Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, Richey Edwards said:

I got a third nipple and a second nose right next to my arse.

 

2 hours ago, Richey Edwards said:

I got a third nipple and a second nose right next to my arse.

You also got a dose of the hiccoughs.

[Billy Jean King]

It's more the idea the idea that NS doesn't plan on letting anyone in or out, yet still talks about how we'll need restrictions because of the number of people unvaccinated abroad that I find nauseating.

Any country with large numbers unvaccinated will simply not open its borders. We will see agreements with countries at least as far forward as we are similar to last summer. I also don't see anyone not having proof of 2 doses getting in anywhere so that will rule out a fair chunk of this summer for people under 50 unfortunately.

[djchapsticks]

 

The evidence that these vaccines are not only working but working to a quite incredible level is becoming overwhelming.

We are going to reach a stage very, very soon indeed, where no-one, not even the ultra-cautious SG can realistically justify the restriction of people, businesses and livelihoods once the vaccine programme is fully implemented. Not even threats such as 'ThE mUtAtIoNs' or the spectre of people bringing in covid from abroad en-masse to an almost fully vaccinated population will be enough to keep all but the most risk-averse from getting back to it.

[Michael W]

3 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Burnieman said:

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.
If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.
By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.
So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.
Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.
I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.
So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.
So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.
Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.
 
 
 

They won't be vaccinating any under 16s. None of the approved vaccines are licensed for use in under 16s beyond exceptional intervention.

There's a wider point in here as to whether a vaccine will be authorised for school-aged children. 

Granted teenagers are generally not harmed by the virus, they still catch it and spread it as we have seen. That being the case, since some are becoming preoccupied with "we don't know if it can still be spread" for advocating the continuance of restrictions after vaccinations are completed, surely we'll be administering to teenagers as well at some stage? 

[Elixir]

17 minutes ago, super_carson said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

Apologies if someone already posted this, but I was surprised to see a fairly positive story on the BBC.  

I can just about take international restrictions, but I'm in a similar position to @Elixir in that my missus is from abroad.  Luckily it's Ireland, and it looks like restrictions coming back from Ireland aren't too bad but going over is very hard with having to quarantine.  We have to be careful because her mum is extremely high-risk, but that's over a year since she saw her family and it's starting to take it's toll.  I get that there isn't much sympathy for people being told that they might not get to Tenerife or wherever, but when people can't get home to see their families it's very tough.  

In the end, things usually work out. Here's hoping for everyone.

[Elixir]

3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

 

The evidence that these vaccines are not only working but working to a quite incredible level is becoming overwhelming.

We are going to reach a stage very, very soon indeed, where no-one, not even the ultra-cautious SG can realistically justify the restriction of people, businesses and livelihoods once the vaccine programme is fully implemented. Not even threats such as 'ThE mUtAtIoNs' or the spectre of people bringing in covid from abroad en-masse to an almost fully vaccinated population will be enough to keep all but the most risk-averse from getting back to it.

Another great post, and it's certainly what pragmatism and logic would suggest...

[Todd_is_God]

12 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's more the idea the idea that NS doesn't plan on letting anyone in or out, yet still talks about how we'll need restrictions because of the number of people unvaccinated abroad that I find nauseating.

Any country with large numbers unvaccinated will simply not open its borders. We will see agreements with countries at least as far forward as we are similar to last summer. I also don't see anyone not having proof of 2 doses getting in anywhere so that will rule out a fair chunk of this summer for people under 50 unfortunately.

I'm not sure what relevance the number of unvaccinated people in any other country has on the restrictions we have in place here when we are both highly vaccinated and have closed borders.

The likes of Leitch standing up and telling us in August that we can still only go to the pub until 10.30pm, with, for example, a maximum of five other people from one other household because Turkey are a bit behind on vaccinations and we therefore just don't know if there is a new variant in Istanbul simply shouldn't be entertained.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Elixir]

I guess things could always be even worse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55905102

[Mark Connolly]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

I guess things could always be even worse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55905102

Misread the President's name as Magalufi and thought he would be an expert on infections.

[Billy Jean King]

 
Is he saying that somewhere around 70-75% vaccinated (first shot only?) and we're at herd immunity stage?

Given natural R, efficacy and refusal rate that's practically impossible.

