Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Scosha]

With regards to tougher restrictions in tier 4, without going full scale lockdown then there may be some sort of curfew brought in perhaps? Portugal is currently only allowing folk outside their homes between 5am and 1pm. Anyone out after then are fined if caught. 
Really struggling to see how this ends now. 

[Detournement]

32 minutes ago, virginton said:

Well no because if the new variant takes hold and increases the R rate by 0.4 as the FM has just claimed, then governments will be faced with a choice between exponential growth or closing schools (R value = 0.4) in the New Year. There is no version of lockdown everything but the schools that will keep the infection rate below 1: even in April it was still about 0.6/0.7. The elephant in the room is simply too big to ignore now.

This is why neither government has actually confirmed that schools will in fact return and why they've punted it back as well. The mood music is pointing in one direction only.

Where is the evidence that schools cause 0.4 R? 

South Lanarkshire has went from 350/100k to 133/100k with the schools open so it's clear that the rate can drop with the schools open.

[madwullie]

Off topic, but talking about the flu vaccine, I was reading the other day that they are close to creating a vaccine that would cover you for all types of flu and wouldn't be required to be given every year. 

It's to do with being able to block the "parent" branches of the usual mutations we see. I don't have the vocabulary to express this, but essentially rather than attacking the yearly mutations, this new vaccine will attack the branch from which the yearly mutations arise. 

[KillieCon]

I think she's Ayr Utd.   Brought up in Irvine. 

Explains a lot.

[Ron Aldo]

On the vaccine, I was reading earlier that Pfizer are confident their vaccine will continue to work against the new mutation. Not that I know exactly what this means but they say their vaccine contains 1270 amino acids and, in the mutation, only 9 of these have changed.

They also say that if the virus mutates in such a way that a new vaccine is required then they should be able to process this in about 6 weeks.

As I say, I have no real knowledge as to how vaccines are developed but it's still reassuring to be given some context rather than just having some politician / scientific advisor coming out and saying "we think it'll still work".

[renton]

17 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

36 minutes ago, MP_MFC said:

The longer it goes and the noises being made about tougher restrictions make me think that the AZ vaccine really has been fucked up in their data and its not getting approved.

It is very quiet on that front. The Russian tie in didn't exactly inspire confidence a few weeks ago either. I still think (maybe even hope now) that the Westminster Clown Troop are waiting to announce it literally on 31 December in an attempt to bury and Brexit shit show.

Telegraph had an "exclusive" that it would be approved by the 29th. That's probably a government approved leak. After the initial results were announced they said they were going back to look at the 90% sub sample again and do some more trials. That is (hopefully) what will have caused the delay so far. The Daily Heil reckons that the official submission for approval was made on the 27th of November with a decision made by "next Tuesday"... article is dated 21st December so decision expected by 29th which stacks up with the Torygraph story.

4 million doses in country, which means we can vaccinate another 178,000 people quickly in Scotland on a 2 full dose solution, or, if they go on a wing and a prayer and use the 1.5 dose from the higher performing sub sample, 237,000 more folk quickly.

Edited December 22, 2020 by renton

[Ron Aldo]

It is very quiet on that front. The Russian tie in didn't exactly inspire confidence a few weeks ago either. I still think (maybe even hope now) that the Westminster Clown Troop are waiting to announce it literally on 31 December in an attempt to bury and Brexit shit show.

I suppose you could say that no news is good news. I certainly haven't seen anything to suggest it won't be approved and if there's one thing that's become apparent these last few months it's that the media will take any negative news and run with it. If it wasn't being approved I'm sure something would have been "leaked" by now.

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The government can't promise anything, it's just a fact of life that nobody knows how the virus will mutate or how effective the vaccines will be at stopping transmission or coping with later strains. We'll have to live with uncertainty for a while yet, hopefully not too long. I've got holidays booked for May and July, refundable of course.

So you are ok with this type of restrictions rolling in and out based on case numbers for an undefined period of time, or indefinitely?

[101]

2 hours ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Going to sound like philpy here, but that’s not my intention. Getting a takeaway for lunch, and two groups of 6 teenagers have just been sat down for lunch. It’s definitely a bit grating knowing you can barely wipe your arse at the moment, but that nearly adult age teenagers seem to be allowed to do that.

To be fair maybe they aren’t and the restaurant is breaking rules.

Could you have taken them in a fight?

[vikingTON]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Where is the evidence that schools cause 0.4 R? 

The government's SAGE documents.

Quote

South Lanarkshire has went from 350/100k to 133/100k with the schools open so it's clear that the rate can drop with the schools open.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by vikingTON

[welshbairn]

22 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

So you are ok with this type of restrictions rolling in and out based on case numbers for an undefined period of time, or indefinitely?

Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.

Edited December 22, 2020 by welshbairn

[renton]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

The government's SAGE documents.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Got a link? I've read through a few different publications of theirs on the subjects over different time periods. Be nice to see which assumptions they were modelling for.

[Honest_Man#1]

18 minutes ago, 101 said:

Could you have taken them in a fight?

Undoubtedly. Luckily I’m nails, so I’d have thrown all 12 of them up and down the street like an empty tracksuit.

[101]

3 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Undoubtedly. Luckily I’m nails, so I’d have thrown all 12 of them up and down the street like an empty tracksuit.

Missed opportunity.

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

The government's SAGE documents.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Can anyone see these Sage documents that only seemed to become public knowledge right after Christmas got cancelled in the SE? 

As for the R rate if schools were providing 0.4 of 0.8 then that means the there was somehow less virus transmitting outside schools in November than in the ghost town days of April. Forgetting any speculative new strains the overall case rate in Scotland is still very low.

 

[madwullie]

34 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Off topic, but talking about the flu vaccine, I was reading the other day that they are close to creating a vaccine that would cover you for all types of flu and wouldn't be required to be given every year. 

It's to do with being able to block the "parent" branches of the usual mutations we see. I don't have the vocabulary to express this, but essentially rather than attacking the yearly mutations, this new vaccine will attack the branch from which the yearly mutations arise. 

Found the article 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/innovative-universal-flu-vaccine-shows-promises-it-first-clinical-test

[Guest]

The US have just pushed through another raft of Economic measures, however similar to our ridiculous "furlough" scheme, there's much unrest being caused by their even more ridiculous unemployment benefit scheme.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-americans-are-getting-more-money-from-unemployment-than-they-were-from-their-jobs/

Again, this just confirms how out of touch with reality that the political elites are both here and in the USA.

 

[Bairnardo]

33 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

This was wildly different from the flu at the outset. But from now, it becomes very similar, except no flu vaccine is close to 90% effective I believe.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

Yes we do, and roll out the vaccines every year. And if it got to where it looked like healthcare might not be able to cope similar measures would likely be taken.

Edited December 22, 2020 by welshbairn

[101]

1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

This was wildly different from the flu at the outset. But from now, it becomes very similar, except no flu vaccine is close to 90% effective I believe.

There is usually a message at the start of the flu season tbh now it would probably be work from/ stay home if you have any symptoms which is hopefully one of the many good things about this will mean folk don't soldier into an office whilst sick and make everyone else ill.