Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Distant Doonhamer]

3,464 new cases of COVID-19 reported  (3613 yesterday, 1383 one week ago)

33,710 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results

10.9% of these were positive (10.6% yesterday, 5.6% one week ago)

3 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (9 yesterday, 5 one week ago)

32 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 (34 yesterday, 39 one week ago)

320 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 (312 yesterday, 337 one week ago)

4,075,555 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 3,541,708 have received their second dose

[welshbairn]

[Granny Danger]

25 minutes ago, Geebee said:

Quite a few scientific studies now showing that masks do indeed make a difference... and that even standard 'non-surgical' masks work . ...

Quote...

“What we saw was a significant 20-30 percent reduction in the effective reproduction rate that correlated with that [mask wearing] policy, so it turned the epidemic around from case numbers that were increasing every day to a situation where we could see the numbers were getting back under control.”

'World-first study shows effectiveness of masks in preventing COVID transmission'
Burnet Institute   - 22 July, 2021

Extract:-

"...Study co-lead Professor Allan Saul said the policy change provided researchers with a unique opportunity to examine in real time the impact of masks in a community setting – a city of more than five million people – rather than clinical settings.

“The introduction of masks was the single most important control measure that took place last year in bringing Melbourne’s second wave under control,” Professor Saul, Burnet Senior Principal Research Fellow (Honorary), said.

“It was the critical step that turned it around.”

Professor Saul said the recent emergence of the Delta variant means that masks are even more important now than they were 12 months ago...."

“...Masks have a direct impact in stopping people from spreading the virus and they stop other people from getting the virus if they’re in an area where it’s been spread,” he said.

https://www.burnet.edu.au/news/1473_world_first_study_shows_effectiveness_of_masks_in_preventing_covid_transmission

 

Not sure how much attention you’ve been paying to this thread.  Facts are not welcome; particularly facts like these.

[Michael W]

You'd be very hard pushed to look at the case rates in England following introduction of mask wearing indoors and conclude that they helped control the epidemic.

Maybe Australia with its lower cases numbers was different. 

Edited August 21, 2021 by Michael W

[Detournement]

Pretty much anything that comes out of Australia can be ignored.

[Wee Bully]

2 minutes ago, Geebee said:

The scientific study that I posted a link to shows simply that mask wearing reduces covid exposure and transmission, end of.  That's a scientific fact according to this and other studies.   

Of course we are all entitled to our own layman's views, and we can even be armchair 'science researchers'' and put forward theories such as  "Maybe Australia with its lower cases numbers was different", or  "Pretty much anything that comes out of Australia can be ignored".
But that's like saying:  Gravity is different in Australia and can be ignored down there.  If this was our worldview we'd simply be in denial of the scientific facts.

Here's a link to the actual study in question.  Notice how various tried and tested research techniques are used to arrive at its conclusion, includig the use of "Possible confounders" for weeding out faulty data. 

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253510

Extract:-

The introduction of a mandatory mask policy was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 cases in a major metropolitan city
- [Study undertaken by] Nick Scott ,Allan Saul  ,Tim Spelman,Mark Stoove,Alisa Pedrana,Alexander Saeri,Emily Grundy,Liam Smith,Michael Toole,Chandini Raina McIntyre,Brendan S. Crabb,Margaret Hellard

Abstract
Background

Whilst evidence of use of face masks in reducing COVID-19 cases is increasing, the impact of mandatory use across a large population has been difficult to assess.  Introduction of mandatory mask use on July 22, 2020 during a resurgence of COVID-19 in Melbourne, Australia created a situation that facilitated an assessment of the impact of the policy on the epidemic growth rate as its introduction occurred in the absence of other changes to restrictions.

Conclusions

The mandatory mask use policy substantially increased public use of masks and was associated with a significant decline in new COVID-19 cases after introduction of the policy. This study strongly supports the use of masks for controlling epidemics in the broader community.

Methods and findings >>>

Exponential epidemic growth or decay rates in daily COVID-19 diagnoses were estimated using a non-weighted linear regression of the natural logarithm of the daily cases against time, using a linear spline model with one knot (lspline package in R v 3.6.3). The model’s two linear segments pivot around the hinge day, on which the mask policy began to take effect, 8 days following the introduction of the policy. We used two forms of data to assess change in mask usage: images of people wearing masks in public places obtained from a major media outlet and population-based survey data. Potential confounding factors (including daily COVID-19 tests, number of COVID-19 cases among population subsets affected differentially by the mask policy–e.g., healthcare workers) were examined for their impact on the results. Daily cases fitted an exponential growth in the first log-linear segment (k = +0.042, s.e. = 0.007), and fitted an exponential decay in the second (k = -0.023, s.e. = 0.017) log-linear segment. Over a range of reported serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 infection, these growth rates correspond to a 22–33% reduction in an effective reproduction ratio before and after mandatory mask use. Analysis of images of people in public spaces showed mask usage rose from approximately 43% to 97%. Analysis of survey data found that on the third day before policy introduction, 44% of participants reported “often” or “always” wearing a mask; on the fourth day after, 100% reported “always” doing so. No potentially confounding factors were associated with the observed change in growth rates.

