Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Steven W]

8 minutes ago, superbigal said:

31 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

“Recently released data from Pfizer suggests that the efficacy might only be 50-60% after the first dose – which is quite low.
  “The trial data shows that the maximum protection of (over) 90% is only achieved after the second dose.

That is only at the point efficacy starts too kick in. The reports suoposedly say that at the time the second jag takes effect. Say 6 weeks from original jag. The 1st jag efficacy has climbed from 50% to 91% anyway.

Which is 50% to 91% better than zero.

It surely stands to reason that, for instance, Margaret Keenan has more immunity at the minute than any other 90 year olds still waiting on their first dose

[Bairnardo]

3 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

For every x amount of infections y people get into hospital and z die.

It depends on age groups and the care they get but if infections rise then so does everything else. Which is why unless we have an amazing test, track and trace system we need lockdowns.
Either that or hospitals get overrun and the number of people seriously ill and dying will rise. There's only a limited amount of icu beds and staff.
Its also incredibly selfish to think that rising infections are ok even if you're in a relatively safe group you can still pass it on.

Well no, you are crediting one part of the mutation without having any idea about the others, i.e you are accounting increased transmission with no idea how severity is effected. SO aye, its way to simplistic to apply a ratio and scale it up

[dirty dingus]

1 minute ago, Steven W said:

Which is 50% to 91% better than zero.

It surely stands to reason that, for instance, Margaret Keenan has more immunity at the minute than any other 90 year olds still waiting on their first dose

The guy above is saying with only 1 shot the antibodies can  die out quickly so would be pointless giving just one jag.

[ayrmad]

1 hour ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

I know this isn’t what you’re saying, but if this was a conspiracy theory that it’s being used to hide the shambolic brexit we are walking into then it wouldn’t make sense for Sturgeon to jump on the bandwagon. She is absolutely desperate to highlight the terrible job they’ve done as much as possible, rather than let it be quietly ignored in favour of the virus.

I've no doubt it's genuine, I just feel that it might be an opportune time for Boris to be overly cautious, Sturgeon is naturally more cautious and thus easy to carry along. 

[superbigal]

I'm sure if that's the case some science guy(not Tony Blair) will be along shotly to tell us not to bother with the 2nd jab.

There have been on news channels this morning.
David Salisbury who was in charge of immunisation at the doh until 2013

They are just recommending delaying the 2nd jag not stopping.

[Steven W]

4 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

The guy above is saying with only 1 shot the antibodies can  die out quickly so would be pointless giving just one jag.

I think he probably wrote that at the same time as me.

Made sense to me, but ultimately I'm no expert.

A professor on the telly there just now suggesting it would be too risky without the proper analysis.

[dirty dingus]

2 minutes ago, Steven W said:

I think he probably wrote that at the same time as me.

Made sense to me, but ultimately I'm no expert.

A professor on the telly there just now suggesting it would be too risky without the proper analysis.

I suppose it would be down to how long the antibodies last. If it was 3-4 month it would make sense to give the majority one shot right away then go back to the start, it would still mean the less risky catagories still having to wait the same time but would save a few oldies along the way

[dirty dingus]

1 minute ago, dirty dingus said:

I suppose it would be down to how long the antibodies last. If it was 3-4 month it would make sense to give the majority one shot right away then go back to the start, it would still mean the less risky catagories still having to wait the same time but would save a few oldies along the way

 

6 minutes ago, superbigal said:

There have been on news channels this morning.
David Salisbury who was in charge of immunisation at the doh until 2013

They are just recommending delaying the 2nd jag not stopping.

 

Edit - as you can see I'm no science guy, I can't even multiquote

Edited December 23, 2020 by dirty dingus

[renton]

38 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

Uh huh. None of that means tougher tier 4 restrictions are required for the entire population. Shield the vulnerable, continue vaccinating. 

I agree that shielding in theory could be used instead of population wide restrictions. However, I have doubts as to the practical efficiacy of keeping the vulnerable populations out of the firing line.

The most stark revelation from the care home report wasn't that the NHS had allowed out positive cases into homes, it was that even when a known positive case discharged from hospital entered a care home, it didn't alter the risk in a statistically significant fashion, because ultimately there were so many other vectors for the virus into the home already.

