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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

I wish them nothing but success and said zero to suggest otherwise. Bizarre that you managed to assume I didn't. Point is Covid seems to flare up then simmer down randomly from country to country. Denmark doing great now doesn't mean they have "cracked it" (see Israel) it's just they are on a downward trajectory for now. A country will need a year plus of stability before they can be hailed as the model to follow. We expected cases to rise in Scotland but I doubt anyone predicted the numbers we are seeing. Ferguson was roundly pilloried for his 100k prediction for the UK on reopening. Per head we in Scotland might reach those levels if we maintain current growth for another couple of weeks. I wish no country anything but a swift return to normal but constant comparison to a perceived "success" is pointless when every country has huge demographic differences.

Anyway off for a day out with an overnighter in Glasgow, best to make the best of things despite my "negativity'

Everyone goes on and on about cases.

What does it matter?

This is now an endemic disease and we’ve just got to live(or die) with it.

In the late 60’s we had 80000 deaths due to Spanish flu and nobody bothered much.

Hospitals were packed out but that’s what they’re there for.

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8 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Everyone goes on and on about cases.

What does it matter?

This is now an endemic disease and we’ve just got to live(or die) with it.

In the late 60’s we had 80000 30,000 deaths due to Spanish Hong Kong flu and nobody bothered much.

Hospitals were packed out but that’s what they’re there for.

FTFY. UK Covid deaths 132,000 and counting, 4.5 million worldwide.

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20 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

No

The 68/69 flu outbreak had  80000 UK deaths on a much lower population and affected a lower aged cohort.

Okay, it was Asian but, so what.

I'm reading 30,000, depends where you look. Population was 55 million compared to 66 million, not enough to explain why the hit from Covid is far, far worse, in terms of deaths, hospitalisation and longevity.

Quote

The subsequent 1968 influenza pandemic—or “Hong Kong flu” or “Mao flu” as some western tabloids dubbed it—would have an even more dramatic impact, killing more than 30 000 individuals in the UK and 100 000 people in the USA

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247790/

Edited by welshbairn
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16 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I'm reading 30,000, depends where you look. Population was 55 million compared to 66 million, not enough to explain why the hit from Covid is far, far worse, in terms of deaths, hospitalisation and longevity.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247790/

 

Surely the hit from covid is because we have got to a stage where we are keeping folk alive far longer than we were in 68.

I believe that the average age of the covid deaths is still not much below the life expectancy figure. Might be wrong. I often am.

From a while back. 

Average age of those who had died with COVID-19 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

image.png.f44a8fb4b6c27e7dd3597801eab6bf61.png

Edited by Suspect Device
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Just now, Suspect Device said:

 

Surely the hit from covid is because we have got to a stage where we are keeping folk alive far longer than we were in 68.

I believe that the average age of the covid deaths is still not much below the life expectancy figure. Might be wrong. I often am.

Probably true, but if you make it to 80 your life expectancy is about another 10 years, so it's a bit of a bummer if it's cut short by covid, even at that age.

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5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Probably true, but if you make it to 80 your life expectancy is about another 10 years, so it's a bit of a bummer if it's cut short by covid, even at that age.

Would possibly depend on your quality of life. If i was suffering from dementia, covid would be a sweet release. Obviously not all folk would feel the same.

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11 hours ago, scottsdad said:

Our son, who is 16, has told us he wants a vaccine. We put no pressure on him - this was triggered by the flu vaccine letter from school. The wife and I always said it was his choice,  and now he has made it. Taking him today to a drop in centre. 

He had a few questions, mostly about how sore it is. 

Went to a drop in centre. Got pfizered. No problems. As he is 16 and nobody at home is immunocompromised, he only gets the one jag. I wasn't aware this was the case.  

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6 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

Would possibly depend on your quality of life. If i was suffering from dementia, covid would be a sweet release. Obviously not all folk would feel the same.

Even then it sounds like a horrible way to go, struggling to breathe.

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8 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Went to a drop in centre. Got pfizered. No problems. As he is 16 and nobody at home is immunocompromised, he only gets the one jag. I wasn't aware this was the case.  

They're waiting for the JCVI to ok the second jag, which is probable, depending on the data coming in from other countries.

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Elder daughter tested positive on lft today so been for pcr. 

