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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


ICTChris

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That patter went out with th Arks last voyage.
Think what you want, as I couldn't give a flying fcuk what you think. 
For reference, your responding to the resident expert who declared the pandemic over last summer, doesn't actually believe Covid is a thing and is also a self confessed climate change denier.
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From reading about it it seems that the Indian variant is likely to be more transmissible but that the level of community transmission is a lot lower than was seen in Kent last winter. 
All available vaccines seem to be highly effective against the variant. Initial evidence from Bolton and Blackburn is that the vast majority of people who are being affected are unvaccinated.  The vaccines can crush the curve and it seems like that’s what they are trying to do. I’m not sure if similar work is being done in Glasgow, you’d hope it is.
Another piece of good news is that the latest data on the AstraZeneca vaccine is that its efficacy against symptomatic illness is around 95%, higher than previously thought and higher than Pfizer.
 
It's worrying that evidence of non vaccination only seems to come to the surface in instances like this. Seems overall in Bolton and Blackburn uptake was about 80% but in certain neighbourhood's it was down below 50%. There is the obvious elephant in the room in those discussions but it's absolutely certain that any flare up will rip through neighberhoods with such low protection levels. The upside is they should be containable and remain isolated pockets.
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This is verging towards what would previously be considered a bit tin foil hat, but im going with it anyway.

Despite the obvious cigaring of the Indian Variant, which should place us firmly in "as you were" territory, scotgov will start peddling some pish about how this particular occassion represents a "lucky escape" or a "close one" that we got away with and adjust the roadmap for longer infringement into our lives. Devi etc will try to attach this variant and yet unknown others like it (or bigger badder ones )to public behaviour and social activity.

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16 minutes ago, Paco said:

It’s probably been covered but SAGE were claiming yesterday the Indian variant could be 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant, which they once claimed was 70% more transmissible than the variant we had over autumn. It’d be absolutely fucking hilarious if such tripe didn’t have such an impact on our lives. The Indian variant does look fairly likely to become the dominant one here, but that is no real problem - the vaccines smoke it, unequivocally. There is no problem, an outside chance of a slightly bigger than expected bump in hospital numbers with the relaxation measures but that’s about it.

It’s little more than a bump in the road. And if it does cause any local lockdowns, arguably Glasgow being denied Level 2 has already done with areas like Bolton and Blackburn potentially following, it is 100% the fault of Boris Johnson and his pointless red list charade.

The BBC talking about the meeting discussing this.

And if the variant was 40-50% more transmissible than the current dominant type, they warned proceeding to step three of England's roadmap on Monday would likely "lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)"

how on earth is anyone expecting hospitalisations to hit anything like previous peaks when the majority of the vulnerable…?

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There must be huge amounts of people aged between 50-65 who were vaccinated for the 1st time between 6 & 10 weeks ago.

They are now (Myself) included to receive the 2nd dose at 8 weeks.

Health Service needs to be very busy sorting those numbers out.

On the flip side as they are not using AZ for under 40s there should be shitloads available to ramp up these 2nd doses.

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Someone with more knowledge than me can tell me if this right but if viruses become transmissible, do they not become less deadly? I don’t hear anyone mentioning this.

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1 minute ago, stuart87 said:

Someone with more knowledge than me can tell me if this right but if viruses become transmissible, do they not become less deadly? I don’t hear anyone mentioning this.

There's no hard and fast rule.

Technically, in a vaccine free world, if it becomes more transmissible but lethality remains the same, you will have more deaths because more people catch it and therefore proportionally more die from it. 

This isn't a vaccine free world though. 

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Just now, stuart87 said:

Someone with more knowledge than me can tell me if this right but if viruses become transmissible, do they not become less deadly? I don’t hear anyone mentioning this.

I don't think as a rule of thumb.

A virus can (and does) mutate to become more transmissible, it also can mutate to not be as deadly to the host but the two are not mutually exclusive to one another.

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1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:
16 hours ago, deegee said:

It is clear the government will bend their own rules to fill churches a month ago but can’t bear to see football, rugby, nightclubs etc open in any form without attempting to control by fear.

