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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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1 hour ago, Left Back said:

The WHO have a course you can sit so you know when and how to use a facemask correctly 🤣

https://openwho.org/courses/COVID-19-mask-use

I like how you get two additional language options. Next to English, seemingly Macedonian and Albanian are the most useful languages. 

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Daily Cases Update:  Decent Day 8 of dropping cases. Down an excellent 2.51% to 334.4 which was bang on my upper estimate.  The real good thing to take from todays numbers (Which will translate to here in 2 days) of 2,636 cases. Is that this was only 8.1% positivity and still lower than reciprical day last week. This means cases should drop another 4-4.5% tomorrow and 2-2.5% the following day.  We are still testing as many people as ever so statistics are not being skewed.

England will have a higher cases per 100K measure than Scotland at 4pm when they update.  In 2 days I predict England about 355 and Scotland 310

I have posted some estimates of the countries in Europe I believe are over 150.   Spanish Islands are bound for the Amber list.

Total Cases Scotland 7 days from 5th July to 11th July  were  18.740 to 18,269 down 2.51%.  Positivity was 9.9%  now 9.8%.   Cases per 100k were  343.0 now 334.4

Home Nations Daily update  :  UK Average   311.7 to 319.5 up 2.50%, England 318.8 to 328.9 up 3.17%, Wales 144.5 to 147.0 up 1.73%, Northern Ireland  173.8 to 181.2 up 4.26%

New temporary source for Mainland Europe

Latest European figures today.   Netherlands 302.0, Spain 287.5, Portugal 193.4, Greece 150.8

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Scotland peaks in Wave 3 at 425.1 for 27th June to 3rd July, (UK was 229.9) . Cases that day were 23,222 and positivity 10.8%

Scotland previously peaked in wave 2 at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

 LEVEL 2 RED

Midlothian  653.4 to 655.4  Unwelcome halt to progress

Dundee City  584.7 to 569.9   8th day in a row of dropping.

East Lothian 494.0 to 453.8  LEVEL 1  Down excellent 8.14%

City Of Edinburgh 455.7 to 453.6  8th day in a row down. 

Inverclyde  452.4 to 443.4  LEVEL 1 

Angus  450.9 to 441.5 LEVEL 1

East Renfrewshire    430.2 to 408.2  Down decent 5.11%

Glasgow City 411.0 to 395.5

West Dunbartonshire   382.3 to 378.9  LEVEL 1 

North Lanarkshire   366.2 to 361.8  Rises 4 places with a fall in numbers, good sign.

West Lothian  370.3 to 360.5   LEVEL1  

Fife  374.5 to 354.7  LEVEL 1 Down decent 5.13%

Renfrewshire   369.6 to 352.3  

Falkirk  341.8 to 338.7  LEVEL 1

Aberdeen City  343.4 to 338.5 LEVEL1

Perth & Kinross    353.4 to 329.1  LEVEL 1 Down excellent 6.88%

East Dunbartonshire   340.6 to 318.5 Down decent 6.49%

South Lanarkshire    256.5 to 254.9

Stirling 246.3 to 243.1  

North Ayrshire  251.6 to 238.2

Scottish  Borders  239.8 to 222.5 LEVEL 1

Aberdeenshire   200.6 to 209.8 LEVEL 1

Highlands 216.7 to 209.5 LEVEL 1

East Ayrshire  217.2 to 209.0 

South Ayrshire  203.4 to 194.5  

Clackmannanshire  186.3 to 182.4

OFFICIAL  LEVEL 1 BLACK

Argyll & Bute  166.5 to 160.7

Orkney Islands   125.7 to 121.2

Dumfries & Galloway  115.5 to 117.6 

Moray 104.4 to 111.7

OFFICIAL LEVEL 0  Teuchters in Green

Shetland Islands  65.4 to 74.2

Western Isles   48.7 to 63.6

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12 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

11 deaths. What?

I suspect we're now nearing the peak (in terms of deaths and hospitalisations) of this wave. Cases and positivity look to be dropping - but deaths now will be based on the peak of cases from 10 days or so ago.

11 deaths is a lot by recent levels, but still a fraction of the numbers we recorded in January. Based on roughly 2500 cases a day for the past month there have been 75k positive tests over the last 28 days or so. So that was always likely to result in an increase in deaths.

