Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's only really in the last 2 weeks that we in Scotland in particular have really gotten going at a decent pace, so the few weeks line is probably fair here.

This sort of data will come from the UKG I assume.

It is available from the SG though. In an easier to read format on the likes of travelling tabby.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Benjamin_Nevis]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Yep. Thats the way it will go. The thing that actually adapts, is people. People will adapt, ensure they can socialise and move on. Thats what will lay waste to an entire industry and jobs. It cant be allowed to happen, and I'd say it probably wont be allowed to in the ling run, but like others said, nothing would surprise me now

Pubs and various other hospitality providers will adapt as well. Twenty years ago folk were complaining that the smoking ban would finish the pub trade when all that really happened was that a few shiteholes closed their doors and pubs/restaurants became places you could go without leaving smelling like you'd been standing a bit close to a bonfire for 3 hours.

This is purely anecdotal of course but the only pub I know of round here that's not planning on re-opening is a total shitpit whose owner has been trying to get his son to take it over for years so he can retire to Blackpool. 

 

[vikingTON]

13 hours ago, Monkey Tennis said:

No, not like being at school at all.  I can't believe I'm explaining this, but at school, they'd be surrounded by peers and they would be set more work than is currently the case.

Neither of which stops children from declaring themselves bored with the task that they're doing and kicking off. Indeed the presence of their peers makes it more likely that someone is distracting everyone by kicking off themselves.  

Quote

The thing stopping people from being outside is that there's nowhere to go.  Being outside isn't that appealing at this time of year.  

Erm there absolutely are still places to go - if you're a child and not a braying old Borders' bumpkin. Parks are still open, as indeed are other open-access facilities such as football pitches. I passed my nearest set of 4G pitches on my daily stroll yesterday and there were - as usual throughout the current lockdown - dozens of weans playing football: while one parent was even using part of the full-sized pitch to set up a fucking circuit route with cones. 

Not that even having these facilities is critical to children, who will otherwise do their time-honoured tactic of 'hanging around in groups acting like arseholes'. Usually getting the local train service to shuttle them around from one area to another. 

Quote

I love the bit about the different world I must be living in, by the way.  Obviously, I couldn't possibly rival your levels of insight on this one.

It doesn't take insight but rather 'having a working pair of eyes' to grasp that children are not being forced to stay indoors without anything else to do, just because the local swimming pool or soft play centre isn't open champ.

Edited February 16, 2021 by vikingTON

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Yes but we don't at this point know how similar/dissimilar the new normal will be to our previous normal. 

People who casualy use phrases like "new normal" as if the Government introducing regulations which will completely change the way society as we know it operates is ok are freaks and part of the problem tbh.

[Billy Jean King]

It is available from the SG though. On the likes of travelling tabby.

I'm not sure what good 4 nations efficacy and effect studies would provide. It probably needs a UK wide approach. The fact the UKG chief medical chaps repeatedly say 2 more weeks without further reason why is a concern. I've never even seen the question asked of the Scottish equivalents. Journalists to concerned with footballers and closing the M74 !

[Marshmallo]

Latest fear propaganda from the BBC today - you can catch it again and again and again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56049680?__twitter_impression=true

[Billy Jean King]

People who casualy use phrases like "new normal" as if the Government introducing regulations which will completely change the way society as we know it operates is ok are freaks and part of the problem tbh.

It's just a phrase but clearly if its accepted that sectors of society are being forced to "adapt" then it's being used in a correct context. Things will change be that for good or bad so new normal seems pretty accurate.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Billy Jean King said:

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It is available from the SG though. On the likes of travelling tabby.

I'm not sure what good 4 nations efficacy and effect studies would provide. It probably needs a UK wide approach. The fact the UKG chief medical chaps repeatedly say 2 more weeks without further reason why is a concern. I've never even seen the question asked of the Scottish equivalents. Journalists to concerned with footballers and closing the M74 !

There is a whole host of relevant info on travelling tabby. You should have a look if you are interested.

Scottish journalists have largely been a disgrace - there was a cracker yesterday where one asked a question that NS had already answered essentially word for word in her main address, and another who you could tell was so excited about how clever she would look asking about yellow and red cards she could hardly speak.

Absolute cretins.

[ayrmad]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

People who casualy use phrases like "new normal" as if the Government introducing regulations which will completely change the way society as we know it operates is ok are freaks and part of the problem tbh.

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Latest fear propaganda from the BBC today - you can catch it again and again and again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56049680?__twitter_impression=true

If having a headache is the worst she's ever felt in her life then she's done not bad IMO.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

RIP then m9

Edited February 16, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[vikingTON]

10 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Pubs and various other hospitality providers will adapt as well. Twenty years ago folk were complaining that the smoking ban would finish the pub trade when all that really happened was that a few shiteholes closed their doors and pubs/restaurants became places you could go without leaving smelling like you'd been standing a bit close to a bonfire for 3 hours.

