on testing will not be met and we are likely to see testing that produce incomplete and/or inaccurate results in an attempt to save face.

Once the worst of this is over people need to be held to account.

[ICTJohnboy]

10 minutes ago, jagfox99 said:

 

 

Hancock getting hung out to dry?

 

Him and his cohorts are a deceitful shower of lying b a s t a r d s.

[bendan]

9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Johnson, Hancock and co. are stumbling from one fiasco to another.  A bit of confusion and unpreparedness at the start was not surprising but as time goes on they are becoming less organised and effective not more.

Hancock’s pledge on testing will not be met and we are likely to see testing that produce incomplete and/or inaccurate results in an attempt to save face.

Once the worst of this is over people need to be held to account.

TBF, I'd have probably assumed, given that we have supposedly world leading research facilities, we had better testing capacity than the likes of Malaysia. I'd say it's the government advisors that need to be held to account most of all.

[Bing.McCrosby]

8 hours ago, virginton said:

There clearly are masks available as half of the space cadets in the supermarket are already wearing them. There are very few that would stop you from potentially catching the virus from the air around you (which should be directed to frontline staff) but plenty of more basic masks that would at least reduce the risk of spreading your own infection (potentially without any symptoms) to others.

It’d be a full-blown minter look but if it got the pubs and football back a bit earlier in return then it’s worth the sacrifice.

Your pictures were all over the Morton forums a few years ago.

Whether they offer virus protection or not you should definitely be wearing a mask.

[Sergeant Wilson]

25 minutes ago, bendan said:

TBF, I'd have probably assumed, given that we have supposedly world leading research facilities, we had better testing capacity than the likes of Malaysia. I'd say it's the government advisors that need to be held to account most of all.

Makes you wonder what all these scientists and researchers are up to. We get told they we are world leaders on all this stuff. They probably sit on the internet all day like the rest of us hoping we don't get caught if something happens.

[throbber]

46 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Deserved for starting a sentence with so.

And for shopping in home bargains.

[welshbairn]

5 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

Depends on its role, Shirley?  Science is simply observing, recording and reproducing.  Science as prediction is little more than bookmaking.

What's wrong with that? What odds would you give on the sun coming up tomorrow morning, based on scientific observation and modelling?

Edited April 3, 2020 by welshbairn

[Granny Danger]

52 minutes ago, bendan said:

TBF, I'd have probably assumed, given that we have supposedly world leading research facilities, we had better testing capacity than the likes of Malaysia. I'd say it's the government advisors that need to be held to account most of all.

I reckon it’s the people who have imposed austerity on us for the last 15 or so years who are culpable.