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Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.
This is unsustainable for businesses though, hospitality chief among them. Its bad enough for staff to be going back and forth onto 80% wages but businesses literally don't know from one day to the next whether to order stock, how much to order, whether to take bookings or not. Moving Aberdeen from 2 to 3 last week wouldve meant a shitload of places having to cancel Christmas dinners or people cancelling themselves. It's like the fucking hokey cokey for hospitality and they are by no means the only ones suffering.
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Once the first 6 or 7 priority groups have been vaccinated then we should all be living in the equivalent of tier 0 nationwide at a bare minimum.

I agree 100% with this.

We just need to make sure we don’t “crash the car” getting to that point.
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Speculation too that this new strain may spread more easily in children - only hypothetical atm, but the woman I heard speaking on the radio earlier said it was biologically plausible, to do with how the spikes attach to the ace thingmys, and seemingly these are expressed differently in children, and therefore easier for the virus to infect children. Obvs children don't get anywhere near as sick anywhere near as frequently as other age groups, but it could have knock on effects for teachers and other adults working in schools. If this is shown to be the case (and as a layman this might go some way to explaining the noticeably different age group infection rates in the South East and up here) then while we're all getting jabbed, it wouldn't be surprising if schools were treated differently this time round. 

Yes - when the facts change, so should our opinions.

As I’ve said before, there is risk to everything, and benefits need to be weighed against them. Where the risk increases, the corresponding benefit needs to be recalculated.

However, this is still speculation, so I’m happy to stick with the current course of action until it is shown that a change is needed.
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I agree 100% with this.

We just need to make sure we don’t “crash the car” getting to that point.
The longer it goes on for though, the more you feel they will continue to shift the goalposts. I really can't see, even if cases are at a similar level to what they were a couple of weeks back, the govt just going from lockdown (let's not call it tier 4, because its essentially lockdown) to tiers 1 and 2. Having the vaccination, I can see the govt saying that cases need to be even lower than they were a couple of weeks back to justify tiers 1 and 2
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Got a link? I've read through a few different publications of theirs on the subjects over different time periods. Be nice to see which assumptions they were modelling for.

I’m sure this question was asked last night during the same discussion. The facts weren’t forthcoming then, so I can’t see why they would be now.

All you need to know is School = 0.4. Apparently from SAGE, but no nuance, no backup, no assumptions. Take your telling from the big man!
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1 hour ago, Detournement said:

Can anyone see these Sage documents that only seemed to become public knowledge right after Christmas got cancelled in the SE? 

 

The SAGE analysis was published months ago and is already in this thread, I'm not rummaging around to bump the post for the 17th time tbqhwy.

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The uk is now changing the game in a way resembling Barcelona under guardiola , if they keep up at this pace they’ll be simply unplayable.
Ok it’s not funny anymore

Going by today’s cases iy looks like they really have lost control again and if a lockdown is necessary again then this isn’t the time to be doing half a job, last time round a proper lockdown with schools shut made cases drop like a stone. England opened up to quick and the travel corridors were quite ineffective. This time get it suppressed properly and make sure that there is a proper quarantine for international arrivals, in a hotel with security on the door.
Right now 90% of us would take normality at home with no foreign travel

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That article mentions estates and med records staff. If they're working in the "red zones" or whatever that hospital is calling their covid area then I don't see any reason why they shouldn't be eligible for the vaccine on the same basis as the nursing staff working in the same environment tbh. 
My cousin works in medical records and can be in and out of lots of wards on the same day, same goes for the maintenance staff who would be classed as estates. Fair enough that they get a jab, different matter for management who don't leave the office though.
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4 hours ago, coprolite said:

I'd imagine some fast track management trainee just emailed a spreadsheet round telling people to book their own slot. People sitting at their desks would be able to book straightaway, whereas clinical and care staff might have had to finish inserting tubes and the like first. 

I don't think people appreciate quite how important estates management is to the current crisis. You'd all be complaining if all the lighbulbs went and weren't replaced. 

Oh aye, HR, Facilities, Corporate Support, Secretariat, Executive Office etc whatever they are called in any organisation are the backbone and the beating heart of that institution.

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4 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Yes exactly. If the stories people have said on this thread about senior managers getting vaccinated ahead of frontline clinical/estates/domestic/med records etc staff are true, that's not on.  No health board is that poorly run though. 

No idea why you are so adamant about this, but fair enough, choose to believe that if you want. It’s a fact that non-patient facing administration staff booked vaccines before nurses and doctors in my local health board.

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8 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Yes exactly. If the stories people have said on this thread about senior managers getting vaccinated ahead of frontline clinical/estates/domestic/med records etc staff are true, that's not on.  No health board is that poorly run though. 

Like I said, in the hospital I'm talking about, it was just a booking system, literally like getting Glastonbury tickets etc. Intranet only though, slots released in batches - only those on PCs at that exact moment were able to snag a slot by refreshing the page. No cross reference of staff member and role. 

Honest guv I'm not lying / scaremongering. Please believe me maaaan 🙏 

Edited by madwullie
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12 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Yes exactly. If the stories people have said on this thread about senior managers getting vaccinated ahead of frontline clinical/estates/domestic/med records etc staff are true, that's not on.  No health board is that poorly run though

I mean wishaw general was all over the papers just yesterday because they've not been bothering to clean to the required standard since the pandemic began ffs

Edited by madwullie
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6 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Like I said, in the hospital I'm talking about, it was just a booking system, literally like getting Glastonbury tickets etc. Intranet only though, tickets released in batches - only those on PCs at that exact moment were able to snag a ticket by refreshing the page. No cross reference of staff member and role. 

I don't understand that, just send out the appointments in order of risk priority and deal with complaints or schedule conflicts later. Otherwise you just store up a shitstorm for later. There will obviously be mistakes just banding people in categories but you can sort that out later.

P.S. Too many "later"s. ed..

Edited by welshbairn
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8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't understand that, just send out the appointments in order of risk priority and deal with complaints or schedule conflicts later. Otherwise you just store up a shitstorm for later. There will obviously be mistakes just banding people in categories but you can sort that out later.

P.S. Too many "later"s. ed..

Dont disagree with a word of that. I suppose the only issue is with allied staff who occasionally have to go in wards. But it's hardly brain surgery to work out active nurses, doctors, facilities staff should all he done first 🤷‍♂️ 

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