Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mizfit]

Don't really understand what you're getting at here. Are you suggesting an ongoing situation where people get vaccinated, a new variant emerges, we lockdown again until the vaccine is tweaked and then repeat this cycle?

The current vaccines do what they have to do which is prevent severe illness. Once everyone has been jagged there's no reason for restrictions to be put in place ever again. New variants will emerge (as they probably have been doing since day 1 of the pandemic) and the vaccines will probably need to be constantly updated but there's no need for us to go back into hiding for months at a time while we wait on that happening.

The endgame I think will be treating the vaccine like the flu vaccine. Annual jabs for those over x age and underlying conditions.

[10menwent2mow]

Quick maths based on SuperBigAl's daily figures. We've had an average daily drop of about 3% per day to get us where we are just now.

To get to Leitch's below 50, it will take another 31 days if rates continue to drop at this rate.

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

The endgame I think will be treating the vaccine like the flu vaccine. Annual jabs for those over x age and underlying conditions.

 

Yup.

I said it months ago, covid is not flu, that much we know but in the long term, the treatment of it will more or less be parallel to current flu treatment.

[Burnieman]

17 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Helen Lovejoy nonsense. No one is advocating going to countries which don’t have their vulnerable groups vaccinated, would have thought that would be obvious. 

This is where we're heading, some countries already happy to admit those who have been vaccinated twice (although very few have at this precise moment), or even can prove they have had Covid and therefore carry some degree of immunity.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/covid-vaccine-travel-holiday-immunotourism-b1797099.html?fbclid=IwAR1klWSPEeZdShVzzn9AL0H4vCZra3kvuM1EEDrWunLzsY0luv3ij54uznQ

[Caledonian1]

1 minute ago, 10menwent2mow said:

Quick maths based on SuperBigAl's daily figures. We've had an average daily drop of about 3% per day to get us where we are just now.

To get to Leitch's below 50, it will take another 31 days if rates continue to drop at this rate.

Could drop at a faster rate as a greater percentage will have been vaccinated (allowing for vaccine to take effect) As suggested yesterday we could be in the range of 50/100k by the end of February

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Ron Aldo said:

Don't really understand what you're getting at here. Are you suggesting an ongoing situation where people get vaccinated, a new variant emerges, we lockdown again until the vaccine is tweaked and then repeat this cycle?

The current vaccines do what they have to do which is prevent severe illness. Once everyone has been jagged there's no reason for restrictions to be put in place ever again. New variants will emerge (as they probably have been doing since day 1 of the pandemic) and the vaccines will probably need to be constantly updated but there's no need for us to go back into hiding for months at a time while we wait on that happening.

Say a variant that a vaccine resistant variant hits the UK with no restrictions then we would be back to February 2020's position and would require a lockdown to develop and administer the new vaccines. 

It's been recorded that the vaccines already have reduced efficacy against some newer variants and it's logical to assume that will get worse the more mutations there are.

[Bairnardo]

Yup.
I said it months ago, covid is not flu, that much we know but in the long term, the treatment of it will more or less be parallel to current flu treatment.

Given the probable larger requirement for vaccine uptake including future boosters, I wouldnt be surprised at all to see the whole thing majorly streamlined. An orally administered booster, or a home administered jag sent out every autumn... The big job is well on the way to being done. It's just keeping tabs in the years to follow presumably.

[madwullie]

10 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

You've had it explained to you on more than one occasion why this wouldn't be the case for an updated vaccine, why every time a booster or an updated version comes out, it does not render the old version useless or ineffective but you don't seem intent on taking the information on board.

If a booster is required, it's not instantaneous for it to be in however million vulnerable arms. 

Say 3/4 weeks from conception to actually starting to be mass produced. Then we have to have a system ready up and running to stick it in the arms that can go from 0-60 in no tine. That doesn't happen in a day either. Is 8 weeks to do the same amount of people who get the flu vaccine too long? 

The flu virus hits with seasonal predictability. As far as I can see, CV isn't particularly seasonal - does this not mean the variants can arise at any time. Again, not insurmountable, we just need to be ready to go at any moment.

Edited February 4, 2021 by madwullie

[madwullie]

But yes as @Bairnardosays, a pill or something would be an massive game changer. Pure holy grail material 

[Detournement]

7 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

You've had it explained to you on more than one occasion why this wouldn't be the case for an updated vaccine, why every time a booster or an updated version comes out, it does not render the old version useless or ineffective but you don't seem intent on taking the information on board.

You've also had it explained that a booster would more than likely not be rolled out to the entire population, only those that needed it. The existing jab would provide more than sufficient immunity to the healthy and a booster would provide that extra immunity to the vulnerable.

The new variant potentially renders the older vaccine redundant.