This is purely anecdotal of course but the only pub I know of round here that's not planning on re-opening is a total shitpit whose owner has been trying to get his son to take it over for years so he can retire to Blackpool. 

I expect a large number of 'wet-led pubs' to never recover properly and will eventually throw in the towel, unless this endless social distancing drivel is punted. The only winners will be 'family-friendly,  glorified barns serving food to Coldplay backing music. Very much a clownshoes Leitch and the gang's sort of place.

[Paco]

On the subject of Israel, worth noting that they are going down the domestic vaccine passport route at least in the short-term. Opening up a lot of domestic activity next week - under social distancing - for those who can prove they’ve either been fully vaccinated or have had Covid. About 30% of the population had been fully vaccinated, in the UK about 23% have received one dose so we’re probably about sixteen weeks away from an equivalent scenario.

Anything other than it going absolutely fine in Israel would be a disaster for us here. No reason it shouldn’t, but worth watching closely.

[ayrmad]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

RIP then m9

I just take things in my stride, I've always found my best hospitality experiences were due to the company I was in rather than the environment. 

[Dons_1988]

2 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

You seem to be taking a Standard Grade concept of business studies and applying it fairly simplistically.

Yes, it is the case that businesses must adapt to circumstances, and the most successful ones are agile in that regards.

No, that doesn't mean the government have a blank canvas to set policy that completely re-shapes an entire industry, particularly if it's based on speculative modelling by scientists over a short term period, and the new industry that emerges from it is not what the public want. The adapted model could quite easily end up being a massively downscaled version of what we had before.

Don't forget that Tim Martin is one of these entrepreneurs who adapted to the modern hospitality industry prior to Covid-19 by creating a business model that completely undercut local pubs in pricing. Industries 'adapting' can be a bad thing.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Paco said:

On the subject of Israel, worth noting that they are going down the domestic vaccine passport route at least in the short-term. Opening up a lot of domestic activity next week - under social distancing - for those who can prove they’ve either been fully vaccinated or have had Covid. About 30% of the population had been fully vaccinated, in the UK about 23% have received one dose so we’re probably about sixteen weeks away from an equivalent scenario.

Anything other than it going absolutely fine in Israel would be an absolute disaster for us here. No reason it shouldn’t be, but worth watching closely.

Two things are guaranteed here.

If it goes well, it will get ignored by NS and Leitch.

If it goes badly, though, they will be all over it.

[renton]

33 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Israel was pumping out positive data within 4-6 weeks of starting their vaccination program. We are 9 weeks in and the UK is still saying another 2 weeks, the line that been peddled for at least 3 weeks now.


 

1. Israel have blasted through it much quicker. Currently at something like 77% where we are on 23% - so they would have hit a tipping point for seeing meaningful differences in the various cohorts much faster than us.

2. They probably weren't delaying the second Pfizer shot, so our groups will have some protection but likely lower than the comparable Israeli group, so again likely to see a more dramatic impact sooner.

3. On a good day, AZ 2 shots is something like 82% vs. Pfizer 95% and one shot AZ interim data was something grim like 50%? So while Israel will be benefiting from double shotting large swathes of their population to >90% in a much quicker time frame, we will be chunking along, slower, with a likely 60-70% efficiency rate, until we get heavy into double dosing.

 

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

I just take things in my stride, I've always found my best hospitality experiences were due to the company I was in rather than the environment. 

Well, yes. But I don't generally keep myself 1m/2m away from the company i'm with. I'd find needing to phone the opposite site of the room (because shouting would be banned) a bit of a mood killer tbh.

[Steven W]

12 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

There is a whole host of relevant info on travelling tabby. You should have a look if you are interested.

Scottish journalists have largely been a disgrace - there was a cracker yesterday where one asked a question that NS had already answered essentially word for word in her main address, and another who you could tell was so excited about how clever she would look asking about yellow and red cards she could hardly speak.

Absolute cretins.

Can only echo your thoughts on Traveling Tabby. Really quite remarkable what that lad is putting together on a daily basis.

You can be sure the politicians of the country are casting their eye on it too. And if not, they most certainly should be.

 

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

1. Israel have blasted through it much quicker. Currently at something like 77% where we are on 23% - so they would have hit a tipping point for seeing meaningful differences in the various cohorts much faster than us.

2. They probably weren't delaying the second Pfizer shot, so our groups will have some protection but likely lower than the comparable Israeli group, so again likely to see a more dramatic impact sooner.

3. On a good day, AZ 2 shots is something like 82% vs. Pfizer 95% and one shot AZ interim data was something grim like 50%? So while Israel will be benefiting from double shotting large swathes of their population to >90% in a much quicker time frame, we will be chunking along, slower, with a likely 60-70% efficiency rate, until we get heavy into double dosing.

 

70% and 92% (I think - was over 90 anyway) I got told prior to mine on Friday