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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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16 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Maybe youre right, I dont know, Im really genuinely not ever one for conspiracy theories or anything, its just the change in estimates from the Scot Gov, the personal thing with the mrs getting only about 60% of what they were told to expect. If it was the case perhaps they are sitting on it incase it caused civil unrest that would spike cases? There’s just something not right. 

I think you’re really grasping at straws. Scot Gov could reveal one of the biggest scandals in recent history and undoubtedly hugely swing support in favour of independence but would choose not to, incase people got too angry at UK Gov? Really don’t see it.

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What we do know 100% is that a number of people will still get ill from covid, and some of those will die.
It's slightly concerning that there appears to be a viewpoint forming that we need to accept restrictions im some form until the number of hospitalisations and deaths from it hits zero.

I’m not really seeing that viewpoint tbf. I don’t think there is anyone on here suggesting that (unless you mean Pep...)
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What we do know 100% is that a number of people will still get ill from covid, and some of those will die.
It's slightly concerning that there appears to be a viewpoint forming that we need to accept restrictions im some form until the number of hospitalisations and deaths from it hits zero.
I never said zero I said an acceptable level. That is yet to be defined by any nation. As for the VT mewl, that's nonsense from start to finish. It will either work or it won't and despite his protests only time WILL tell it's a waiting game until the serious illness and deaths do decrease to the "acceptable" level. Anyone who thinks measures will be relaxed before admissions and deaths decrease to the levels required is kidding themselves on as it's the one and only measure that will prove the vaccination programmes effectiveness. It's his incessant totally baseless stating of his opinion as fact that has seen me pap him on ignore for the last couple of weeks. It's been good not to see his bleatings bar requotes.
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Isn't the vulnerable list supposed to comprise something like 95% of likely hospitalisations? If the vaccine is effictive at preventing serious illness as it seems to be from the trial data, covid will no longer overwhelm the health system and that particular goal will be met. At that point, restrictions can no longer justified and they should remain only if something goes horribly wrong somewhere. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

As for the VT mewl, that's nonsense from start to finish. It will either work or it won't and despite his protests only time WILL tell it's a waiting game until the serious illness and deaths do decrease to the "acceptable" level.

^^^ idiot found

You'd be as well saying that the sun will either rise tomorrow morning or it won't, but we just don't know which outcome is going to happen*!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*

Spoiler

We do though

.

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1 hour ago, btb said:

I see Dominic Raab is today saying that the UK's focus on giving all UK adults a first dose by September means some folk might miss getting their second jab within 12 weeks.

Hopefully by the start of March another few vaccines will be approved that are single dose. That may help alleviate Rabb’s scenario 

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10 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Zero restrictions automatically being set after an arbitrary number of vaccinations, ignoring hospitalisations, is as daft as waiting for zero covid imo.

I don't think you know what 'arbitrary' means tbh.

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Isn't the vulnerable list supposed to comprise something like 95% of likely hospitalisations? If the vaccine is effictive at preventing serious illness as it seems to be from the trial data, covid will no longer overwhelm the health system and that particular goal will be met. At that point, restrictions can no longer justified and they should remain only if something goes horribly wrong somewhere. 
 
Yes that's the plan but only time will tell if it pans out as hoped. Hospitalization numbers are the only guide.
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57 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

The english NHS apparently vaccinating at a rate of 140 per minute. 
Is there anything about this that makes people think that theres something the Scottish Government arent telling us about our supplies? Freeman’s backpedal on the number for the end of january? I hate myself for thinking this but is there any chance supplies have been diverted from Scotland to elsewhere in the UK? Hopefully theres someone a wee bit more aware who can shed some light on it? My mrs practice will only be able to vaccinate 60% of the people they expected to be able for the January targets etc. 
Is it either, the Scottish plans are shite? The vaccine has been diverted? Or a mix of both? 

If supply was being diverted elsewhere, you would never hear the end of it. It’s more likely to be good old Scottish incompetence.

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31 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:


I’m not really seeing that viewpoint tbf. I don’t think there is anyone on here suggesting that (unless you mean Pep...)