Even if it is only the vulnerable who need a new vaccine that would still require a significant lockdown.

If holidays greatly raise the probability of another lockdown then they will be off the agenda. Some people might love watching the telly for 49 weeks of the year plus a couple of holidays abroad. so aren't bothered but I'd rather get back to normal within the UK.

[djchapsticks]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

If a booster is required, it's not instantaneous for it to be in however million vulnerable arms. 

Say 3/4 weeks from conception to actually starting to be mass produced. Then we have to have a system ready up and running to stick it in the arms that can go from 0-60 in no tine. That doesn't happen in a day either. Is 8 weeks to do the same amount of people who get the flu vaccine too long? 

The point is stuff like this needs to be considered and again, I would hope we wouldn't (and wouldn't imagine we would) lock down or anything while this was ongoing, but there are actual timescales here that don't involve just saying we can tweak vaccines instantaneously and filing any other considerations in the bin

The flu virus hits with seasonal predictability. As far as I can see, CV isn't particularly seasonal - does this not mean the variants can arise at any time. Again, not insurmountable, we just need to be ready to go at any moment.

Again though, the need for a booster wouldn't render existing vaccines ineffective so any vaccination programme ongoing would continue and still be offering protection while a booster was formulated and rolled out.

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Snafu said:

No, you are suggesting locking down every time a new variant appears. The vax companies are working on it right now and it takes a lot less time to tweak a vaccine to a new variant than it does to start a new vaccine from scratch, weeks not months.

Next September like it or not we will have everything open, variants or no variants, I'm looking forward to traveling to exotic locations like Greenock or Motherwell to watch football, having a pre match pint in a pub and then before the train journey back up north a takeaway fish and chips, which I haven't had in forever.

 

Everything should be open in the UK by June imo. 

The issue is foreign travel.

[Detournement]

Just now, djchapsticks said:

Again though, the need for a booster wouldn't render existing vaccines ineffective so any vaccination programme ongoing would continue and still be offering protection

You continually saying this doesn't make it true. 

[djchapsticks]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

The new variant potentially renders the older vaccine redundant.

Even if it is only the vulnerable who need a new vaccine that would still require a significant lockdown.

If holidays greatly raise the probability of another lockdown then they will be off the agenda. Some people might love watching the telly for 49 weeks of the year plus a couple of holidays abroad. so aren't bothered but I'd rather get back to normal within the UK.

Redundant? As in completely ineffective?!

Go on then - show me where that's being reported.

[Todd_is_God]

56 minutes ago, Juanhourjoe said:

Maybe, once the other country you want to go to has vaccinated their vulnerable groups. If you can still transmit the virus even with both doses. It would seem selfish to head off to other places, just cause we're in the clear. Btw most countries will be no where near that by the end of the year.

Mexico, for example, is open for tourists right now.

Are you suggesting that not travelling to Mexico, and therefore putting Mexican tourism workers' jobs at risk, is less selfish than travelling to Mexico and following their current covid legislation?

It's an interesting take, i'll give you that.

[djchapsticks]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

You continually saying this doesn't make it true. 

Give me an example of any successful vaccine....any vaccine at all in human history that has been rendered completely ineffective, reduced to an effective placebo, by a virus mutation.

Just one.

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

Redundant? As in completely ineffective?!

Go on then - show me where that's being reported.

It's not being reported because it's not happening yet but it's obviously possible. Some current vaccines are down to 60% efficacy versus certain new variants within 6 months of their creation. Go another 6 or 12 months down the line and that can potentially be much lower. 

 

[djchapsticks]

Just now, Detournement said:

It's not being reported because it's not happening yet but it's obviously possible. Some current vaccines are down to 60% efficacy versus certain new variants within 6 months of their creation. Go another 6 or 12 months down the line and that can potentially be much lower. 

 

Enjoy your night mate. 

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, djchapsticks said:

Give me an example of any successful vaccine....any vaccine at all in human history that has been rendered completely ineffective, reduced to an effective placebo, by a virus mutation.

Just one.

Different flu vaccines are required every winter. Covid is less seasonal and more infectious.

[101]

54 minutes ago, virginton said:

Nobody is sticking a gun to a country's head to force them to accept international tourism. But in reality regional economies within Spain, Portugal, Greece etc. are heavily dependent on foreign visitors, so it is not even remotely 'selfish' to travel there. Hundreds of thousands of their livelihoods actually depend on a return to normal, whether the bed-wetters on here like it or not. 

The EU was opened up last June for this exact reason and it will be open again this summer to countries with a high rate of vaccination. 

We are a third country now though, it wouldn't blow me away if some bright spark in the EU suggests free movement within the bloc. Don't know how much UK tourism makes up of tourism overall, I would imagine it's the majority of Spain's tourism who will be keen to have the country open.