Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ICTChris]

 

[Dev]

48 minutes ago, PWL said:

Here's exact quote by Dr Smith from BBC website. Doesn't seem to unreasonable to me.  Key point remains getting jags in arms so that infection rates, while still important, don't have the devastating impact of Jan. 

.... so is it a new variant then?

Surely if it has mutated so it is "now somewhere between 30% and 70% more transmissable" it would be a new variant?

Is Dr Smith saying that it is not a new variant then?

If it is not a new variant then the vaccines should have no current problem knocking it out of the park? IF that's correct then what's the song and dance about given that so many most vulnerable have had the first jab or will have had it before mid April? Vaccinations are soon to rocket as the new supplies are arriving - even with lots of second jabs going on at the same time.

[Dev]

45 minutes ago, Pato said:

is he wrang

 

Before the vaccines showed up what else was there? 

[Jan Vojáček]

4 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Only if you c***s in East Dunbartonshire get your numbers down. The West won't be accepting any ruffians. 

I'll annexe Kirkintilloch, Bishopbriggs and Lenzie. See if that has an impact. Westerton has a care home that's had a few outbreaks too. Might suggest that it's handed over to Glasgow.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I was speaking to a couple at the weekend who are both teachers , one in Perth and Kinross and the other in Angus
Perth and Kinross school are doing S1 , S2 and S3 only on a Tuesday and Thursday with S4, S5 and S6 on a Monday, Wednesday and Friday
The confusing thing for parents will be they don't have the space to have all the S1 , S2 and S3 children in school at the same time so its 2 of the 3 groups on a rolling rota so week 1 is S1 and S2 Tuesday, S1 and S3 Thursday, then the next week starts S2 and S3 etc. Parents and kids will lose track of which day they are meant to be in but with class sizes very limited and 10% of the staff still shielding then there  is no other option.
The school in Angus is a new build but has very narrow corridors which is their main concern , already over capacity and possibly following a similar patern
Both schools need the distancing requirement to be reduced to give more class time.
 
 

That's the real issue - it's impossible to get S1 to S3 any longer because most modern schools just aren't big enough.

You can blame PPI for that - something that most political parties supported.

[Left Back]

15 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

A lot going on in that article.

A few lines later...

 

elimination and eradication have very specific definitions in the terms of viruses.

WHO defines elimination as having no domestic transmission for 3 years.  eradication is basically elimination on a global scale.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

27 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

Looking forward to a capacity crowd at the Rock in the April sunshine as a result of your actions.

An avalanche of sweetie paper rustling will be the result. 

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

37 minutes ago, virginton said:

Also on Gregor Smith's 'contribution', if the big scary new virus variant was up to 70% more transmissible than the one last year, then the lighter lockdown measures since December 26 could simply not have reduced cases in the same way as the tighter lockdown from the spring of 2020. But it has, so it is clearly not that much more transmissible. 

Doing less lockdown and getting similar results means that the big scary mutant chat was utter bollocks all along and can be safely filed in the bin where it belongs. 

Or the vaccine reduces transmission, which it does.

[Jan Vojáček]

5 minutes ago, Left Back said:

elimination and eradication have very specific definitions in the terms of viruses.

WHO defines elimination as having no domestic transmission for 3 years.  eradication is basically elimination on a global scale.

So the FM wants to see a situation where there are no cases of community transmission for three years, in a world where the CMO does not believe the virus can be eradicated?

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

An avalanche of sweetie paper rustling will be the result. 

Rustling so loud it could be heard from Holm Park.

[Bairnardo]

Rustling so loud it could be heard from Holm Park.

They just keep saying these words, that are actually utterly meaningless without clarifying what it is they want and how they will achieve it, and unachievable anyway with an open border to differing restrictions.

Zero that doesnt mean zero, minimise, eradicate, eliminate, drive it down bla bla bla. Keeping saying these words, these either being corrected by those who know, or having to offer up further clarity that it doesnt actually mean what everyone assumes it means when you said it really doesnt help...... well anything about this recovery.