Same with my youngest son yesterday. He is S4 and apparently had been in close contact with someone at school who had tested positive on Thursday.
My son only found out because he heard other pupils talking about it.
Waiting on our PCR results and while going for the test last night my son noticed a few other pupils from his school going for tests. So expect positive results to continue to increase.
As I work in social care I have been advised I need to self isolate for 10 days even if I test negative.
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Daily Cases Update:  Day 23 in a row of our 4th wave of infections, case rises up a large 10% to 572.5  Expect another rise of around 5% tomorrow as we crack through the 600 barrier. Still on target for 650-675 cases per 100K. Infectivity now 12.3%.

Kirkintilloch now Scotland's most infectious neighbourhood. 

Scotland now is the number 1 rising infection country in the world up well over 100% in last week. (Of any country having more than 1000 cases per day).

Scotland at 572.5 per 100K is number 6 in the world  (Any country over 1 million population). Interesting that Israel is surging also at 604.9

Figures for Jags absolutely pathetic.  1st Vaccines   3,401 to 2,615 ,  2nd vaccines  14,258 to 11,383  

Total Cases Scotland 7 days 19th August to 25th August were  28,430 now 31,295 up 10.11%, Positivity was 11.7% now 12.3%.  Cases per 100K were 520.1 now 572.5

Home Nations Daily update  :  UK Average  349.6 to 353.8 up 1.20%, England 332.0 to 331.2 down 0.24%, Wales 357.5 to 368.4 up 3.05%, Northern Ireland  626.0 to 633.4 up 1.18%

In Europe for travellers  Ireland  259.7 (Weekly change +6%),  Greece 223.3 (Weekly change +5%), France 207.3 (Weekly change -14%),  Switzerland 204.1 (weekly change +5%),  Albania 162.0 (weekly change up 64%), Portugal 160.4 (Weekly change +1%),  These are still the only main countries over 160 cases per 100K     Spain falls down to 137.5

Scotland peaks in Wave 3 at 425.1 for 27th June to 3rd July, (UK was 229.9) . Cases that day were 23,222 and positivity 10.8%

Scotland previously peaked in wave 2 at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

West Dunbartonshire   919.2 to 970.1  

East Dunbartonshire   846.9 to 964.6 Kirkintilloch West 1,934

North Lanarkshire  771.8 to 902.3  Up 75% in 3 days !!

Renfrewshire    710.7 to 801.0

East Renfrewshire  717.3 to 784.9  

Inverclyde  648.8 to 783.8 Up 40% in 2 days.

South Lanarkshire   692.9 to 764.6

Glasgow City  661.7 to 728.2

Argyll & Bute   652.0 to 700.0    

Clackmannanshire  655.1 to 643.4

City Of Edinburgh   573.5 to 616.5

Dumfries & Galloway  636.6 to 604.9  

North Ayrshire   501.3 to 554.2

Dundee City 481.8 to 534.9 

West Lothian   491.8 to 525.0

Midlothian   425.1 to 515.3

Falkirk   438.5 to 495.8

Stirling  448.6 to 486.8

South Ayrshire  412.0 to 461.9

East Lothian   437.4 to 461.5

Fife  410.6 to 443.4

East Ayrshire   371.7 to 423.5

Scottish  Borders    413.1 to 422.6

Highlands   353.4 to 398.8

Angus  279.7 to 320.3

Aberdeen City  270.2 to 309.1

Perth & Kinross  258.0 to 279.1

Aberdeenshire   251.9 to 274.6

Western Isles  147.2 to 162.3

Moray    142.1 to 153.6

Shetland Islands   122.4 to 122.4

Orkney Islands   58.0 to 58.0

Edited by superbigal
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It's odd that so many countries around the world made the same catastrophic decision over care homes. Maybe they didn't realise that the worst cases would be nearly exclusively amongst the elderly, so the so called bed blockers should have been left exactly where they were, especially if infected. Even poster child Sweden did the same.

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4 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Seriously? Even for life threatening emergencies? Where are you getting this from?

Its not for life threatening emergencies, Ambulance calls get triaged on a clinical basis, but the likes of a heart attack would get an emergency response. Its complicated, but like HSF has said things like waits for someone who’s fallen and broken their hip in an old folks home or a doctor referring in a patient who needed to be taken into hospital. 
The ambulance service in Scotland are really hard working people, genuinely not a slight on them, just highlights how chronically under funded and staffed the government has left them, our paramedics are genuinely first class. 

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