Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[madwullie]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

We have evidence that some variants are slightly more likely to give people a few days in bed.

We can discuss vaccine efficacy like adults when it's acknowledged that the goal here is to ensure no one might ever feel a bit shit for a few days.

Why the desperation and urgency to tweak the current vaccines if its so insignificant? 

I suppose when you've spent 4k on ching and hookers, and extra £250 doesn't make much difference. 

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Binos said:

No people will just do it

So not restrictions then. Glad we cleared that up.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, madwullie said:

Why the desperation and urgency to tweak the current vaccines if its so insignificant? 

I suppose when you've spent 4k on ching and hookers, and extra £250 doesn't make much difference. 

Because if you can prevent additional mild illness for a particular strain, in the early part of the vaccine roll out then you may as well. From what I understand it isn't particularly difficult or expensive to do so.

The potential for people becoming mildly ill is not a reason for keeping restrictions in place beyond the initial vaccine roll out, though.

[Frankie S]

I took notes of Sturgeon’s speech today, in the hope that she might have some positive news about a route out of all this, and that those of us in the beleaguered hospitality, nightclub, live music and events sectors might be able to see some light at the end of a very long dark tunnel. 

This is what she said:

”We will be living with restrictions until all of across the U.K. and further, across the world, have vaccinated a (mumble, mumble) significant number of people’, and ‘given what we don’t yet know about the impact of the vaccination on transmission, we may actually be living with some degree of restrictions after we have vaccinated a significant sector of the population.’

So, my take from this is that ongoing government restrictions will be the new normal, and that a return to normality (rather than Sturgeon’s carefully-worded,  expectation-limiting ‘greater normality’) is a very, very long way off.

Given that ongoing restrictions and a return to the tier system, which is all the hope we’re being offered ATM, effectively consigns the live music industry (which everyone knows can’t operate under social distancing restrictions no matter how much SG hopes we might be able to run ‘test events’ at some unspecified point in the future to demonstrate some entirely spurious form of ‘viability’) - and the events services companies that service the music industry - to the dustbin; nightclubs (which aren’t even allowed to open in Tier 0), and hospitality (which can only just about break even with 100% rates relief, rent reductions, flexible furlough and / or other ongoing government support under SG’s onerous social distancing / curfews / alcohol bans and other mitigations strategy built into the tier system) will be crippled for the foreseeable future, with the likelihood of these industries continuing to shrivel and die, with the few remaining businesses drastically reducing overheads to survive in a heavily-restricted ‘new normal’ world of minuscule returns. 

I’d initially thought we’d get back to (something like) normal when the vulnerable groups (over 60s and those with underlying conditions + health care workers) were vaccinated, coinciding with the seasonal downturn of the virus in the late spring / early summer. I was quickly disabused of this notion. Then I consoled myself with the thought that at least with every adult in the U.K. likely to be vaccinated (or offered the vaccine) by September, we’d be out of this by October. Now, after Sturgeon’s latest hope-extinguishing speech, I genuinely think we’ll be dealing with government restrictions, social distancing and draconian travel restrictions for the rest of the year, at least, just in case. 

Certainly, for me, with circa 100 employees in businesses across the live music, events services, nightclubs and hospitality sectors, I’m now getting the impression that SG is so in thrall to this Zero Covid fantasy, and so petrified of risk from the media-hyped new variants (Sky News and the BBC today were both breathlessly reporting that the Essex variant and the South African variant are teaming up Avengers Assemble-style to form a super-powered mutant strain), and negative messaging and evasion of all risk and responsibility (rather than just the so-called ‘caution’ that many have lauded them for) is now so endemic to SG’s worldview, that they’ve boxed themselves into a corner, crippled by caution. Small businesses and independent operators in these sectors are now facing the prospect of admitting defeat after struggling through the last 12 months of this soul-destroying pandemic. If there is no hope forthcoming from government, then there is little or no incentive for business operators to continue. Job losses and business failures will escalate, further crippling a moribund Scottish economy that has already shown a more significant Covid-led downturn than any of the other home nations.