See also graphs

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253510

We’ll have the scientists on this thread picking this apart.

[Rugster]

52 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Pretty much anything that comes out of Australia can be ignored.

I didn’t realise you were Australian cobber. 

[Michael W]

26 minutes ago, Geebee said:

The scientific study that I posted a link to shows simply that mask wearing substantially reduces covid exposure and transmission, end of.  That's a scientific fact according to this and other studies.   The greater the percentage of mask wearing in a population, the greater the reduction in Covid transmissions, illness, and deaths.

Of course we are all entitled to our own layman's views, and we can be armchair 'science researchers'' and put forward our own theories such as  "Maybe Australia with its lower cases numbers was different", or  "Pretty much anything that comes out of Australia can be ignored".  But that's like saying:  Gravity is different in Australia and can be ignored down there.  If this was our worldview we'd simply be in denial of the scientific facts.

Here's a link to the actual study in question.  Notice how various tried and tested research techniques are used to arrive at its conclusion, including the use of a process  for weeding out faulty data ('Possible confounders')

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253510

Extract:-

The introduction of a mandatory mask policy was associated with significantly reduced COVID-19 cases in a major metropolitan city.  [Study undertaken by] Nick Scott , Allan Saul  ,Tim Spelman, Mark Stoove, Alisa Pedrana,Alexander Saeri, Emily Grundy, Liam Smith, Michael Toole, Chandini Raina McIntyre,Brendan S. Crabb, Margaret Hellard

Abstract / Background

Whilst evidence of use of face masks in reducing COVID-19 cases is increasing, the impact of mandatory use across a large population has been difficult to assess.  

Introduction of mandatory mask use on July 22, 2020 during a resurgence of COVID-19 in Melbourne, Australia created a situation that facilitated an assessment of the impact of the policy on the epidemic growth rate as its introduction occurred in the absence of other changes to restrictions.

Conclusions

The mandatory mask use policy substantially increased public use of masks and was associated with a significant decline in new COVID-19 cases after introduction of the policy. This study strongly supports the use of masks for controlling epidemics in the broader community.

Methods and findings >>>

Exponential epidemic growth or decay rates in daily COVID-19 diagnoses were estimated using a non-weighted linear regression of the natural logarithm of the daily cases against time, using a linear spline model with one knot (lspline package in R v 3.6.3)... [etc]

We used two forms of data to assess change in mask usage: images of people wearing masks in public places obtained from a major media outlet and population-based survey data. Potential confounding factors (including daily COVID-19 tests, number of COVID-19 cases among population subsets affected differentially by the mask policy–e.g., healthcare workers) were examined for their impact on the results. Daily cases fitted an exponential growth in the first log-linear segment (k = +0.042, s.e. = 0.007), and fitted an exponential decay in the second (k = -0.023, s.e. = 0.017) log-linear segment.

Over a range of reported serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 infection, these growth rates correspond to a 22–33% reduction in an effective reproduction ratio before and after mandatory mask use.

Analysis of images of people in public spaces showed mask usage rose from approximately 43% to 97%. Analysis of survey data found that on the third day before policy introduction, 44% of participants reported “often” or “always” wearing a mask; on the fourth day after, 100% reported “always” doing so.

No potentially confounding factors were associated with the observed change in growth rates.

See also graphs

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253510

Thanks for this.

However, the findings of it don't bear out what I was saying - that mask wearing did not bring covid cases here under control. The study concludes that they did in Australia (which also had stricter baseline measures than we did) and indeed that cases actually declined, which is great. The only thing that has decreased cases here is lockdown and the schools being out. Mask wearing might well have reduced some transmissions but had nowhere near the effect it seems to have had in Australia, according to the study. There are many reasons for this, I'm sure. 

My only complaint with the study is that it doesn't really discuss the other measures in place and also acknowledges that it's not clear how effective mask wearing would've been in the absence of these (just after footnote 32). 

[Elixir]

Fantastic news - we can surely expect cases to decrease any day now!

Oh.

[The_Kincardine]

On 19/08/2021 at 20:27, Snafu said:

Looks like Scotrail are about to make cuts to services.

ScotRail accused of cuts to services as leak shows no plan to resume pre-lockdown timetable

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/scotrail-accused-cuts-services-leak-24797140

ScotRail has been accused of planning cuts to vital services by axing the pre-pandemic timetable.

A leaked document shows the train giant wants 300 fewer services than before covid struck.

In an angry statement, the Aslef, RMT, TSSA and Unite trade unions hit out at the cuts agenda:

“It is incredible in the year that the world comes to Scotland to debate the very future of our planet ScotRail is proposing cuts to the rail services in a transparent attempt to use the pandemic as cover for cuts.

“These plans would not only cull jobs, they would hit hardest on the most vulnerable people within society including elderly and disabled people. All the while diverting many passengers back onto the roads and increasing pollution, congestion and greenhouse gases.”

Scotrail, run by Dutch firm Abellio, has faced accusations of rip off train fares and poor service since taking on the franchise.

Public anger is likely to rise when the operator unveils a consultation today on a new “value for money” timetable for May 2022.

