Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[madwullie]

2 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...with pandemics there is scope for emergency approvals and removing the ability to sue.

Definitely. There's no recourse to court if you're dead though. 

Edit: the broader point is about why they're not opening everything up based on a vaccine they're sure will work though 

Edit 2: would we really be happy at the ability to sue being removed? That's a dream for anti-vaxxers 

Edited January 28, 2021 by madwullie

[vikingTON]

3 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

I’ll have to make this my last post in the subject as I have a bloody Zoom training session for 3 bloody hours.

Nobody is saying that it’s not a real world application but as pointed out by the Israelis themselves in the article I linked to and as said in the briefing last night - whilst it looks very positive, they are initial findings which still need to be verified and peer-reviewed. Whist a good indicator, they will only to be used as such until these stages are done.  

This isn’t especially unusual as a way of scientific studies to be done, initial findings are normally subject to review and verification by more data. This is a part of the process and needs to be followed. 

For verified findings that show the vaccines work, we have the trial data. For 'real world' application, we have the Israel data (and the already demonstrable fact that over 80s are being admitted in fewer numbers because of Covid, in direct relationship to rollout). That is as authoritative as it gets. 

If we were letting 'process that must be followed' dictate our timetable then we'd still be three years away from even having a vaccine. We can in fact draw conclusions and make decisions in a much more rapid manner to deal with an ongoing crisis. Which we did, and so we have the answers that we need.

[Bairnardo]

6 minutes ago, madwullie said:

It's pretty well known that science, especially health and medicines, doesn't work on assumptions, no matter how absolutely definitely obvious the hypothesis is. Medical outcomes have to be proven by trial, real life applications and (peer reviewed) data. It's an extremely onerous process. 

If this isn't done, companies, governments, institutions are wide open to being sued, and people can die. 

This is why no-one is saying we will be able to do x, y and z by date a, b or c. There's been a number of times during this whole shitshow that specific dates have been given, or promises made, that have subsequently had to be rolled back - and this pissed people off, lost people money, lost people jobs. People lost their lives because of the over-egged optimism about what was going to be possible at Christmas. 

Just because we as (generally) laymen know that vaccines will work, until all the data has been gathered (no matter how obvious it is), no scientist is going to use a word like "will". Scientists know more about this than us, they are 99.9999% certain that things will go as predicted, but implementing plans because they know without proof just isn't the way medical trials work. 

It's the same reason doctors don't just chuck medicine they think might work at patients. The same reason why it can take 5+ years to get a cancer drug to market that will undoubtedly work and save lives. 

I think everyone knows this but they're just understandably frustrated that this has gone on for so long. 

 

So now we need to wait till a full set of medical data re the vaccines is gatherd and analysed before opening back up, just in case it transpires someone thinks they didn't get what was advertised and decides to sue the government, rather than using criteria like hospital occupancy? Sorry but given we are pumping this vaccine into millions of people as we speak, I think the horse has bolted on this one

[vikingTON]

12 minutes ago, madwullie said:

It's pretty well known that science, especially health and medicines, doesn't work on assumptions, no matter how absolutely definitely obvious the hypothesis is. Medical outcomes have to be proven by trial, real life applications and (peer reviewed) data. It's an extremely onerous process. 

If this isn't done, companies, governments, institutions are wide open to being sued, and people can die. 

This is why no-one is saying we will be able to do x, y and z by date a, b or c. There's been a number of times during this whole shitshow that specific dates have been given, or promises made, that have subsequently had to be rolled back - and this pissed people off, lost people money, lost people jobs. People lost their lives because of the over-egged optimism about what was going to be possible at Christmas. 

Just because we as (generally) laymen know that vaccines will work, until all the data has been gathered (no matter how obvious it is), no scientist is going to use a word like "will". Scientists know more about this than us, they are 99.9999% certain that things will go as predicted, but implementing plans because they know without proof just isn't the way medical trials work. 

It's the same reason doctors don't just chuck medicine they think might work at patients. The same reason why it can take 5+ years to get a cancer drug to market that will undoubtedly work and save lives. 

I think everyone knows this but they're just understandably frustrated that this has gone on for so long. 

 

1) This 'that's the way The Science works' argument has already been discarded, to produce not just one but a stack of clearly effective vaccines much faster than any vaccine previously developed in human history.

2) You're once again using the 'specific dates' straw man when the actual demand is 'objective criteria'. If the vaccine proves less effective then it simply takes longer to get to that point; if it proves more effective then restrictions are binned sooner. There is nothing even remotely anti-scientific about this: in fact, by linking cause and effect, it is in fact applying science to solve the policy debate. Rather than leaving it to assorted politicians and Clownshoes Leitch to pull politically convenient measures out of a tombola in a press conference, which does nothing of the sort.

Edited January 28, 2021 by vikingTON

[craigkillie]

40 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

Did we get an up to date figure on vaccinations today?