We keep waiting for SG to offer a glimpse of optimism for these sectors, but my feeling is that if the (incredibly efficient) vaccines aren’t enough to get Sturgeon offering a scintilla of hope to the business community, nothing will. Sturgeon seems to thrive on negative messaging and the tightening of restrictions. I’m resigned to the fact that restrictions will continue long after the cost / benefit analysis suggest they should be lifted, and I’ve seen absolutely nothing to suggest that Sturgeon will inspire in leading us out of this shitshow towards a more hopeful future.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Frankie S

[mizfit]

No people will just do it
Not aware any south east asian was ever wearing a mask because it was mandatory
More because of the sars mers bird flu and they've become paranoid
Collective paranoia will linger globally for some time
 

I reckon mask wearing will linger around for a couple of winters after this is over.

[Elixir]

9 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

It's not a point about restrictions per se. Just that the further you move away, shite happens at home and you're likely to miss some of it.

I don't see why you're getting annoyed about stating a fairly obvious fact.

While it's certainly more accurate for people living outside of Europe, the thought that you can hop on a plane and be back in your motherland in a couple of hours certainly allay those doubts.

Though I do wonder longer term what affect this will have on immigration in future.

2 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Why the desperation and urgency to tweak the current vaccines if its so insignificant? 

I suppose when you've spent 4k on ching and hookers, and extra £250 doesn't make much difference. 

In fairness, the current vaccines were developed to target the major strain which is now, generally speaking, over a year old. What is happening now isn't unexpected and should, in the short to medium term, be sufficiently safeguarded against.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

3 minutes ago, Frankie S said:

I took notes of Sturgeon’s speech today, in the hope that she might have some positive news about a route out of all this, and that those of us in the beleaguered hospitality, nightclub, live music and events sectors might be able to see some light at the end of a very long dark tunnel. 

This is what she said:

”We will be living with restrictions until all of across the U.K. and further, across the world, have vaccinated a (mumble, mumble) significant number of people’, and ‘given what we don’t yet know about the impact of the vaccination on transmission, we may actually be living with some degree of restrictions after we have vaccinated a significant sector of the population.’

So, my take from this is that ongoing government restrictions will be the new normal, and that a return to normality (rather than Sturgeon’s carefully-worded,  expectation-limiting ‘greater normality’) is a very, very long way off.

Given that ongoing restrictions and a return to the tier system, which is all the hope we’re being offered ATM, effectively consigns the live music industry (which everyone knows can’t operate under social distancing restrictions no matter how much SG hopes we might be able to run ‘test events’ at some unspecified point in the future to demonstrate some entirely spurious form of ‘viability’) - and the events services companies that service the music industry - to the dustbin; nightclubs (which aren’t even allowed to open in Tier 0), and hospitality (which can only just about break up even with 100% rates relief, rent reductions flexible furlough and / or other ongoing government support under SG’s onerous social distancing / curfews / alcohol bans and other mitigations strategy built into the tier system) will be crippled for the foreseeable future, with the likelihood of these industries continuing to shrivel and die, with the few remaining businesses drastically reducing overheads to survive in a heavily-restricted ‘new normal’ world of minuscule returns. 

I’d initially thought we’d get back to (something like) normal when the vulnerable groups (over 60s and those with underlying conditions + health care workers) were vaccinated, coinciding with the seasonal downturn of the virus in the late spring / early summer. I was quickly disabused of this notion. Then I consoled myself with the thought that at least with every adult in the U.K. likely to be vaccinated (or offered the vaccine) by September, we’d be out of this by October. Now, after Sturgeon’s latest hope-extinguishing speech, I genuinely think we’ll be dealing with government restrictions, social distancing and draconian travel restrictions for the rest of the year, at least, just in case. 

Certainly, for me, with circa 100 employees in businesses across the live music, events services, nightclubs and hospitality sectors, I’m now getting the impression that SG is so in thrall to this Zero Covid fantasy, and so petrified of risk from the media-hyped new variants (Sky News and the BBC today were both breathlessly reporting that the Essex variant and the South African variant are teaming up Avengers Assemble-style to form a super-powered mutant strain), and negative messaging and evasion of all risk and responsibility, (rather than just the so-called ‘caution’ that many have lauded them for) is now so endemic to SG’s worldview, that they’ve boxed themselves into a corner, crippled by caution. Small businesses and independent operators in these sectors are now facing the prospect of admitting defeat after struggling through the last 12 months of this soul-destroying pandemic. If there is no hope forthcoming from government, then there is little or no incentive for business operators to continue. Job losses and business failures will escalate, further crippling a moribund Scottish economy that has already shown a more significant Covid-led downturn than any of the other home nations.