Funny that the claymore is being wielded  against the greenest of all forms of transport - a reduction of more than 100,000 train services per annum - on the same day that a new carriage on the Holyrood gravy train was  announced.

Scotland's single biggest problem is lack of a wee boy declaiming, "I can see the Emperor's boaby".

[welshbairn]

It would be counterintuitive to find that masks have zero effect on viral load transferred, and easy to prove if it was the case.

[alta-pete]

@Geebee are you Devi in disguise? 

[superbigal]

Daily Cases Update:  Day 16 in a row of case rises up a massive 15.45% to 288.5  I expect another huge rise of around 13% tomorrow as our 4th wave of infections continues.  Infectivity up 7 ticks to 8.7%.   Every single mainland council is increasing.  The jumps in Glasgow & Edinburgh are far higher than at any time in pandemic. We are almost guaranteed now to pass the previous 3rd wave peak of 425.1 on 3rd July. Currently if this 3,500 cases a day is stable we will peak again at 440 per 100K.   Twice as high as anywhere in mainland Europe.

Dumfries Central somehow is still increasing and now up to 1,742 !!!  

Still 370,000 under 40s who can't be arsed to get jagged. 

Figures for Jags  1st Vaccines improve   2,731 to 4018 ,  2nd vaccines still poor at  14,081 to 14,954.

Total Cases Scotland 7 days 12th August to 18th August were 13,661 now 15,772 up 15.45%, Positivity was 8.0% now 8.7%.  Cases per 100K were 249.9 now 288.5

Home Nations Daily update  :  UK Average 303.5 to 310.5 up 2.31%, England  310.4 to 314.7 up 1.06%, Wales 238.8 to 258.1 up 8.08%, Northern Ireland  525.2 to 541.8 up 3.35%

In Europe for travellers  Ireland 246.0 to 247.8 (Weekly change +2%),  France 252.9 to 235.7 (Weekly change -7%),  Greece  220.9 to 213.1 (Weekly change -1%), Switzerland 193.8 to 199.2 (weekly change +52%), Spain  171.3 to 164.4 (Weekly change -27%),  Portugal  158.7 to 158.3 (Weekly change -1%),   These are still the only main countries over 120 cases per 100K  Lower down the charts in the last week Germany has risen 61%,  Romania 63%, Serbia 68%, Albania 93%, Bosnia 106%

Scotland peaks in Wave 3 at 425.1 for 27th June to 3rd July, (UK was 229.9) . Cases that day were 23,222 and positivity 10.8%

Scotland previously peaked in wave 2 at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

Dumfries & Galloway  447.1 to 503.7   Dumfries Central  up again to 1,742 !! Covid capital of Europe

West Dunbartonshire 381.5 to 469.8  Up near another 25%

East Renfrewshire  331.0 to 405.0 Up another 25%+  Williamwood a contaminated heavily neighbourhood with 1,022 per 100K

Inverclyde    320.5 to 384.1 

Clackmannanshire    317.8 to 380.2

East Dunbartonshire  328.3 to 379.8 

South Lanarkshire 320.4 to 372.2

Renfrewshire  302.1 to 361.2 Up 65% in 3 days.

North Lanarkshire  316.0 to 358.5

Argyll & Bute    306.7 to 347.7

Glasgow City 286.2 to 347.1 up over 60% in 3 days

City Of Edinburgh   261.0 to 319.2  Up near 50% in 2 days.

North Ayrshire   310.6 to 318.1 

East Lothian   264.1 to 299.4 

West Lothian  247.5 to 280.7

Scottish  Borders 231.7 to 267.1

Fife  230.1 to 263.3

South Ayrshire 208.7 to 248.8

Stirling 207.3 to 241.3  Up over 65% in 2 days.

East Ayrshire  240.1 to 241.0

Falkirk  210.5 to 231.1

Midlothian    214.7 to 229.7 

Dundee City 181.4 to 209.6

Highlands  175.0 to 195.0

Perth & Kinross    170.5 to 175.8

Angus  161.5 to 172.7

Aberdeenshire  126.9 to 146.5

Aberdeen City 133.6 to 144.9

Western Isles    139.6 to 128.3

Moray   91.9 to 95.1

Shetland Islands   35.0 to 43.7 

Orkney Islands  44.6 to 40.2

 

[Wee Bully]

Face nappies?  Surely not.

[Elixir]

Masks continuing to work wonders:

Assuming 'Geebee' is a shan alias. Still citing Australia as a success story ffs.

[philpy]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

Pretty much anything that comes out of Australia can be ignored.

Take that back right fucking now.

[Elixir]

Australia, though. 

 

[Todd_is_God]

59 minutes ago, Damaged Radio said:

Huge leap in hospitals numbers. Deeply concerning. 

They've gone up eight?

[Left Back]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

They've gone up eight?

Since yesterday.  Down since last week again.

[Raidernation]

I have nothing to add to the debate, just popped in to say that apparently there was a professor Sheena Cruikshank on TV this week talking about Covid (obviously I didn’t see it here!)
I know the lassie, she was the wee sister of one of my closest school friends who died of cancer at 21: I have even baybysat her [emoji15][emoji23]