[vikingTON]

9 minutes ago, Michael W said:

There's a wider point in here as to whether a vaccine will be authorised for school-aged children. 

Granted teenagers are generally not harmed by the virus, they still catch it and spread it as we have seen. That being the case, since some are becoming preoccupied with "we don't know if it can still be spread" for advocating the continuance of restrictions after vaccinations are completed, surely we'll be administering to teenagers as well at some stage? 

Or we can just lock the brats indoors for months this time while the pub opens up again. 

[Burnieman]

18 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Burnieman said:

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.
If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.
By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.
So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.
Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.
I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.
So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.
So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.
Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.
 
 
 

They won't be vaccinating any under 16s. None of the approved vaccines are licensed for use in under 16s beyond exceptional intervention.

Cool, that then leaves resources free for adults. Even better.

[djchapsticks]

7 minutes ago, Elixir said:

I guess things could always be even worse: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-55905102

July 2032 - With the world now at 98.7% immunity, Covid reduced to only 200 deaths a year worldwide and a sustained annual vaccination programme for the vulnerable, Jason Leitch advises the Government to impose another 2 weeks of lockdowns to wait and see if Tanzania will commit to a vaccine programme, proclaiming that their failure to do so could result in another spike if we reopen despite no-one from Tanzania visiting Scotland since the ill-fated 4 day reopening of 2025. This has now been reviewed every 2 weeks for the last 11 years.

Janey Godley makes a 'fucking hilarious' voiceover video to commemorate the occasion.

Edited February 2, 2021 by djchapsticks

[vikingTON]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Burnieman said:

 
Is he saying that somewhere around 70-75% vaccinated (first shot only?) and we're at herd immunity stage?

Given natural R, efficacy and refusal rate that's practically impossible.

No it isn't and he's just set out why. 

What people are forgetting here is that the number with pre-existing immunity from actually having had it over the past twelve months is going to be substantial as well. 

[Billy Jean King]

There's a wider point in here as to whether a vaccine will be authorised for school-aged children. 
Granted teenagers are generally not harmed by the virus, they still catch it and spread it as we have seen. That being the case, since some are becoming preoccupied with "we don't know if it can still be spread" for advocating the continuance of restrictions after vaccinations are completed, surely we'll be administering to teenagers as well at some stage? 

Depends on your definition of teenager. They are not licensed for U16s so can't be used on them whether we would like to or not.

[Elixir]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

No it isn't and he's just set out why. 

What people are forgetting here is that the number with pre-existing immunity from actually having had it over the past twelve months is going to be substantial as well. 

But this is the first virus in history to procure next to no immunity after natural infection...

[Mark Connolly]

3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

July 2032 - With the world now at 98.7% immunity, Covid reduced to only 200 deaths a year worldwide and a sustained annual vaccination programme for the vulnerable, Jason Leitch advises the Government to impose another 2 weeks of lockdowns to wait and see if Tanzania will commit to a procurement programme. This has now been reviewed every 2 weeks for the last 11 years.

Janey Godley makes a 'fucking hilarious' voiceover video to commemorate the occasion.

Godley is already 60 and from Shettleston, so there's a fair chance she'll be well gone by July 2032.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully.

[Bairnardo]

7 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, Burnieman said:

 
Is he saying that somewhere around 70-75% vaccinated (first shot only?) and we're at herd immunity stage?

Given natural R, efficacy and refusal rate that's practically impossible.

It was just yesterday I posted an opinion which you challenged me to back up. That opinion was considerably less dubious than this one. IIRC, it was that Scotland and England will loosen restrictions differently, and that England are doing better at vaccinating. Now here you are dismissing herd immunity.....

[Les Cabbage]

[Sergeant Wilson]

9 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

July 2032 - With the world now at 98.7% immunity, Covid reduced to only 200 deaths a year worldwide and a sustained annual vaccination programme for the vulnerable, Jason Leitch advises the Government to impose another 2 weeks of lockdowns to wait and see if Tanzania will commit to a vaccine programme, proclaiming that their failure to do so could result in another spike if we reopen despite no-one from Tanzania visiting Scotland since the ill-fated 4 day reopening of 2025. This has now been reviewed every 2 weeks for the last 11 years.

On Off the Ball?