Bairnardo Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Nicola Sturgeon doing her best Gordon Elliot impression this summer. Casually sat astride the corpse of Scottish hospitality, whilst telling us its welfare is at the heart of everything she does..... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, charger29 said: That's France giving Astrazeneca to over 65s now. Germany and Belgium are expected to u-turn some point soon as well. Edit: only the 65-74 age group has been added. I fear that the damage here has ready been done. People have been told or given the impression the vaccine is no good and now they're being told the opposite when respective governments have been embrassed and are having to explain to their electorates why they are behind in vaccinating. Minds will have been made up and it is not easy to win them back round, meanwhile the conspiracy wackos will be having a field day. I do hope I'm wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 8 hours ago, craigkillie said: It's also not clear what the actual restrictions associated with the new levels are. It could easily be that the new levels bear little resemblance to the previous ones - for example perhaps the new "Level 2" will be closer to the old "Level 1". The devil will be in the detail. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 We’re approaching two major changes in how we deal with data in this pandemic. The first one is easy - case rates won’t matter much. Worth keeping an eye on for the rest of the year, mostly for sequencing reasons, but not too important. Thus far the vast majority (~95%) of oldies/vulnerable have taken the vaccine. Of those, it’ll halt transmission in most cases. And if they do get the virus, most will hardly notice because the vaccines will do their thing. Tiny numbers will get ill but it won’t be many, and it certainly won’t all be at once in the style of previous ‘waves’. Therefore, case numbers don’t matter much. Basing a tiers system solely around it come late April with ~60% of the population vaccinated would be mental. The whole chain of more cases = more NHS pressure = more death is being rapidly broken down and how we handle the data must reflect that. We could conceivably see rates of 300-400 per 100k in Glasgow in May with hospital admissions in the single figures. The second thing is separating those who are ill from Covid, and those who test positive for Covid and are ill. I know this sounds like an anti-lockdown crank and it will happen at the moment, someone goes in with a stroke, tests positive and dies - therefore Covid death. For simplicity’s sake I’ve been fine with this up until now (and will be until April). But moving forward it’d be very easy to test every hospital patient for Covid, probably still advisable short-term, and fool ourselves into thinking Covid is still a huge problem when it isn’t. I’m not sure how that can be more nuanced at the population level but we’re going to need to find a way, or it’ll become a self-fulfilling prophecy and we’ll see a problem with our vaccines where one doesn’t exist. The previous tiers system wasn’t based solely on case rates and I don’t expect this one will be either. I’d hope into May we become comfortable with higher cases if/when it becomes clear the NHS isn’t suffering. The main devil is in the detail of what the tiers actually look like, and unfortunately we still don’t know so it’s still hard to take a position right now. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Can we get a binding commitment on that? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 The next review had better contain something far more positive. Continuation of this doom-laden pish when we have numerous successful vaccines throwing the virus about like a used towel simply won't wash. I've been a fairly consistent SNP voter since 2007ish but I'm absolutely veering towards drawing a giant cock and balls on the ballot paper this time round. Yes I get the whole "independence is bigger than this" argument, but if the SG are doing a Chris Iwelumo with a return to normality in sight, they can get to absolute f**k. Imagine completely fucking an election, and ultimately the lifelong goal of Scottish independence for your party because you listened to a fucking dentist. 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jan Vojáček Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 I've just trundled through the reaction to the levels story on Twitter, and all but one response that I could see was slamming it. I can't help but wonder if the SNP are just testing the waters before making a decision (in true UKGov style). If the number of people in hospital is low, and if England is back to some sort of normality then it would be an abysmal look to have Scotland remaining in close to a full lockdown. Crowds at the Euros in England and up here folk not being allowed to leave their local authority would be damning. FWIW I don't think they'll go with it. It's hugely unpopular and is based on pre-Vaccine advice. That will be the line they use to change it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budmiester1 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 Something has been bugging me since last Tuesday in regards to the new “levels “ The SG has had about 6 weeks before the roadmap announcement to come up with what the levels contain yet apparently they are still working on them? Surely they could have given a basic outline of what they would be last week? Or are they playing a long game ,hoping that as things improve they can say that the levels are much more relaxed than before and thereby gaining the kudos for being “responsible “. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charger29 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 I fear that the damage here has ready been done. People have been told or given the impression the vaccine is no good and now they're being told the opposite when respective governments have been embrassed and are having to explain to their electorates why they are behind in vaccinating. Minds will have been made up and it is not easy to win them back round, meanwhile the conspiracy wackos will be having a field day. I do hope I'm wrong. It does seem like it. Even the side effects seem to be reported a lot more in France. Think there was a big story about hospital staff having to take time off due to post astrazeneca jag headaches. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian1 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 (edited) 5 minutes ago, budmiester1 said: Something has been bugging me since last Tuesday in regards to the new “levels “ The SG has had about 6 weeks before the roadmap announcement to come up with what the levels contain yet apparently they are still working on them? Surely they could have given a basic outline of what they would be last week? Or are they playing a long game ,hoping that as things improve they can say that the levels are much more relaxed than before and thereby gaining the kudos for being “responsible “. Thats wha i was thinking too - they have left it open to relax restrictions under the levels. A fair proportion of Scotland is already below 50/100k and many more local authorities likely to reach that mark soon. If things continue to improve and all over 50's and many over 40's are vaccinated by mid-April then I see no reason for the vast majority of Scotland not to be below 50/100k (I suspect we might even be there by the end of the month....something many on here laughed at a few weeks ago) Edited March 2, 2021 by Caledonian1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 If the rates are not at the L0 to L2 range by the end of April in all LA areas on that table released last week then it suggests the much lauded "cigars" will have been more like a silk cut ! There is zero evidence to suggest that will be the case so it looks very achievable / proportionate to me. No idea why the heads gone at a regurgitation of something by the BBC that had been in the public domain for days beforehand. It's almost like the BBC are in a full anti SNP election footing ! -5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elric Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 One for Tynierose to possibly answer. We have been told that the current vaccines can be adapted to counter any new variants. When a vaccine is adapted like that does it go straight into production after a short period of testing or does it have to go through a prolonged period like the initial vaccine and get full BMA approval? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 24 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: Imagine completely fucking an election, and ultimately the lifelong goal of Scottish independence for your party because you listened to a fucking dentist. This sentence is the crux for me. And ultimately what it's boiling down to at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: If the rates are not at the L0 to L2 range by the end of April in all LA areas on that table released last week then it suggests the much lauded "cigars" will have been more like a silk cut ! Yes, it'll definitely be under 50 cases/100,000 people weekly while large sections of the adult population and all children haven't received a first dose of a vaccine and asymptomatic testing is being massively scaled up for schools and in the community. Not that your mewling addresses the fundamental point that 'new cases' should play absolutely zero role in the reduction of restrictions seeing as the vulnerable groups are getting jabbed right now. A ten year old child having the sniffles is not grounds for emergency public health restrictions on everyday life. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: If the rates are not at the L0 to L2 range by the end of April in all LA areas on that table released last week then it suggests the much lauded "cigars" will have been more like a silk cut ! There is zero evidence to suggest that will be the case so it looks very achievable / proportionate to me. No idea why the heads gone at a regurgitation of something by the BBC that had been in the public domain for days beforehand. It's almost like the BBC are in a full anti SNP election footing ! -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 9 hours ago, Thereisalight.. said: How can the SG expect people to take tougher tier levels seriously? We have vaccines which are doing their job (which we didnt have last summer), previous sticklers for the rules are now seeing what a shambles it is that numbers are low yet they still legally cant meet up outdoors with two pals to go for a walk. Its like NS is putting her fingers in her ears and blocking out the mood music. Still, when you can win an election regardless of what you do, why bother appeasing the proletariat Make no mistake, polling trends are already pointing towards that, coupled with the Salmond saga, if they carry on handling the pandemic 'recovery' this way, then like in 2016 they won't be getting the majority they need to force the unionist argument of needing one to hold a referendum. Mind you, that will probably satisfy the 'hold this Westminster Government to account' fluffers like Blackford who love the gravy train. 1 hour ago, Have some faith in Magic said: This is in the times today, talking about vaccine effect (not written by Jason Leitch). "For most scientists, the endgame of coronavirus is not eradication but accommodation. The point will come when it is still with us every winter but we barely notice it; it spreads but our acquired immunity means that it does not devastate. This data shows that that day — a day when we no longer talk about R numbers and Pillar 2 testing — is on its way". This has always been the end goal in a fucking nutshell, and which the vaccines now make so much easier. How many scientists can see this yet some still can't, while normal logical members of the public can, brings into question the judgement and motives of those scientists who can't. Scientific debate and disagreement is healthy, but not when the actual answer is now obvious and people's lives are at stake as a result. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 If the rates are not at the L0 to L2 range by the end of April in all LA areas on that table released last week then it suggests the much lauded "cigars" will have been more like a silk cut ! There is zero evidence to suggest that will be the case so it looks very achievable / proportionate to me. No idea why the heads gone at a regurgitation of something by the BBC that had been in the public domain for days beforehand. It's almost like the BBC are in a full anti SNP election footing !Are you pre emptively laying the ground work to criticise the greatest medical achievement of modern times, rather than accept some (completely valid, form guide based) criticism of scotgov? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 1 minute ago, super_carson said: Don't forget the media darling Devi. Who, to be fair, is a doctor. Of philosophy. They'll roll out the fucking doctor of Thuganomics for his opinion next - 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest_Man#1 Posted March 2, 2021 Share Posted March 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: If the rates are not at the L0 to L2 range by the end of April in all LA areas on that table released last week then it suggests the much lauded "cigars" will have been more like a silk cut ! There is zero evidence to suggest that will be the case so it looks very achievable / proportionate to me. No idea why the heads gone at a regurgitation of something by the BBC that had been in the public domain for days beforehand. It's almost like the BBC are in a full anti SNP election footing ! Can’t tell if you are being dense or actively ignoring the point. When we get to the point of easing restrictions, cases will undoubtedly rocket up amongst the younger unvaccinated population, despite it likely having next to no impact on hospital and death rates, so if we base anything on case numbers then it’s going to be farcical. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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