There was an IT issue today so no figures - they'll be bundled into tomorrow's data.

[101]

Just now, craigkillie said:

There was an IT issue today so no figures - they'll be bundled into tomorrow's data.

Spreadsheet is fucked 

[madwullie]

8 minutes ago, virginton said:

1) This 'that's the way The Science works' argument has already been discarded, to produce not just one but a stack of clearly effective vaccines much faster than any vaccine previously developed in human history.

2) You're once again using the 'specific dates' straw man when the actual demand is 'objective criteria'. If the vaccine proves less effective then it simply takes longer to get to that point; if it proves more effective then restrictions are binned sooner. There is nothing even remotely anti-scientific about this: in fact, by linking cause and effect, it is in fact applying science to solve the policy debate. Rather than leaving it to assorted politicians and Clownshoes Leitch to pull politically convenient measures out of a tombola in a press conference, which does nothing of the sort.

In regard to one, they still followed (are following) the same processes that other drugs would go through to get to market in terms of trials. Nothing was missed out - the scientific process for drugs is still being followed. 

I don't disagree about criteria - people here are demanding rough dates / timescales etc, so it's not really my strawman. 

I think they should give an indication of what the criteria are to start opening up, or at least say why they won't be particularly specific. 

[Detournement]

18 minutes ago, madwullie said:

 

Edit 2: would we really be happy at the ability to sue being removed? That's a dream for anti-vaxxers 

UK citizens can't sue vaccine manufacturers. 

[madwullie]

16 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

So now we need to wait till a full set of medical data re the vaccines is gatherd and analysed before opening back up, just in case it transpires someone thinks they didn't get what was advertised and decides to sue the government, rather than using criteria like hospital occupancy? Sorry but given we are pumping this vaccine into millions of people as we speak, I think the horse has bolted on this one

I didn't say that. I said there are processes they need to follow. Israel is basically being used as a massive real life trial (in fact was that not a condition of them getting such a large stock of the vaccine in the first place. 

Has anyone reported / heard what Israel are saying about restrictions / opening up, given they're miles ahead of us in the process. That might be quite enlightening as to what we can expect. 

[madwullie]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

UK citizens can't sue vaccine manufacturers. 

Is that the new law that was put in place? 

I wish I hadn't mentioned suing - it wasn't really the point of my post - more that there are actual consequences for fucking up mass produced medicines. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by madwullie

[Burnieman]

4 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Has anyone reported / heard what Israel are saying about restrictions / opening up, given they're miles ahead of us in the process. That might be quite enlightening as to what we can expect. 

They're still in the middle of a third/fourth wave with thousand of daily cases.

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Is that the new law that was put in place? 

I wish I hadn't mentioned suing - it wasn't really the point of my post - more that there are actual consequences for fucking up mass produced medicines. 

It's part of the purchase agreements that the vaccine companies have no liability.

[madwullie]

5 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

They're still in the middle of a third/fourth wave with thousand of daily cases.

Yeah I've just looked it up. Restrictions continue, they're talking about putting more in place, and the health ministry says that vaccines won't be enough. They also seem to be quite worried about the UK variant. 

Some people seem to be relaxing a bit in terms of masking in small groups, but still won't go out for meals and stuff. 

Can't see anything about future plans or timescales. They do seem to be looking at numbers in hospital as the trigger though 

That's only from a quick glance at the wsj and the times of Israel. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by madwullie

[Michael W]

Here's the data that the RKI in Germany assessed on the Oxfkrd/AZ vaccine. You don't need to speak German to work out what it says.

Two people over 65 got it - one in the control group and one who received the vaccine. Basically due to the small sample size, the data is useless to them. 

[Wee Willie]

52 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

So we all know that Covid is worse than Influenza, and we're at a particularly bad point (but it's gradually getting better), but Influenza still takes thousands of lives a year in the UK.

At what point, with vaccinations ongoing and better treatments coming on-stream, do we accept that we need to live with Covid and remove restrictions?

Yes people will continue to get Covid, yes people will die from Covid, but that's not going to go away.

Like has been mentioned, we're being subject to a constant stream of doom and fear from politicians and media, probably to keep us all in line.  This in itself doesn't come without cost.

Have ye any words of comfort for me? I'll be 78 years auld next week, diabetic since 2008 and smoked like a lum until 2013.

[superbigal]

22 hours ago, superbigal said:

 

Todays Headlines:    Fife joins Edinburgh City in the new Sub 100 club.  Aberdeenshire also joins.   Renfrewshire drops 5 places in the table of doom.

Now accessed the other home nations for the cases per 100K latest and will document their daily progress.   These are a little behind the Scottish cases.  England  403.9 to 386.6 down 4.28%,   Wales  234.1 to 219.8 down 6.11% , Northern Ireland   297.0 to 284.1 down 4.34%,  all 3 dropping and possibly a little faster than us. They have some catching up to do though.

