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ICTChris

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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Sorry if i missed this, but when can we expect to start seeing the cases dropping, what with a lockdown and vaccination program?  Seem to be at 1400 per day at the moment.

They’ve dropped fairly consistently over the last couple of weeks. The 7 day average is 1,795, last Monday it was 2,150, and Monday 4th it was 2,229.

Getting there.

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IMG_4510.thumb.jpg.ea2ca44e2a363f32a10f52d7323d822b.jpg

Why aren’t we vaccinating at the same rate as England?
Pointless graph, comparing the number of vaccinations across countries with hugely different populations isnt helpful in any way.

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So say you have 20 care homes and 10 vaccination staff, 50-70 residents to be jagged in each, give each staff member one for the morning and one for the afternoon. Would be the same as having 10 staff in a vaccination centre doing morning and afternoon shift. Not really getting the perception of logistical issues around this. Slightly more inconvenient but not really a staggering undertaking surely?


I think I heard all care home residents are getting the Pfizer vaccine, so there are bound to be logistical issues with travelling round care homes with -80deg super refrigerated vials

Getting the standard over 80s to rock up to a mass vaccination centre is bound to be miles quicker as you don’t have to move the vaccine while refrigerated

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Pointless graph, comparing the number of vaccinations across countries with hugely different populations isnt helpful in any way.


Ok here’s a graph for per 100 population. Why the huge discrepancy?

IMG_4511.jpg

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1 minute ago, Lex said:

 


Ok here’s a graph for per 100 population. Why the huge discrepancy?

IMG_4511.jpg

 

Scotland is going for the care homes first whereas I think BoJo is just going for everyone so they can do Eat Out To Help Out again and get another spike in cases and deaths.

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2 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


Ok here’s a graph for per 100 population. Why the huge discrepancy?

IMG_4511.jpg

 

ITS ALREADY BEEN EXPLAINED AT GREAT LENGTH JUST READ THE THREAD.    

England's approach will cost lives.  

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Scotland is going for the care homes first whereas I think BoJo is just going for everyone so they can do Eat Out To Help Out again and get another spike in cases and deaths.


Can’t we do the care homes and other people too? That’s what England are doing after all. This is a ridiculous failure by the Scottish Government.

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3 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


Can’t we do the care homes and other people too? That’s what England are doing after all. This is a ridiculous failure by the Scottish Government.

 

We could, indeed we are but with a different emphasis on how we move through the groups. So England are completing care homes at a slower rate but are using the spare capacity in their vaccination system to so more of the other groups. Since the other groups are logistically easier to vaccinate, more are done. Scotland is trying to get care homes ticked off as quickly as possible at the expense of a slower ramp up into the other groups.

Scotland's end point for getting through groups 1 through 4 are the same, I believe, as England.

Edited by renton

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6 hours ago, Steven W said:

England now to begin vaccinating the over 70s. And also 24hour vaccine pilot in London at the end of the month.

Some on here suggesting they're doing it all wrong.

I know Scotland's approach is to do the care homes first but I don't see why we can't do other priority groups concurrently. When a house builder builds a row of houses they don't wait to complete the first house before starting the second.

Will be an interesting couple of weeks comparing the two different approaches.

There's a few stories from people in England complaining that their elderly parents over 80, over 90 etc have not been contacted yet, so you can understand they're a bit concerned reading reports of them starting over 70's. But it really seems to be down to some areas of the country (North West) have been far quicker than others to get through their over 80's. No idea if it's also got anything to do with patchy supplies of the vaccine, but possibly that's a factor too, as we are seeing from some GP's in Scotland complaining about it. But we've still got a couple of weeks of January left, I'd only be concerned if we got to the end of the month and these people still hadn't heard anything.

In Scotland they're not finishing one group off before moving to the next. They started with the people doing the vaccinations, care home residents & staff, and frontline NHS staff, they are still doing them but then started over-80's in the community, other NHS staff, and frontline social care staff. Once the bulk of these people have been offered it, early in February they expect to start doing over 75's. 

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17 minutes ago, Lex said:

IMG_4510.jpg

Why aren’t we vaccinating at the same rate as England?

Assuming they are using UKG stats you are asking why Scotland hasn't vaccinated 50% of our population, as that's that the English numbers would mean for us. The answer we simply don't have the doses to do that.

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54 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

So say you have 20 care homes and 10 vaccination staff, 50-70 residents to be jagged in each, give each staff member one for the morning and one for the afternoon. Would be the same as having 10 staff in a vaccination centre doing morning and afternoon shift. Not really getting the perception of logistical issues around this. Slightly more inconvenient but not really a staggering undertaking surely?

70 residents in a morning or afternoon (3.5 hours) gives 3 minutes per jab. That sounds like barely enough time to get between rooms and change syringes. I’d expect some time taken to ensure that the right person is sitting there, check notes for allergies or other relevant factors ( likelihood of flipping out etc), then fill in forms and then change PPE and thoroughly clean hands and equipment. I’d guess you’re talking more like 10 mins per jab.

There will be a lot of homes with fewer than 50 residents as well.

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4 minutes ago, Lex said:

Can’t we do the care homes and other people too? That’s what England are doing after all. This is a ridiculous failure by the Scottish Government.

 

I would imagine the care homes left to do are the smallest and most remote therefore they are resource heavy trailing round with a freezer full of the shots to every care home on the islands is something that England won't have to tackle once we are over that I hope we see rapid growth as smaller local hubs are set up to deliver the vaccine. England appear to be doing the care homes on a much slower time frame meaning they have keep staff and resources local to the major hubs. 

Deaths are most likely to occur in a care home, you would imagine, therefore doing all then will mean the death rate falls and hopefully its on the key metrics used to decide on restrictions. 

If we don't reach 500k by the start of Feb then questions have to be asked but we seem to be motoring along at an okay speed.

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You can bet your last penny Lex and Glen Minter would be raging if Scotland had vaccinated care homes at 1/2 the rate of England.  

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13 minutes ago, Lex said:

 


Can’t we do the care homes and other people too? That’s what England are doing after all. This is a ridiculous failure by the Scottish Government.

 

You're a ridiculous failure.

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1 hour ago, Paco said:

Care homes are ‘almost done’ which will hopefully see resources opened up but that won’t help if GPs don’t have the vaccine!

In fact, there are an estimated 555k in Groups 1 & 2, expected to be done by the ‘start of February’. To me that’s Monday 1st Feb. We’ll need to see about 20k a day to get there. So that one is surely very doable.

The concerning one is Groups 3, 4 & 5. 880k in there, I think, to be done by the end of Feb. Even if we started today it’s 21k per day, in addition to the 20k or so a day needed to hit the first target.

It needs to rise and it needs to rise pretty quickly. In fairness to the SG their plans show an exponential growth in numbers starting next Monday. It’ll be needed!

I'm sure I read that they are aiming to to finish groups 1 & 2 by 7 Feb, although it keeps being said as the more vague "start of Feb". It's hard to see how they'll be then able to finish the next lot by just the end of Feb, can't see it happening. Though I presume they are going to start inviting people in all the groups 3, 4 & 5 to mass vaccinations as well as to local GP's. So far it's only staff that are attending 'mass' vaccinations and they'll need more of these available and quickly.

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The BBC news at lunch had some talk of the effects being seen by the end of February and then a return to tiers as they work their way through the various vulnerable groups until May.
Then a debate as to where to go next, possibly teachers and shop workers rather than by age.
The current problem is the NHS system has no knowledge of occupations of people.

You can see those on universal Credit being last if economics come into the younger groups.

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