Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[craigkillie]

4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

 

That guy is self-aware, it will be a pisstake.

[sparky88]

29 minutes ago, Binos said:

No people will just do it

Not aware any south east asian was ever wearing a mask because it was mandatory

More because of the sars mers bird flu and they've become paranoid

Collective paranoia will linger globally for some time

 

It goes back even further when south East Asian countries were the ones pushing masks during the Spanish flu

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.

If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.

By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.

So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.

Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.

I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.

So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.

So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.

Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.

It's more the idea the idea that NS doesn't plan on letting anyone in or out, yet still talks about how we'll need restrictions because of the number of people unvaccinated abroad that I find nauseating.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

It's more the idea the idea that NS doesn't plan on letting anyone in or out, yet still talks about how we'll need restrictions because of the number of people unvaccinated abroad that I find nauseating.

I’m fed up too, i know they can’t give dates but when you’re deep into this like we are it feels never ending

[Burnieman]

9 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's more the idea the idea that NS doesn't plan on letting anyone in or out, yet still talks about how we'll need restrictions because of the number of people unvaccinated abroad that I find nauseating.

That is laughable nonsense.  We'll all be 2 jagged by July at the latest, at what point does normality kick in if it isn't then?

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, effeffsee_the2nd said:

I’m fed up too, i know they can’t give dates but when you’re deep into this like we are it feels never ending

I could stomach her saying we need to be cautious for a bit when the border first opens (depending when that is and what that looked like), but to keep it essentially closed, then say we will have to keep the same restrictions in place anyway, makes no sense to me.

I don't understand the thought process or motive behind that if i'm being honest.

As I said the other day, atm it feels like we are constantly being asked to give up what is important and enjoyable to us as individuals, essentially the things that make life worth living, for an ever increasing amount of time, yet being given absolutely nothing back in return.

[Bert Raccoon]

Dearie me

[Elixir]

21 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.

If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.

By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.

So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.

Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.

I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.

So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.

So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.

Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.

 

 

[djchapsticks]

3 minutes ago, Bert Raccoon said:

Dearie me

Why the f**k would he still need to walk with a zimmer if he's deid and in heaven?

He's been shortchanged there.

[Scosha]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

I could stomach her saying we need to be cautious for a bit when the border first opens (depending when that is and what that looked like), but to keep it essentially closed, then say we will have to keep the same restrictions in place anyway, makes no sense to me.

I don't understand the thought process or motive behind that if i'm being honest.

As I said the other day, atm it feels like we are constantly being asked to give up what is important and enjoyable to us as individuals, essentially the things that make life worth living, for an ever increasing amount of time, yet being given absolutely nothing back in return.

The idea of us living under restrictions whilst our borders are shut is fucking mental if we’ve all (or the majority) had the vaccine. 
I really hope the actions of the UK govt force NS hand and launches her strategy into the sea. I can stomach these restrictions currently but like others have said, what needs to change if we’re all vaccinated? When does it end? 

[TheScarf]

26 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

That guy is self-aware, it will be a pisstake.

Yeah I follow him. He’s at it.

[djchapsticks]

1 minute ago, Tynierose said:

I wasn't sure until now, but I'm now fairly convinced heaven is a load of shite.

Some going getting up those cloudy steps as well with a wheelie zimmer.

[Binos]

27 minutes ago, realmadrid said:

As one of the lucky few to get to some games just now doing media work for my club I can confirm that on a cold day in Dingwall (or anywhere else) the club mask will continue to be used next season for sure.

On the odd occasion where I have been asked to give a lift to one of the younger members of the team who does not drive, we are required to wear them by the club and its far to hot, even with the windows open as they also request we do.

If you're watching games in dingwall you could try putting a mask over your eyes as well

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Elixir said:

 

 

Yeah. Even 70% Vaccinated (incredibly low estimate IMO) + Previously Infected + Natural immunity will more than allow the HIT to be surpassed.

Absolutely maddening to see people trying to shift the goalposts on herd immunity, now that achieving it has become a more than realistic target.

[Burnieman]

8 minutes ago, Elixir said:

 

 

 

Is he saying that somewhere around 70-75% vaccinated (first shot only?) and we're at herd immunity stage?

Edited February 2, 2021 by Burnieman

[NotThePars]

Gone at one of the biggest Remain heads finding out senior members of the EU and Macron etc are also arseholes

[Elixir]

7 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yeah. Even 70% Vaccinated (incredibly low estimate IMO) + Previously Infected + Natural immunity will more than allow the HIT to be surpassed.

Absolutely maddening to see people trying to shift the goalposts on herd immunity, now that achieving it has become a more than realistic target.

Agreed. I think we will hit 75-80%+ vaccine uptake in the UK.

6 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

Is he saying that somewhere around 70-75% vaccinated (first shot only?) and we're at herd immunity stage?

Unsure about after the initial dose, though that will still have a big impact.

[djchapsticks]

The dissenting voices of the science community are now getting louder.

Worth bearing in mind that those with conservative or bleak outlooks and opinions have stayed at the forefront of authority and opinion until now on these matters in the absence of a vaccine.

However, the presence of the vaccine is a game changer. These voices are now throwing their hat into the ring with a bit of realism to boot.

Here's a swift dose of the reality that we know so far:

 

[super_carson]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55910964

Apologies if someone already posted this, but I was surprised to see a fairly positive story on the BBC.  

I can just about take international restrictions, but I'm in a similar position to @Elixir in that my missus is from abroad.  Luckily it's Ireland, and it looks like restrictions coming back from Ireland aren't too bad but going over is very hard with having to quarantine.  We have to be careful because her mum is extremely high-risk, but that's over a year since she saw her family and it's starting to take it's toll.  I get that there isn't much sympathy for people being told that they might not get to Tenerife or wherever, but when people can't get home to see their families it's very tough.  

[Billy Jean King]

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.
If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.
By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.
So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.
Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.
I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.
So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.
So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.
Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.
 
 
 

They won't be vaccinating any under 16s. None of the approved vaccines are licensed for use in under 16s beyond exceptional intervention.