Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Donathan]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Of course (And those weren't my words). But given JCVI Groups 4 & 6 cover clinically extremely vulnerable and clinically vulnerable people, by protecting them we will quite clearly greatly reduce the number of deaths. This is a both a good thing, and a fairly obvious point..

Tremendous mewling. Not sure what relevance it has to my post though.

I don't understand this apparent fear that the NHS could still be overwhelmed after the top 9 groups have been vaccinated.

 

When you take out over 50's and any under 50's who are either clinically vulnerable or extremely vulnerable, I could be wrong but I'd imagine the percentage of cases that need to be hospitalised out of the remaining population is such that there is no danger of the NHS becoming overwhelmed even if cases are allowed to start spreading exponentially again.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I don't understand this apparent fear that the NHS could still be overwhelmed after the top 9 groups have been vaccinated.

 

When you take out over 50's and any under 50's who are either clinically vulnerable or extremely vulnerable, I could be wrong but I'd imagine the percentage of cases that need to be hospitalised out of the remaining population is such that there is no danger of the NHS becoming overwhelmed even if cases are allowed to start spreading exponentially again.

^^^ Covid Denier

[101]

7 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I don't understand this apparent fear that the NHS could still be overwhelmed after the top 9 groups have been vaccinated.

 

When you take out over 50's and any under 50's who are either clinically vulnerable or extremely vulnerable, I could be wrong but I'd imagine the percentage of cases that need to be hospitalised out of the remaining population is such that there is no danger of the NHS becoming overwhelmed even if cases are allowed to start spreading exponentially again.

I don't think it's a fear of the overwhelming it's the time it takes to discharge people from hospital and then if they have health issues caused by Covid following their discharge you are putting more pressure on the NHS, of course it's no reason to have a lockdown as hospitals can deal with emergencies and plan their procedures but pressure on the NHS is more than admissions and it's more than Covid.

[Donathan]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

^^^ Covid Denier

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-over-80s-need-hospitalisation/

 

This paper (Albeit it's by the widely discredited Imperial modellers) suggests a tiny 1% of under 30's need hospital treatment. Even within that 1%, you'd expect the more serious cases amongst younger people to come from those who have an underlying health condition and thus will be included in the groups 1-9.

 

Given that the approved vaccines are ridiculously highly effective at preventing serious illness and death, and the incredibly high uptake, I expect hospitalisations to plummet once group 9 is done. I also happen to think based on the supply tables that you've posted on here previously, groups 1-9 will actually be completed several weeks ahead of the dates that both the SG and UKG are targeting.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

I think come mid March/whenever tier criteria and what's allowed in each tier is announced, people are going to be pleasantly surprised.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Donathan said:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-over-80s-need-hospitalisation/

 

This paper (Albeit it's by the widely discredited Imperial modellers) suggests a tiny 1% of under 30's need hospital treatment. Even within that 1%, you'd expect the more serious cases amongst younger people to come from those who have an underlying health condition and thus will be included in the groups 1-9.

 

Given that the approved vaccines are ridiculously highly effective at preventing serious illness and death, and the incredibly high uptake, I expect hospitalisations to plummet once group 9 is done. I also happen to think based on the supply tables that you've posted on here previously, groups 1-9 will actually be completed several weeks ahead of the dates that both the SG and UKG are targeting.

Just to be clear, I wasn't actually calling you a Covid Denier!

[Donathan]

Just to be clear, I wasn't actually calling you a Covid Denier!

I know[emoji8]

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

I think come mid March/whenever tier criteria and what's allowed in each tier is announced, people are going to be pleasantly surprised.

I think referring to it "Level 3" was a mistake. I really hope they will look nothing at all like the "Level 3" we know.

[Wee Bully]

Tremendous mewling. Not sure what relevance it has to my post though.

Oh, the irony

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

I think referring to it "Level 3" was a mistake. I really hope they will look nothing at all like the "Level 3" we know.

I don't think it will.

 

 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

A friend of mine just completed 21 days of quarantine getting into China. Got an anal swab done for final test.

Next step is getting the vaccine creampied into you.

[HibsFan]

5 hours ago, Legend55 said:

As for same IP address THAT IS A BLATANT LIE YOUABSOLUTE LOSER 

How dare you pollute this thread with cheap talk about IP addresses when there are dozen of 20 year olds dying every year from this awful pandemic. Have you no shame?

[Donathan]

3 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I think referring to it "Level 3" was a mistake. I really hope they will look nothing at all like the "Level 3" we know.

I have no skin in the race as I live down South these days but given that, for all the different tone in messaging, the early stages in the roadmap are relatively aligned to the English plan, we could see something like:

 

Level 3 (From 26th April): 6 from 2 households outdoors, including in private gardens and outdoor hospitality venues. Non-essential retail, hairdressers and gyms open. Still no indoor household mixing. Can travel to other council areas.

