Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, MixuFixit said: A glimmer of optimism? worldwide cases dipped yesterday. It's happened before and then sprung back up mind. Is that first spike not China only? I think it's probably wise to either ignore it, as the rest of the Chinese data forms a curve, or ignore the Chinese data altogether as being reliable as a single day spike like that is ridiculously unlikely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throbber Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: OK Boomer. Assuming he was born in 1988 I think he just misses the cut off date for being a boomer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: We can vaccinate against flu and it still infects 500,000,000 (which seems a ridiculous number but based on 0.1%) Either the vaccinations are less effective than thought, a large chunk of people don't get vaccinated, or certain years have a flu variant that has a mortality rate similar to that of Covid-19 in under 50s, despite there being "a vaccine" The flu jag is to protect against known strains of flu afaik, so if no vaccination maybe multiply 'normal' deaths by a factor of 'pull-it-out-of-the-air'? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: Is that first spike not China only? I think it's probably wise to either ignore it, as the rest of the Chinese data forms a curve, or ignore the Chinese data altogether as being reliable as a single day spike like that is ridiculously unlikely. You do know why it "forms a curve" I'd assume? -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Bert Raccoon said: Think I may have a cough Hide contents You'll have more than a cough by the time she's finished with you... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, KnightswoodBear said: Bring a step ladder. Did you let ALL of your staff go? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Just now, cyderspaceman said: multiply 'normal' deaths by a factor of 'pull-it-out-of-the-air'? Would that not make me an expert? That is precisely what they are doing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Moomintroll Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Its fucking close for me to come through there and take your lunch money off you if this keeps up Grumpy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, throbber said: Assuming he was born in 1988 I think he just misses the cut off date for being a boomer. Maybe I just found 1988 to be a particularly lovely year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) Couple of things that I've learned in all this A) I love a graph B) You can spin all the numbers anyway you want to have negative / positive story (whichever is your preference) Edited March 31, 2020 by Steven W 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, welshbairn said: Club competition's heating up, New York storming up the table. Does anybody else find this graph totally bamboozling? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Marshmallo said: You do know why it "forms a curve" I'd assume? You want me to say because countries lock down. The alternate view is that it's already infected the vast majority of the population, and the number of those that will develop symptoms but haven't yet reduces every day. Without adequate antibody testing there's no way to tell for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said: Does anybody else find this graph totally bamboozling? Its pretty much the countries substituted with their biggest hotspot. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 9 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said: New York is in the shit cause the NYC major was telling people to go about their business and not bother with the virus. They'd have been better off with this guy in charge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA Baracus Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: The point I was trying to make was that it's quite possible the "model" was way out. If we are being honest, every prediction so far has been wrong. 'Experts' are guessing just as much as everyone else. They quite clearly have a hard on for an end of days type virus. Aye, we'be had enough of 'experts'! What do 'experts' know anyway?! Their years of study mean nothing! 7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Would that not make me an expert? That is precisely what they are doing. No, it isn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Be some laugh if the virus just disappears with no explanation. The tin foil consumption would be amazing. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said: Did you let ALL of your staff go? Furloughed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugster Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, Moomintroll said: 23 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: Its fucking close for me to come through there and take your lunch money off you if this keeps up Grumpy. Oh, well played! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, DA Baracus said: Their years of study mean nothing! I didn't say that, but the info we get changes every day. "Peak in late April if we do nothing. Let's flatten in to June" "Peak in June" Now the peak is predicted to be mid April, and that's with all the restrictions in place. "2 weeks behind Italy" "20,000 deaths" Italy will be around 20,000 deaths at the end of this but we "aren't like Italy because x,y and z" Don't get me wrong, the measures put in place have been correct to react to the data they've been getting. But that's what it is, a reaction. Their models and predictions have been utter nonsense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diamonds are Forever Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: You want me to say because countries lock down. The alternate view is that it's already infected the vast majority of the population, and the number of those that will develop symptoms but haven't yet reduces every day. Without adequate antibody testing there's no way to tell for sure. That doesn't tie in with the fact that throughout the process between 90-95% of people tested have come back as negative, and these are largely the ones who have symptoms so you'd expect the percentage of positive cases to be highest amongst that group. Some people may have had it and got rid of it and therefore test negative, but if the majority of people have had/have the virus as you say there is no way we'd be seeing such a small percentage of positive testing. Edited March 31, 2020 by Diamonds are Forever 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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