superbigal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) Although I have been reporting the daily falls since 3rd January from 301.9 cases per 100K t I thought it was worth having a look at the patterns through October-December. From October 1st we were at 77.4 per 100K. This rose quickly and by October 8th we were at 127.7 with problems focussed in Glasgow and Lanarkshire. Politically in this week hospitality opening was restricted to 6am to 6pm, with extension to 10pm if outdoors. All Central belt Licensed premises were closed excluding takeaways. Outdoor contact sport stopped in these areas. Snooker halls etc. By the following week October 15th the cases were up to 153.1 which is higher than they are today. Lanarkshire itself had vaulted to very high levels. Politically mask wearing in communal areas was introduced. By October 22nd the rise had slowed down but we were at 165.9. This turns out to be the peak of this particular "wave" No sign of any slowdown in Lanarkshire. Politically the current temporary restrictions are extended till at least November 2nd By October 29th the rate had dropped to 150.1. Some progress in Lanarkshire Politically on October 29th the new local authority levels were announced. No authority were placed in Level 4. Central belt plus Dundee in Level 3. The rest excepting Highlands and Islands in level 2. By November 5th the rate was stable at 151.8 No real improvements in Lanarkshire & Glasgow. (This in my opinion is where the West should have been moved to level 4) Politically Masks were introduced in Schools for S4 to S6 pupils. Nationally Furlough suddenly extended to the End of March. By November 12th the rate was down about 5% to 144.5. What is clear however is Level 3 is having no real effect on the West coast where Renfrewshire, Dunbartonshire & Ayrshire also appear alongside Lanarkshire & Glasgow as real problematic areas. Politically Pfizer announces their 90% effectiveness. Angus, Fife & P&K are moved from level 2 to level 3. ( As an East coaster being in same level as Lanarkshire seems wrong) By November 19th the rate was down to 135.2. Still no effect in the West Politically The West, Stirling & West Lothian finally moved to Level 4, East Lothian and Midlothian granted a provisional date for moving down to level 2. This never happened. Plans of a Mega testing Lab in Scotland announced by Westminster By November 26th we had had a great week with the rate down to 113.7 Much improvement starting to show in Level 4 areeas. Politically East Lothians do a Swindon Town and get their move from level 2 changed to level 4. Xmas relaxation announced within period 23rd to 27th Dec with travel permitted and household mixing of up to 3 households or 6 adults. By December 3rd rate continues to drop to 100.9 as we flirt with being back to levels of October 3rd. This has been a 9 week cycle thus far. Level 4 clearly does work as the West drops quickly. Politically Pfizer is approved of use. By December 10th unfortunately we just cannot breach this 100 per 100K infections and the rate has started to rise again on a slow but daily basis to 106.9 Politically not a lot happening but vaccinations to start. It is clear however cases in the South East of England particularly in Kent are going through the roof. By December 17th the 3rd wave is underway (Although we do not really know it or why ?) as cases rise to 116.8 Politically East Lothian, Aberdeen & Aberdeenshire moved from level 2 to level 3 Scotgov start to get a little twitchy about not ripping the piss at Xmas time By December 24th cases starting to accelerate. Up to 137.5 (Very close to today) Areas that traditionally never had high rates appearing near top of charts. Politically It all kicks off from out of nowhere as the Kent Variant officially is identified. Xmas is tightened to 1 day only. All areas to enter level 4 on Boxing day. What concerns me at this point is all the statistics will not be published accurately as everyone heads of on a 2 week holiday without realising just how bad things will get in the next 2 weeks. Time to print daily numbers.. December 25th 130,0 & 26th 135.5 As diddly squat testing results. December 27th Here we go 151.7 as huge increases in Dundee & Renfrewshire start us off. December 28th 160.9 No other areas surfacing as yet. December 29th 194.1 A national 20% rise in 1 day as Dumfries & Galloway joins the party with a 40% rise December 30th 224.3 Another 15% single day rise. Acceleration taking effect in most places. Dumfries & Galloway doubles in 2 days. Renfrewshire surges through 300 mark December 31st 249.1 Another 12% single day rise. Kicking off in the Borders big time & Lanarkshire joins the 300 club. Happy New year January 1st 261.0 Probably not much testing as Glasgow joins the 300 club January 2nd 282.2 Renfrew & North Lanark through the 400 barrier. January 3rd We peak at 301.9 and the rest is well documented by my daily reports. Probably difficult to apportion blame to the Kent variant or Xmas mixing. But for me the latter with the former created a perfect short term storm. Edited January 31, 2021 by superbigal 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150 Devi will be upset. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I know it's Hancock and anything he says should be taken with more than a pinch of salt but this goes against a lot of the doom and gloom we've been fed recently, for which he's been amongst the worst. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said: I know it's Hancock and anything he says should be taken with more than a pinch of salt but this goes against a lot of the doom and gloom we've been fed recently, for which he's been amongst the worst. As I said earlier, the Tories will not allow lockdown/restrictions to last any longer than absolutely neccesary, 30th April/furlough is the end date. To paraphrase Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan "NS didn't like it, but she had to go along with it" What of course it doesn't say is we'll be in the middle of a great British foreign holiday exodus........ Edited January 31, 2021 by Burnieman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, Burnieman said: Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150 Devi will be upset. On the contrary, she'll be fucking delighted that she can point to a 5 day lockdown being implemented off the back of 1 case. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: On the contrary, she'll be fucking delighted that she can point to a 5 day lockdown being implemented off the back of 1 case. That's how she'll spin it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