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35 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:

2,636 new cases of COVID-19 reported (2529 yesterday)

35,849 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results

8.1% of these were positive (11.5% yesterday)

11 new reported death(s) of people who have tested positive (4 yesterday)

46 people were in intensive care yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 (up from 41)

515 people were in hospital yesterday with recently confirmed COVID-19 (up from 506)

3,948,446 people have received the first dose of the Covid vaccination and 2,914,904 have received their second dose

Hospital numbers seem to be levelling off a bit? Wasnt there an issue with tests yesterday as well? Perhaps there are extras added on?

6 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

I suspect we're now nearing the peak (in terms of deaths and hospitalisations) of this wave. Cases and positivity look to be dropping - but deaths now will be based on the peak of cases from 10 days or so ago.

11 deaths is a lot by recent levels, but still a fraction of the numbers we recorded in January. Based on roughly 2500 cases a day for the past month there have been 75k positive tests over the last 28 days or so. So that was always likely to result in an increase in deaths.

Yes, think we will still see some deaths and maybe the hospital numbers going up a bit but it looks like in terms of cases its peaked. 

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1 minute ago, Lyle Lanley said:

Wales to lift all restrictions by 7th of August except for mask wearing. 

IMO, masks are the worst restriction.

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Wales to lift all restrictions by 7th of August except for mask wearing. 


So roughly what it looks like we’ll be doing?
I’ve just realised that’s a Saturday. Jesus the pubs will be making up for the last year and a half.
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All the councils that were over 400 cases per 100K 1 week ago at the peak of the 3rd Wave and progress.  All bar Midlothian of the top 8 well above Scottish average fall.

Dundee City  914.1 to 569.9  Down 37.65%

Midlothian   761.4 to 655.4  Down 13.92%

East Lothian   607.9 to 453.8  LEVEL 1  Down 25.35%

City Of Edinburgh  592.5 to 453.6 Down 23.44%  

Perth & Kinross   550.8 to 329.1  LEVEL 1  Down 40.25%

West Dunbartonshire  530.8 to 378.9  LEVEL 1 Down 28.62%

Renfrewshire 523.2 to 352.3  Down 32.66%

East Dunbartonshire  511.8 to 318.5 Down 37.77%

Angus    498.3 to 441.5  LEVEL 1  Down 11.40%

Glasgow City  493.0 to 395.5  Down 19.98%

Fife  479.2 to 354.7  LEVEL 1  Down 25.99%

East Renfrewshire   475.2 to 408.2  Down 14.10%

Inverclyde  456.3 to 443.4  LEVEL 1  Down 2.83%

Aberdeen City  447.8 to 338.5  LEVEL1  Down 24.41%

East Ayrshire  430.3 to 209.0  Down 51.43%

 

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23 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

IMO, masks are the worst restriction.

That is absolutely mental. Masks are a pain in the arse, and I really feel for people who are wearing them for large periods of the day, but worse than social distancing (which stops almost anything normal happening) is bonkers.

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23 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

IMO, masks are the worst restriction.

They're not ideal, and I want rid of them ASAP, but they're clearly not as bad as social distancing, given that they don't really directly prevent you from going about your normal daily life.

 

19 minutes ago, virginton said:

Senga (93) fell down the stairs in the house  - tested positive for and so 'tragically died of' Covid. 

I think I posted this a wee while ago, but it bears repeating. It's a simple fact that if more people in the population have covid, then more of the people who die will have covid. Some of them will be affected by the disease (genuine covid deaths) and it will ultimately have contributed to their death, but for many others it will have had no bearing on their death (statistical covid deaths).

In each of the previous periods of high infection rates, the number of people at serious risk of death from covid was much higher than it is now, and therefore it makes sense that the vast majority of deaths recorded under this definition would have been genuine covid deaths, but with the impact of the vaccines this third wave has been the first one where it is entirely possible that we have more (or at least as many) of what I've called statistical covid deaths.

Even if we had invented a vaccine which was literally 100% effective in preventing deaths, we would still have people who were included in the covid deaths tally. The measure is surely now completely broken.

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42 minutes ago, Snafu said:

Worse being hospitals some whom are code black and struggling. Adding to the increasing problem in the healthcare system in this country. Hospitals whom are now having to cancel scheduled operations and have increasing waiting lists etc which could take years to catch up if they ever. This is unacceptable and someone needs to take responsibility.

The biggest reason for all the restrictions was to 'protect the NHS' we must be close to the point where the backlog of operations is now more of a threat to the NHS than the virus itself?

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