 

24 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

I never said zero I said an acceptable level. That is yet to be defined by any nation. As for the VT mewl, that's nonsense from start to finish. It will either work or it won't and despite his protests only time WILL tell it's a waiting game until the serious illness and deaths do decrease to the "acceptable" level. Anyone who thinks measures will be relaxed before admissions and deaths decrease to the levels required is kidding themselves on as it's the one and only measure that will prove the vaccination programmes effectiveness. It's his incessant totally baseless stating of his opinion as fact that has seen me pap him on ignore for the last couple of weeks. It's been good not to see his bleatings bar requotes.

Sorry I should have specified I didn't mean on here.

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2 hours ago, btb said:

I see Dominic Raab is today saying that the UK's focus on giving all UK adults a first dose by September means some folk might miss getting their second jab within 12 weeks.

From what I'm reading he wasn't relating the two, he just wouldn't give a guarantee that everyone would get their second jab before 12 weeks as it is dependent on supply.

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2 hours ago, Billy Jean King said:

I don't know how many times it needs to be repeated but vaccination numbers have no direct correlation to relaxing restrictions. The only thing that will do that is a large reduction in hospital admissions and deaths sustained to a level deemed acceptable.

The narrative up to now is that the vaccine will result in this but we simply don't know, only time will tell. The only thing we can do is continue vaccination and wait to see the actual results on hospital numbers and deaths.

It's why I posted that for the theory to be correct we really need to see sustained reductions in these areas but those working in the NHS who post on here are pointing out that we are still several weeks away from those numbers even peaking so it's then a case of waiting to see just how quickly they do decline after the peak as that and that alone is going to control the narrative when it comes to relaxing measures.

Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up  with winter pressures each year

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1 hour ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

The english NHS apparently vaccinating at a rate of 140 per minute. 
Is there anything about this that makes people think that theres something the Scottish Government arent telling us about our supplies? Freeman’s backpedal on the number for the end of january? I hate myself for thinking this but is there any chance supplies have been diverted from Scotland to elsewhere in the UK? Hopefully theres someone a wee bit more aware who can shed some light on it? My mrs practice will only be able to vaccinate 60% of the people they expected to be able for the January targets etc. 
Is it either, the Scottish plans are shite? The vaccine has been diverted? Or a mix of both? 

Would've made more sense to say 200,000 per day.

Did the calculation in my head, being good at mental arithmetic is indicative of having a large aubergine. :whistle

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For those that appear to disagree with the strategy that we need to wait and see hospital admissions and deaths falling to whatever is deemed "acceptable " to start releasing measures, what indicator of effectiveness do you think we should be using to judge when to start as I can'treallysee any other indicator of effectiveness ?

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

From what I'm reading he wasn't relating the two, he just wouldn't give a guarantee that everyone would get their second jab before 12 weeks as it is dependent on supply.

....which means they might miss it.

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23 hours ago, superbigal said:

 

Daily review. Overall cases per 100K  for 7 days  peaked  at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan

From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8

Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5   Another single Day drop of 4.42%  and a drop from the peak of 26.30%   If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the  drops.  I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best.   Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet.

NB The UK figure for same dates is 558.2 per 100K or about 2.5 times higher than Scotland.

Glasgow City   351.1 to 338.3  Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ?

North Lanarkshire  345.1 to 323.7

Inverclyde  347.0 to 309.8    Over 10% down and of the top spot

Renfrewshire   304.9 to 302.6

Dumfries & Galloway  283.5 to 285.5  Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000