Level 2 (From 17th May): 6 from 2 households indoors. 15 from 5 households outdoors. Indoor hospitality opens, as do cinemas. No overseas travel however you can travel to other parts of the UK.

Level 1 (From 7th June): 8 from 3 households indoors, no limit on outdoor gatherings. All businesses can reopen as long as 2m physical distancing can be enforced.

Level 0 (From 28th June): All legal restrictions on social contact lifted but still face coverings on public transport and in shops, mandatory self-isolation if you test positive or are contact-traced, etc

 

Although they plan to return to the tiers I think they will largely move Scotland down through the tiers in unison but will impose tier 4 local lockdown on individual council areas to stamp out sudden outbreaks, which would be what would happen to Falkirk just now if we weren't in a national lockdown anyway. 

 

[Louis Litt]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

By the looks of this, those without co-morbidities are extremely unlikely to die from Covid.

This should give even more confidence that vaccinating JCVI groups 1-9 should all but eliminate Covid deaths in Scotland, and lead to restrictions being eased in a timely manner.

This is utter nonsense (even if the numbers are factually correct, I don't know).

The majority of covid deaths are in those aged 70 plus and you'd be searching a long time to find someone in that age bracket (younger, even) whose death certificate would have nothing other than covid on it. Just because Agnes had high blood pressure throughout her adult life doesn't mean she didn't actually die from coronavirus.

[djchapsticks]

35 minutes ago, Donathan said:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196573/covid-19-one-five-over-80s-need-hospitalisation/

 

This paper (Albeit it's by the widely discredited Imperial modellers) suggests a tiny 1% of under 30's need hospital treatment. Even within that 1%, you'd expect the more serious cases amongst younger people to come from those who have an underlying health condition and thus will be included in the groups 1-9.

 

Given that the approved vaccines are ridiculously highly effective at preventing serious illness and death, and the incredibly high uptake, I expect hospitalisations to plummet once group 9 is done. I also happen to think based on the supply tables that you've posted on here previously, groups 1-9 will actually be completed several weeks ahead of the dates that both the SG and UKG are targeting.

I'm hugely surprised that the hospital rate of under 30s was anything approaching 1%. I'd have thought it would have been even a fraction of that again. 

 

[resk]

2 minutes ago, Louis Litt said:

This is utter nonsense (even if the numbers are factually correct, I don't know).

The majority of covid deaths are in those aged 70 plus and you'd be searching a long time to find someone in that age bracket (younger, even) whose death certificate would have nothing other than covid on it. Just because Agnes had high blood pressure throughout her adult life doesn't mean she didn't actually die from coronavirus.

Spot on.  It's been a constant, exceptionally tedious, but persistent argument from the anti-mask, anti-lockdown brigade that "ah but most people dying with covid have underlying health conditions!", presented as some kind of checkmate argument-winner that covid ain't that big a deal, but completely failing to recognise that "underlying health conditions" aren't all terminal.  Wilful pig-headed ignorance.  Someone could pootle along through a long, productive, happy life with asthma and then covid comes along and kills them 10-15 years before they would have died normally, but these arseholes don't consider that a covid death.  p***ks.  

[tamthebam]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

A friend of mine just completed 21 days of quarantine getting into China. Got an anal swab done for final test.

Makes me think of the old "wire brush and Dettol" joke that- a bit rough on the next guy who's getting a tonsil swab.

[tamthebam]

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Like this?

Never mind that, what did that cockwomble tamthebam say?!

[Donathan]

I'm hugely surprised that the hospital rate of under 30s was anything approaching 1%. I'd have thought it would have been even a fraction of that again. 
 

Well Tbf it was 1% of this sample of confirmed positive cases which is not the same as 1% of actual infections. A significant proportion of under 30s won’t know that they even have covid as they won’t present for a test either because they don’t have symptoms at all, or their symptoms are so minor that they assumed it was just a cold.

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Louis Litt said:

This is utter nonsense (even if the numbers are factually correct, I don't know).

The majority of covid deaths are in those aged 70 plus and you'd be searching a long time to find someone in that age bracket (younger, even) whose death certificate would have nothing other than covid on it. Just because Agnes had high blood pressure throughout her adult life doesn't mean she didn't actually die from coronavirus.

You say they are utter nonsense, but they are consistent with the same data in England.

The bit in bold is a complete waffle completely unrelated to anything I said. The facts (as they have been for some time) are quite clear - the presence of age, and an existing underlying health condition massively increases the chances of death from Covid. Therefore it stands to reason that vaccinating those who are CEV & CV, along with everyone aged 50 and over, will greatly reduce the number of deaths from Covid. This is obviously good, and we should take confidence from the data so far that the vaccines will achieve this.

I don't understand the issue with saying that, and I challenge you (and @resk) to explain how anything there is covid denying, anti-mask or anti-lockdown.

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Todd_is_God