Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Steven W]

1 hour ago, Honest Saints Fan said:

Have we not mostly focused on care homes and staff first which take more time to administer? We've done 80% of residents and 55% of care home staff. I can't remember the stats for down south but it was definitely less.

This is what I was hoping. I had heard anecdotadly that was the case in Scotland. 

So we should see that Scottish line really lift off before too long (We'd fkn better!)

[s_dog]

 

11 hours ago, WATTOO said:

This is my biggest fear, there seems to be a growing narrative about international travel spreading the virus  and causing lockdowns and it basically being the root of all evil.

Having said that, I'm sure there will be major pushback from the aviation, tourism and hospitality sectors soon enough.

I think if we can get to the summer with restrictions on travel being our main worry, we'll be doing well. But then I'm feeling hugely pessimistic about it all right now.

 

1 hour ago, Honest Saints Fan said:

Have we not mostly focused on care homes and staff first which take more time to administer? We've done 80% of residents and 55% of care home staff. I can't remember the stats for down south but it was definitely less.

We are definitely falling behind in our numbers, but it is definitely at least partly due to our focus on care homes (and staff) which will take much longer than any other vaccinations. In comparison to those figures of 80/55%, England have done something like just over 20% and 3% (probably out of date now). Also, in England they are asking some over 80's to travel to large vaccination hubs, whereas in Scotland they thought sending lots of the most vulnerable people to get vaccinated at hubs with lots of other people maybe isn't the best idea, so they're doing them via GP practices. That's why they've done so many over 80's in the community in England, while in Scotland the numbers are a good deal lower. There's probably an argument for both ways. Northern Ireland are doing better than anyone, no idea what they are doing compared to anyone else though?

Also as Paco posted earlier, there's some news stories in England now about there being a significant rise in care home infections (and talk of sending elderly from hospitals without needing a test, instead just a period of self-isolation), with them defending it because care homes are so time consuming to vaccinate. I'm heartened by the fact the albeit few over 80's I know, have all either had their vaccination or been contacted to arrange it within the next couple of weeks. Surprised to hear PWL saying their mid-70s parents have already been contacted though, but that's obviously great news. Some areas will do it quicker than others, I saw yesterday that NHS Fife said they had completed the first round of jags in all their care homes.
 

35 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Any word on whether we can trust the Scot govt on being asked to withdraw that document yet? Has it been verified by an acceptable source? ie Toby Young, the fat emperor? 

Is he still posting, I read that he's deleted his old tweets after he was reprimanded & the Telegraph told to print a correction for one of his articles about people who've had the cold being immune to Covid-19 and how herd immunity had probably been reached in London (in July). Oh wait, no he's saying he's deleted them all because he's worried about "Twitter's increasing intolerance of people who challenge liberal orthodoxies". Nothing to do with him being wrong.
 

Edited January 15, 2021 by s_dog

[Steven W]

8 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I don't agree we're treating it like flu at all to be fair. I think it'll be exceptionally hard if not impossible to eradicate it entirely, but she's overlooking that there is actually an exit strategy to this. In fact, the vaccination strategy is the only one that might ever actually lead to zero covid. 

Ultimately it would be great ti get to the stage where we can eradicate it, but vaccine development might take a while to get there, if indeed it does. We have a great chance to totally take the sting out of it at the moment, though. 

In fairness to P&B's arch rival Devi Sridhar, at least she's talking about a long term gameplan. Heard nothing on that front from SG or UKG

[s_dog]

I agree re Sridhar talking about a long term plan. She is not overlooking the vaccinations strategy, it will obviously help but she doesn't think that is an exit strategy (and there are others saying similar even if they disagree with Sridhar's zero-covid aim).

[G51]

 

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

3 minutes ago, G51 said:

 

 

This is one of the dangers of people listening to people who aren't qualified expressing wishful thinking and believing it over actual experts due to wishful thinking.

In the most surprising news of the year so far one of the two Brazil variants has been found in the UK today.  Who could have predicted allowing thousands of people to fly here from Brazil would cause this eh.

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, G51 said:

 

 

The new variant is only more dangerous when the pubs are open.

No pubs and it just stays in and watches the telly.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

27 minutes ago, Honest Saints Fan said:

 

 

I would imagine that's going to put a lot of insurers out of business

[G51]

1 minute ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

This is one of the dangers of people listening to people who aren't qualified expressing wishful thinking and believing it over actual experts due to wishful thinking.

In the most surprising news of the year so far one of the two Brazil variants has been found in the UK today.  Who could have predicted allowing thousands of people to fly here from Brazil would cause this eh.

What is one of the dangers?

That guys a health economist, he's not some diddy making things up.

The new strain may well be more transmissible, but talk of up to 70% more transmissible seems to be nonsense now that R is cratering in London and the South East.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, G51 said:

What is one of the dangers?