Didn't religious groups win a court case to force churches to open earlier than planned ?

Yes that's right, although they were due to reopen the following day anyway. It was more about the principle of the government having power to close places of worship. 

Churches certainly aren't permitted to be full currently, 2 metre distancing applies which severely restricts numbers. 

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1 hour ago, Michael W said:

Agreed, particularly this bit:

“I understand the significance of this day for Rangers fans but I am extremely disappointed that supporters have once again ignored Covid regulations and chosen to gather in large numbers in Glasgow.

“The rules are the same for everyone and the evidence is clear – when large numbers of people gather in close proximity, there is an increased risk of transmission.

Clearly this doesn't apply when said mass gathering is for a cause that Yousaf agrees with. It's a smart virus after all - only infects the gatherings you don't like. Ignoring of course the numerous examples of such gatherings over the last year for numerous reasons, none of which resulted in a case spike. 

By all means condemn the behaviour last night that lead to numerous arrests and investigations being launched as these were out of order and worthy of condemnation. As for the gathering itself, the "endangering lives" line is birthday caird pish doing nothing but playing to the galleries of Lovejoys. Lives were equally as endangered at the Palestine marches and the Deportation protest, not least considering the latter took place in the area with Scotland's worst rates of coronavirus infection. However this passed without comment from Yousaf. 

The inconsistency is rage-inducing, but not unexpected. More worrying is that the disorder on display will undoubtedly be used to bash all football fans with. 

Hes a moron. Somebody should call him out, not just on his hypocrisy but also the fact that studies have shown outdoor transmission accounts for less that 1% of covid cases

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4 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

Hes a moron. Somebody should call him out, not just on his hypocrisy but also the fact that studies have shown outdoor transmission accounts for less that 1% of covid cases

Worst justice minister ever. That said the best thing would have been for the scottish government to open up ibrokes to 3/4 capacity and let them party there. 

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15 minutes ago, Chester Desmond said:

Yes that's right, although they were due to reopen the following day anyway. It was more about the principle of the government having power to close places of worship. 

Churches certainly aren't permitted to be full currently, 2 metre distancing applies which severely restricts numbers. 

Are they actually having to turn people away because of this or is it a pointless “restriction”?  

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Here we go again, we're on the road again
Prof Christine Tait-Burkard was also on saying she reckons minimum 2 or 3 weeks for Glasgow.

Moray on the downward so maybe not for them.
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I am not disputing the JCVI's expertise (the press conference with them where they completely tore apart the journalists was brilliant) but I wonder if, in hindsight, there should have been more focus vaccinating certain demographics and population centres.

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I am not disputing the JCVI's expertise (the press conference with them where they completely tore apart the journalists was brilliant) but I wonder if, in hindsight, there should have been more focus vaccinating certain demographics and population centres.
You would hope that they focus on vaccinations in Glasgow, shit for other areas if its at their expense but Glasgow is the largest population centre in Scotland and consistently near the top of the table for case rates.

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1 minute ago, Aladdin said:

You would hope that they focus on vaccinations in Glasgow, shit for other areas if its at their expense but Glasgow is the largest population centre in Scotland and consistently near the top of the table for case rates.
 

There are additional vaccination centres being set up and appointments allocated to everyone over the age of 18 in the worst impacted post codes.

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There are additional vaccination centres being set up and appointments allocated to everyone over the age of 18 in the worst impacted post codes.
I'm glad that that they are recognising vaccinations should help sort this, but its massively disappointing that Glasgow is, yet again, being left with restrictions worse than literally everywhere else for an indefinite period of time.
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Hes a moron. Somebody should call him out, not just on his hypocrisy but also the fact that studies have shown outdoor transmission accounts for less that 1% of covid cases

This 1% figure is useful in terms of showing that outdoor transmission is less likely than indoor transmission, but it was computed at a time when outdoor gatherings were also banned. It's therefore not really a figure that can be applied in any meaningful way to large outdoor gatherings like that one.
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