North Ayrshire  282.0 to 281.3

East Dunbartonshire   289.0 to 272.5

East Ayrshire  264.7 to 270.5

South Lanarkshire  266.7 to 262.1

West Dunbartonshire    267.6 to 253.0

Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5

Dundee City   262.5 to 242.4

Aberdeen City  245.3 to 241.0

Falkirk   224.4 to 225.6

South Ayrshire   222.0 to 225.6

Scottish  Borders   189.6 to 185.3

Fife   193.5 to 180.4

Perth & Kinross  217.2 to 178.3  Down 17.91%

East Renfrewshire  205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81%

Angus  181.6 to 167.8

Highlands  178.9 to 163.3  Invergordon over 1000

Aberdeenshire   167.7 to 148.9  Down 11.28%

Stirling  131.6 to 148.6

West Lothian  156.2 to 144.2

City Of Edinburgh   159.3 to 144.0  Down 10%

Moray    110.6 to 108.5

Midlothian  115.7 to 104.9

East Lothian    99.0 to 100.8

Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 

Shetland Islands  82.9 to 82.9

Argyll & Bute    81.5 to 82.7

Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0

Edited by superbigal
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Vaccinations will have a direct correlation as will the weather on restrictions being eased. Perhaps the weather is more important as it’s the main cause of hospitals clogging up  with winter pressures each year
Your right to a point but it still boils down to the same conclusion, we MUST see that happening before we can relax measures. If we are waiting on seasonality reduction it will be May or June at the earliest. I'd be hopeful that vaccination will have numbers reduced sufficiently before that.
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55 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

According to the plan provided last week Scotland has the stock to be going faster, but are choosing to focus on getting care homes done first.

I don't really agree that is the right approach, but they've gone for it, and are almost finished with the care homes.

Once they start the mass rollout proper we'll have a better idea of who is more efficient.

 

The lady from Nhs Grampian let the cat out the bag earlier that the mass vaccination centre will be the game changer. Not due to open until sometime in February yet another tranche go live down south tomorrow. Can’t help but think planning was a bit slower in Scotland. Will let the numbers do the talking though 

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Daily review. Overall cases per 100K  for 7 days  peaked  at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan
From 7th to 13th January we are at 232.8
Todays figure is for 8th Jan to14th Jan is 222.5   Another single Day drop of 4.42%  and a drop from the peak of 26.30%   If the R is 1.4 then I was the 1st man on Mars. Daily movement for all councils. Just look at all the  drops.  I really think with this progress the better behaving Eastern side of the country should stand a chance of going back in the tier system when they review. Clearly the usual suspects need left in Tier 4 at best.   Stranraer looks like it needs eradicated from the planet.
Glasgow City   351.1 to 338.3  Regains it's usual top spot. Why does it perform so badly compared to Edinburgh ?
North Lanarkshire  345.1 to 323.7
Inverclyde  347.0 to 309.8    Over 10% down and of the top spot
Renfrewshire   304.9 to 302.6
Dumfries & Galloway  283.5 to 285.5  Stranraer West & Stranraer South both over 1000
North Ayrshire  282.0 to 281.3
East Dunbartonshire   289.0 to 272.5
East Ayrshire  264.7 to 270.5
South Lanarkshire  266.7 to 262.1
West Dunbartonshire    267.6 to 253.0
Clackmannanshire 246.4 to 242.5
Dundee City   262.5 to 242.4
Aberdeen City  245.3 to 241.0
Falkirk   224.4 to 225.6
South Ayrshire   222.0 to 225.6
Scottish  Borders   189.6 to 185.3
Fife   193.5 to 180.4
Perth & Kinross  217.2 to 178.3  Down 17.91%
East Renfrewshire  205.2 to 174.8 Down 14.81%
Angus  181.6 to 167.8
Highlands  178.9 to 163.3  Invergordon over 1000
Aberdeenshire   167.7 to 148.9  Down 11.28%
Stirling  131.6 to 148.6
West Lothian  156.2 to 144.2
City Of Edinburgh   159.3 to 144.0  Down 10%
Moray    110.6 to 108.5
Midlothian  115.7 to 104.9
East Lothian    99.0 to 100.8
Western Isles 44.9 to 97.3 
Shetland Islands  82.9 to 82.9
Argyll & Bute    81.5 to 82.7
Orkney Island 18.0 to 18.0
Are you going to start doing similar for hospital admissions, ICU numbers etc as those are a far better indicator to relaxing measures than new cases. Test positivity levels will have very little bearing while the pressure continues to grow on the NHS.
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