Said before, but with the caveat that a drastic uptick in admissions would be a concern, the news and updates now should be filled with vaccine encouragement/info, and plans for recovery and normality.

[Todd_is_God]

33 minutes ago, stuart87 said:

Covid in Scotland: Sturgeon objective 'to eliminate' virus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56347695

What does get case numbers as low as possible mean with actual numbers?
What does this mean if there are very few people in hospital?

Would be great if anyone can help with these questions.

This "fingers in the ears approach" to the noises coming from the UK Gov because they want to appear to care more needs to stop.

England have no intention of going down this route, so why are the SG so obsessed with pretending they can achieve it whilst the UK border is open, and England is quite happy living with it?

An utterly bizarre fantasy.

[vikingTON]

5 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

Or the vaccine reduces transmission, which it does.

Cases were falling long before vaccine rollout could have dampened community-wide transmission. 

[Left Back]

11 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

So the FM wants to see a situation where there are no cases of community transmission for three years, in a world where the CMO does not believe the virus can be eradicated?

Rustling so loud it could be heard from Holm Park.

FM is either bandying about words she doesn't know the meaning of, or is deliberately misusing them.

If she said zero community transmission, that is one thing and is the first step to elimination but official elimination ,even if it could be achieved is years away.

Only 2 diseases have ever been eradicated.  Eradication takes years/decades and requires a global effort.  I'd suspect we're a long way from attempting that so the CMO is likely correct.

 

ETA.  The smallpox eradication programmes started in 1959, the last community transmission happened in 1975 and the disease was declared eradicated in 1980.  Even if we could reduce those timeframes for covid are we likely to reduce them dramatically?

Edited March 10, 2021 by Left Back

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, PWL said:

Here's exact quote by Dr Smith from BBC website. Doesn't seem to unreasonable to me.  Key point remains getting jags in arms so that infection rates, while still important, don't have the devastating impact of Jan. 

The "very different situation" is that we have unbelievably effective vaccines.

The virus itself is not "a completely different virus" and it behaves in pretty much the same way.

This talking down like talking to children approach grew tiresome 9 months ago.

Edited March 10, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Left Back said:

FM is either bandying about words she doesn't know the meaning of, or is deliberately misusing them.

If she said zero community transmission, that is one thing and is the first step to elimination but official elimination ,even if it could be achieved is years away.

Only 2 diseases have ever been eradicated.  Eradication takes years/decades and requires a global effort.  I'd suspect we're a long way from attempting that so the CMO is likely correct.

She's been trying to emulate her idol Jacinda Ardern for months, but has failed to notice that JA herself has planned to abandon #ZeroCovid once enough of her country is vaccinated.

Or she thinks people are too stupid to find out information from sources other than the SG daily briefings, and therefore won't have noticed.

[TheScarf]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

This "fingers in the ears approach" to the noises coming from the UK Gov because they want to appear to care more needs to stop.

England have no intention of going down this route, so why are the SG so obsessed with pretending they can achieve it whilst the UK border is open, and England is quite happy living with it?

An utterly bizarre fantasy.

Yep, she can pine for the 'NZ route' all she likes, and that's all well and good until you remember NZ doesn't share any land borders with another country.  Scotland does, and it's an open border, to a country that will not be chasing the 'NZ route'.

[superbigal]

Maybe she has mixed up the zero arse feeling policies with this zero covid thing.
Wonder what big Ecks opinion [emoji848] is ?

[TheScarf]

1 minute ago, Tynierose said:

I really think she needs to get herself some new advisors that live in the real world.

The more thinks normalise elsewhere, hospital admissions go down and vaccines work the more foolish she looks.

A very strange approach she now seems set upon.

She could do with getting an epidemiologist like the Nigels have.  That would be a start.  A dentist and a medical researcher isn't really cutting it for me.

[The Moonster]

31 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

An avalanche of sweetie paper rustling will be the result. 

We are far more in with the young crowd these days. 

[Left Back]

5 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

She could do with getting an epidemiologist like the Nigels have.  That would be a start.  A dentist and a medical researcher isn't really cutting it for me.

Thought Gregor smith was a GP?