That guys a health economist, he's not some diddy making things up.

The new strain may well be more transmissible, but talk of up to 70% more transmissible seems to be nonsense now that R is cratering in London and the South East.

I know what he is. That means he's not qualified to question a virologist or epidemiologist, yet here he is doing exactly that and you retweeting it.  That's what I mean by one of the dangers.

What qualifies you or him to question how transmissable it is, given the actual experts who have studied it produced this figure?  You realise London and SE has been under lockdown, their third and second in three months, for ages now?

[realmadrid]

The cases in Brazil are going through the roof and its summer there, surely that puts and end to the seasonal aspect of it all.

From the news last night most of the people there have also just given up on any form or restrictions except for masks. 

[Bairnardo]

I know what he is. That means he's not qualified to question a virologist or epidemiologist, yet here he is doing exactly that and you retweeting it.  That's what I mean by one of the dangers.
What qualifies you or him to question how transmissable it is, given the actual experts who have studied it produced this figure?  You realise London and SE has been under lockdown, their third and second in three months, for ages now?

You are a fucking idiot

[Billy Jean King]

This is one of the dangers of people listening to people who aren't qualified expressing wishful thinking and believing it over actual experts due to wishful thinking.
In the most surprising news of the year so far one of the two Brazil variants has been found in the UK today.  Who could have predicted allowing thousands of people to fly here from Brazil would cause this eh.

Yet Shapps said just hours before he "didn't think" it had been detected in the UK when trumpeting his Brazil connections travel ban !!!

It's sheer basic incompetence like this that has lead us to where we are today. Yet another dither and delay leading to the stable being tied with string long after the horse has bolted.

[G51]

3 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

I know what he is. That means he's not qualified to question a virologist or epidemiologist, yet here he is doing exactly that and you retweeting it.  That's what I mean by one of the dangers.

What qualifies you or him to question how transmissable it is, given the actual experts who have studied it produced this figure?  You realise London and SE has been under lockdown, their third and second in three months, for ages now?

I think it's perfectly reasonable for a statistician to review and scrutinise the data and say "Something doesn't add up here". It's then for a virologist or epidemiologist to explain that.

I don't think there's much doubt that the new strain is more transmissible (the proof is that it continues to make up a greater percentage of cases) but 70% transmissible is clearly wrong, otherwise the lockdowns wouldn't be working. If London's R rate is currently sitting at 0.61, how is it possible for this new strain to add up to 0.7 on the R rate (which is what was originally claimed)?

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Yet Shapps said just hours before he "didn't think" it had been detected in the UK when trumpeting his Brazil connections travel ban !!!

It's sheer basic incompetence like this that has lead us to where we are today. Yet another dither and delay leading to the stable being tied with string long after the horse has bolted.

I don't think so actually.  I think they aren't that stupid but are happy for people to think its incompetence.

If you look at their actions all the way through this they have done this, they have chosen courses of action that have caused increased spread and cases to increase. 

This is because they are pursuing a path of herd immunity, so I would imagine the plan was keep the planes flying for a few days make sure we get that strain too then stop them and go 'awww we were just too late, again, can you believe how unlucky we are?'

Its the same with everything with Tories. People make the mistake of believing they are decent people who are just incompetent or have different ideas about how to go about things. They aren't decent people, they are absolute monsters, and when you look at it like that their actions in every area make much more sense.

[Todd_is_God]

56 minutes ago, Rugster said:

You should put that in your signature. 

 

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

4 minutes ago, G51 said:

I think it's perfectly reasonable for a statistician to review and scrutinise the data and say "Something doesn't add up here". It's then for a virologist or epidemiologist to explain that.

I don't think there's much doubt that the new strain is more transmissible (the proof is that it continues to make up a greater percentage of cases) but 70% transmissible is clearly wrong, otherwise the lockdowns wouldn't be working. If London's R rate is currently sitting at 0.61, how is it possible for this new strain to add up to 0.7 on the R rate (which is what was originally claimed)?

 

Again what qualifications do you have to say the published R rate is clearly wrong?  This is what's wrong with society, we've had enough of experts etc.  You or he are laymen spouting off through wishful thinking.

[Alert Mongoose]

17 minutes ago, Carnoustie Young Guvnor said:

I would imagine that's going to put a lot of insurers out of business

Which is much more just outcome than those businesses who would have went under had they not been compensated for a service they paid for. 

[craigkillie]

An R number is a numerical calculation based on interpreting the existing data, therefore a statistician is literally the best qualified person to comment on it.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

2 minutes ago, Alert Mongoose said:

Which is much more just outcome than those businesses who would have went under had they not been compensated for a service they paid for. 

That's true, though not a great outcome anyway, and what businesses will have to pay in future for the same insurance will be eye-watering.