super_carson Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150 Devi will be upset.And again this highlights the absolute folly of zero covid. What is the point in a harsh and long lockdown when you'll just lockdown an entire city for 5 days with just one case to maintain it.The likes of Sridhar are hoodwinking a lot.of people with the idea that it's the only way to get back to normal. Well, looking at Australia and Auckland last year, it's not really doing what she claims, is it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Things to remember 1. Devi doesn’t work for the Scottish or uk government 2. Leitch and co simply take the data they know, calculate how much x permitted activities cause y number of cases and therefore z number of hospitalisations. Give estimates of what wee packages of measures will have on the overall picture and for how longThey don’t concern themselves with the economy or social impacts .Thing is when they get interviewed they don’t say thatWhen asked how long will current restrictions need to last they say “estimate around 6months to get to sustained low levels where elemimation is possible “. They don’t add on at the end” but really the government will intervene some time between now and then and accept a higher number a tradeoff”So by listening to them you’re really only getting half the story 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, Burnieman said: Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150 Devi will be upset. 1 case 5 day lockdown the heads gone on vegemite and fosters must be epic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, Burnieman said: Meanwhile, in the land of zero Covid https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55877150 Devi will be upset. As others have said, she'll be rejoicing at the fact the state is dealing with this 'swiftly and harshly'. Of course, there is precisely nothing normal with the state being allowed to incarcerate the population on a whim and at a moments notice, nor is the constant cloud of this possibility hanging over your mind. While these places may be enjoying their summer freedoms, it only takes one slip, and they may face problems down the line with vaccine-only immunity in the population which we won't. It's true, we've been through a shit show, but we shouldn't have those same worries once mass vaccination is rolled out alongside immunity built up through natural infection. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 40 minutes ago, Burnieman said: As I said earlier, the Tories will not allow lockdown/restrictions to last any longer than absolutely neccesary, 30th April/furlough is the end date. To paraphrase Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan "NS didn't like it, but she had to go along with it" What of course it doesn't say is we'll be in the middle of a great British foreign holiday exodus........ Hancock has been using these weasel words to try and suggest just that, and when asked about summer holidays saying he has his booked in Cornwall. Nobody cares about fucking Cornwall, you sociopath. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Boris reacting to other countries introducing flight bans on February 3rd. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Can we get a predictor on the go about the inevitable months-long imprisonment which will happen in parts of Australia and New Zealand as autumn rolls into winter in a few months? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, Elixir said: Hancock has been using these weasel words to try and suggest just that, and when asked about summer holidays saying he has his booked in Cornwall. Nobody cares about fucking Cornwall, you sociopath. Cornwall is flavour of the month on the BBC. If the BBC had been running multiple series about the Craig Tara caravan park, you can bet that's where Hancock would be claiming he had his holidays booked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Boris reacting to other countries introducing flight bans on February 3rd. The Government and their advisers have flip flopped to endorse populist measures rather than 'follow the science' to try and help themselves in the future inquiry and reckoning to come. Edited January 31, 2021 by Elixir 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Quote On the Andrew Marr Show, Dr Susan Hopkins from Public Health England says the pressure on the NHS as a result of high numbers of Covid patients will continue until at least the end of March. She says improved treatments for the virus mean "people aren't dying as fast as they were" - this is "good news" but also means Covid patients spend longer in hospital. Hopkins adds that it's "a bit early to say" whether the decline in numbers of hospital patients is as a result of the effects of the vaccine kicking in. And even when those effects do kick in, she says any lifting of restrictions must be done "very slowly, very cautiously". She hopes this summer will be similar to last summer in the UK, where rules were far less strict than the current lockdown measures. But Hopkins warns against restrictions being relaxed too much as "we do not want to have another wave as we've had this winter". "Let's get the population vaccinated - that will have the biggest impact on reducing hospitalisations and reducing deaths." So another sanitised, soul destroying, wasted summer, then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Elixir said: So another sanitised, soul destroying, wasted summer, then. I'm sensing a sort of revisionist outlook on last summer as though it was some sort of utopian paradise. It was far from it. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David W Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Todd_is_God said: I'm sensing a sort of revisionist outlook on last summer as though it was some sort of utopian paradise. It was far from it. I'm booking in a game of fives for mid August as we speak. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubrey Maturin Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, David W said: I'm booking in a game of fives for mid August as we speak. I've booked a holiday just so as I can wait on it being cancelled to replicate the utopia of last summer. Ah the new normal of last summer, get that right in the sea. If our end game is a replica of last summer then stop the world I'm getting aff. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Shiting it over mext winter has started in the current winter then? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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