As a general point then, shielding doesn't seem like it has a widely high chance of succeeding in isolating those populations that need protected. A virus that can more rapidly spread also changes the risks associated with the number of hospital beds. People who don't fall into the vulnerable categories still get hospitalised, and the more of them that do, the less bed space and treatment time for everyone, and more deaths again.

I get that this has to be balanced against other societal factors and in truth we still need more data to really show if this strain really is more infectious or if its just actually a low compliance, high population density problem in the South East.

I would also note that the quickest way to tier 1 is likely going through tier 4. The quicker you get cases down, the better for moving into lower tiers. This also has a knock on effect on the vaccination program. The lower the community transmission, the lower the threshold is for numbers of vaccinated persons required to start effectively helping break chains of infections and protecting non vaccinated people, and thus society opens sooner and in a more sustained fashion while the vaccination program gathers pace.

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

My cousin is a science guy and he says this too, if it's too nasty it will burn itself out as it runs out of hosts, so a weaker strain that becomes more contagious due to hosts being less ill with it means the more  succesful it will be in the charts.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I'm going to stick my head above the parapet here. I've worked on the development of a few vaccines and any double dose vaccine that I've worked with has a much longer lasting specific immune response after the second dose. After the first, the antibody response can fall rapidly. I've not worked on this coronavirus vaccine though, so don't know what adjuvant, etc. they're using and how that will affect their results.

Are you dirty dingus' cousin?

[D.A.F.C]

Well no, you are crediting one part of the mutation without having any idea about the others, i.e you are accounting increased transmission with no idea how severity is effected. SO aye, its way to simplistic to apply a ratio and scale it up

We don't know either way yet. If hospital admissions are rising in the same way relative to positive cases then its more than likely to be the same just more transmissible.
I really hope its a milder version but theres no proof either way yet. Best to be on the safe side.
Fully expect a lockdown until the summer tbh.

[The Moonster]

32 minutes ago, Mr X said:

Fair enough. It's not just our governments that are taking these steps though.

Meh, New Zealand had 7 new cases today. They've had 25 deaths IN TOTAL. They have virtually no restrictions imposed on them and are free to travel round the country to be with their family this week. An island that acted quickly and effectively. We can but dream.

[Billy Jean King]

Tony Blair appears to be arguing we should give everyone one shot of the vaccine when the prevailing opinion seems to be that you need to give two doses for it to be fully effective.

Tony "one jab" Blair to go with his old mucker John "2 jabs" Prescott

[Alert Mongoose]

13 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Toffs getting done, you love to see it.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/23/marquess-of-bute-charged-with-breaking-covid-travel-laws

Bet the utter c***s ask for ‘time to pay’ as well.

[101]

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Toffs getting done, you love to see it.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/23/marquess-of-bute-charged-with-breaking-covid-travel-laws

All that inbreeding hasn't done the aristocracy any favours.

Quote

The 21-year-old daughter of the multi-millionaire former F1 driver reportedly posted a short film on her Instagram account entitled “tier 4 journey”, which showed her wearing a life jacket and giving a thumbs up for the camera onboard a speedboat.

 

[Billy Jean King]

38,000 vaccinated in the week since the previous update then. Hopefully that's just supply issues and not the rate it's likely to progress at !

[madwullie]

54 minutes ago, The Moonster said:

This strain has apparently been doing the rounds potentially as early as the end of October in the UK and is most likely already circulating in Europe. If this strain means much more cases, much more people in hospital and much more death than the previous strains then we'd already see those hikes in figures. 

Well they say that's what's caused infections to rocket in the se and Wales 

[101]

1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

7 minutes ago, 101 said:

38,000 vaccinated in the week since the previous update then. Hopefully that's just supply issues and not the rate it's likely to progress at !

Will 100% be the supply and storage issues. Once we have the Oxford signed off we will be battering along nicely. Shame things will slow down on the public holidays

[renton]

1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

7 minutes ago, 101 said:

38,000 vaccinated in the week since the previous update then. Hopefully that's just supply issues and not the rate it's likely to progress at !

Well, 18,000 week 1, 38,000 week 2.... at least its going up. Having another 172,000 doses available by the end of the week is huge news though, especially  if the Oxford/AZ vaccine is approved by next week. Would instantly add another178,000 doses.