We keep waiting for SG to offer a glimpse of optimism for these sectors, but my feeling is that if the (incredibly efficient) vaccines aren’t enough to get Sturgeon offering a scintilla of hope to the business community, nothing will. Sturgeon seems to thrive on negative messaging and the tightening of restrictions. I’m resigned to the fact that restrictions will continue long after the cost / benefit analysis suggest they should be lifted, and I’ve seen absolutely nothing to suggest that Sturgeon will inspire in leading us out of this shitshow towards a more hopeful future.

Good summary. Hopefully there will be a legal challenge in late spring to hold the doom merchant in chief’s feet to the fire and force us out of this shite when the vulnerable are protected. 

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, mizfit said:

I reckon mask wearing will linger around for a couple of winters after this is over.

 

By who? I won't be wearing one a minute longer than I have to.

And as they don't protect the wearer, there is no point in the minority wearing them.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Binos said:

No people will just do it

Not aware any south east asian was ever wearing a mask because it was mandatory

More because of the sars mers bird flu and they've become paranoid

Collective paranoia will linger globally for some time

 

El Dorado, El Dorado, WINE, WINE, WINE.

[Elixir]

10 minutes ago, Frankie S said:

.

Out of greenies for the day, but I really do share your pain. Fantastic, albeit bleak, post. The lack of acknowledgement from the Scottish Government throughout that this pandemic is not in fact, the end times, has been a total disgrace.

They're the sort of government who will only move and make changes once others elsewhere have done so, which then forces them to.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Elixir

[ICTChris]

London’s Orthodox Jews have an infection rate of 64%.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55903096

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

While it's certainly more accurate for people living outside of Europe, the thought that you can hop on a plane and be back in your motherland in a couple of hours certainly allay those doubts.

Though I do wonder longer term what affect this will have on immigration in future.

 

I won't Labour the point after this but a couple of hours optimistic. If you live apart from family and get news you need to get back you're relying on factors lining up. Flight time and ticket availability, flight delay, transfers running smoothly etc.

Trust me I went on holiday a few years back assured by hospital staff nothing drastic was imminent. I made a choice and went. Got back about 2 hours too late. You just need to accept it happens.

[Erih Shtrep]

5 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

I reckon mask wearing will linger around for a couple of winters after this is over.

 

I quite like wearing mine in the winter months.    That warm circulating air around your cheeks is a thing of beauty to the point I leave it on after the supermarket.   But driving in a mask is a no-no, I tuck it away in the RHS of my glovebox.  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

London’s Orthodox Jews have an infection rate of 64%.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55903096

Has Margaret Hodge blamed Jeremy Corbyn yet ???

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

London’s Orthodox Jews have an infection rate of 64%.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55903096

The uber religious communities all over the world seem to have had serious problems with not being able to deal with covid.

[doulikefish]

 

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, doulikefish said:

 

They are a weird lot

[Burnieman]

22 minutes ago, Frankie S said:

I took notes of Sturgeon’s speech today, in the hope that she might have some positive news about a route out of all this, and that those of us in the beleaguered hospitality, nightclub, live music and events sectors might be able to see some light at the end of a very long dark tunnel. 

This is what she said:

”We will be living with restrictions until all of across the U.K. and further, across the world, have vaccinated a (mumble, mumble) significant number of people’, and ‘given what we don’t yet know about the impact of the vaccination on transmission, we may actually be living with some degree of restrictions after we have vaccinated a significant sector of the population.’

So, my take from this is that ongoing government restrictions will be the new normal, and that a return to normality (rather than Sturgeon’s carefully-worded,  expectation-limiting ‘greater normality’) is a very, very long way off.

Given that ongoing restrictions and a return to the tier system, which is all the hope we’re being offered ATM, effectively consigns the live music industry (which everyone knows can’t operate under social distancing restrictions no matter how much SG hopes we might be able to run ‘test events’ at some unspecified point in the future to demonstrate some entirely spurious form of ‘viability’) - and the events services companies that service the music industry - to the dustbin; nightclubs (which aren’t even allowed to open in Tier 0), and hospitality (which can only just about break even with 100% rates relief, rent reductions flexible furlough and / or other ongoing government support under SG’s onerous social distancing / curfews / alcohol bans and other mitigations strategy built into the tier system) will be crippled for the foreseeable future, with the likelihood of these industries continuing to shrivel and die, with the few remaining businesses drastically reducing overheads to survive in a heavily-restricted ‘new normal’ world of minuscule returns. 