For interest of the bigger European countries Portugal 846 having a torrid time and this may go over 1,000,  Spain 550 , Czech 443 are the big hitters.  

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan    

From 18th to 24th January we were down to 167.3

Todays figure for 19th Jan to 25th Jan is  159.4     Another huge single Day drop of 4.72%. Infections have dropped every day (now TWENTY ONE days in a row) since the aforementioned peak.  Total drop is now 47.20% .   We should crash through a 50% drop in cases in next couple of days.

North Lanarkshire is dragging everyone down.  They stand with nearly 30% more infections than the council in 3rd place.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

North Lanarkshire  278.9 to 278.6   For the 3rd day in a row sad to report the lack of improvement.  Apparently Airdrie is the hotspot. Maybe more local enforcement needed ?

Glasgow City  255.4 to 247.5

South Lanarkshire    227.4 to 216.2  

West Dunbartonshire   213.7 to 212.5 

East Ayrshire   222.1 to 210.6

North Ayrshire 219.7 to 210.0

Renfrewshire 231.2 to 207.7   Great 10% single day drop and falls 5 places down the charts.

East Dunbartonshire  212.6 to 200.7

Clackmannanshire 194.0 to 184.3

Angus  172.1 to 176.4    The Brechin Pork processing plant !!!! and the only council area with sustained rises  at the moment.

Dumfries & Galloway  184.1to 172.6  Langholm & Eskdale now over 1256 Cases per 100K and Scotland's No 1 by a country mile .  They are doing blanket testing here though.

Falkirk  196.4 to 169.7  Great 13.6% single day drop 

East Renfrewshire  165.4 to 166.4

South Ayrshire   158.1 to 156.3     

Inverclyde  174.8 to 153.0   Huge drops of around 25% over only 2 days.

Stirling  129.5 to 136.9

Dundee City  152.0 to 131.9   Dundee another 13%  single day drop.  Only Charleston(422) exceeding 240 cases per 100K.  Overtakes Aberdeen

Aberdeen City   140.4 to 136.0 Actually includes  Danestone @ 959 cases per 100K the 2nd worse neighbourhood in Scotland.

West Lothian 133.3 to 122.9

Moray   120.0 to 114.8

Scottish  Borders  120.3 to 114.3    

Perth & Kinross  132.9 to 113.2  Excellent near 15% drop and huge areas of map Covid Free

Midlothian  114.6 to 107.1

Aberdeenshire 105.7 to 99.5  Another area joins the sub 100 club

City Of Edinburgh   98.5 to 95.4

Fife  107.3 to 95.0  A huge 11.5% drop takes Fife below the magic 100 marker

Highlands  79.7 to 77.2   Invergordon still Stubborn @ 793

Argyll & Bute  54.7 to 73.4

East Lothian  85.0 to 72.8   Astonishing +14% drop from a low level

Western Isles    41.2 to 41.2

Orkney Island  26.9 to 31.4

 Shetland Islands  43.6 to 21.8

 

 

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Wee Willie said:

Have ye any words of comfort for me? I'll be 78 years auld next week, diabetic since 2008 and smoked like a lum until 2013.

Aye you are a year past the Scottish male life expectancy so it's all gravy from here. 

Break out the snout, the whiskey and get onto adult work. You are playing with house money. 

[dirty dingus]

9 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Aye you are a year past the Scottish male life expectancy so it's all gravy from here. 

Break out the snout, the whiskey and get onto adult work. You are playing with house money. 

[Aladdin]

44 minutes ago, virginton said:

2) You're once again using the 'specific dates' straw man when the actual demand is 'objective criteria'. If the vaccine proves less effective then it simply takes longer to get to that point; if it proves more effective then restrictions are binned sooner. There is nothing even remotely anti-scientific about this: in fact, by linking cause and effect, it is in fact applying science to solve the policy debate. Rather than leaving it to assorted politicians and Clownshoes Leitch to pull politically convenient measures out of a tombola in a press conference, which does nothing of the sort.

This is what I want.  I dont want specific dates or vaccination numbers in terms of when restrictions are relaxed, I want measures to be used such as hospital or ICU admissions.  When they are at X level, Y restrictions will be removed and so on.  An objective roadmap out of this.

When we get there is dependent on supply chains, vaccination rates, mutations and all the pish people have been arguing about but if admissions reach the levels they did last summer and we are still hearing about major restrictions being in place just in case due to the potential new Nepalese super strain that doesnt actually exist but could be a thing, then thats unacceptable.

As many people have said, we have thousands of flu deaths and hospital admissions each year.  The Covid facts website helpfully sets out why the IFR is worse than the flu, but the same principles regarding a judgement call apply.

[Detournement]

I love criticising Crankie as much as anyone but I think that sitting tight for January and February is the correct thing to do with the exit plan starting in March.