I’d initially thought we’d get back to (something like) normal when the vulnerable groups (over 60s and those with underlying conditions + health care workers) were vaccinated, coinciding with the seasonal downturn of the virus in the late spring / early summer. I was quickly disabused of this notion. Then I consoled myself with the thought that at least with every adult in the U.K. likely to be vaccinated (or offered the vaccine) by September, we’d be out of this by October. Now, after Sturgeon’s latest hope-extinguishing speech, I genuinely think we’ll be dealing with government restrictions, social distancing and draconian travel restrictions for the rest of the year, at least, just in case. 

Certainly, for me, with circa 100 employees in businesses across the live music, events services, nightclubs and hospitality sectors, I’m now getting the impression that SG is so in thrall to this Zero Covid fantasy, and so petrified of risk from the media-hyped new variants (Sky News and the BBC today were both breathlessly reporting that the Essex variant and the South African variant are teaming up Avengers Assemble-style to form a super-powered mutant strain), and negative messaging and evasion of all risk and responsibility, (rather than just the so-called ‘caution’ that many have lauded them for) is now so endemic to SG’s worldview, that they’ve boxed themselves into a corner, crippled by caution. Small businesses and independent operators in these sectors are now facing the prospect of admitting defeat after struggling through the last 12 months of this soul-destroying pandemic. If there is no hope forthcoming from government, then there is little or no incentive for business operators to continue. Job losses and business failures will escalate, further crippling a moribund Scottish economy that has already shown a more significant Covid-led downturn than any of the other home nations.

We keep waiting for SG to offer a glimpse of optimism for these sectors, but my feeling is that if the (incredibly efficient) vaccines aren’t enough to get Sturgeon offering a scintilla of hope to the business community, nothing will. Sturgeon seems to thrive on negative messaging and the tightening of restrictions. I’m resigned to the fact that restrictions will continue long after the cost / benefit analysis suggest they should be lifted, and I’ve seen absolutely nothing to suggest that Sturgeon will inspire in leading us out of this shitshow towards a more hopeful future.

Doing  a bit of basic number crunching on a reasonably accurate assumption there is 4,500,000 adults (over 16) in Scotland, and that we've got through 500,000 already.

If you're jagging 50,000 a day from around this point (hopefully more in the coming weeks), that gets us to around late April for every adult to be jagged once. That co-incides with the end of furlough.  They then continue with kids.

By the start of April, they should have started jagging people a second time within the 12 week window, that should take around 3 months, so the end of June, maybe creeping into July for the whole adult population in Scotland to be done twice.

So let's say worst case end of July for complete 2 jag immunity amongst adults assuming 50k a day and no disruption to supply. A bit later for all kids to be done.

Somewhere along that timeline, we'll reach "herd immunity" ie enough of the adult population have been jagged once or twice to surpress the virus to very low levels, with very few people being hospitalised. We'll also be in the better weather so no "winter effect". Transmission will have been broken.

I'll take a guess at saying that is going to be around late May/ early June.

So by June, in theory, we should be in the clear. Maybe not absolutely zero restrictions given the second jags will be ongoing, but have surpressed the virus and it's not going to be coming back in any significant degree, and if we're "importing it" then it won't get a foothold or cause hospitalisations.

So in theory, by June, we should see hospitality open, the borders open, holidays abroad, without any serious risk from Covid.

Anyone want to correct any errors or have their own stab at this feel free, but THAT is the sort of analysis I want to see from Govt, along with the usual caveats of course.

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Burnieman

[Sergeant Wilson]

6 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

The uber religious communities all over the world seem to have had serious problems with not being able to deal with covid.

Stamford Hill is a Hasidic population centre. Google shows up the reasons.

[realmadrid]

9 minutes ago, Erih Shtrep said:

I quite like wearing mine in the winter months.    That warm circulating air around your cheeks is a thing of beauty to the point I leave it on after the supermarket.   But driving in a mask is a no-no, I tuck it away in the RHS of my glovebox.  

As one of the lucky few to get to some games just now doing media work for my club I can confirm that on a cold day in Dingwall (or anywhere else) the club mask will continue to be used next season for sure.

On the odd occasion where I have been asked to give a lift to one of the younger members of the team who does not drive, we are required to wear them by the club and its far to hot, even with the windows open as they also request we do.