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ICTChris

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The whole question of cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses is being actively explored in the scientific literature:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445320306836

and is not some wacky internet theory.

That's interesting, good find.

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Re my Q, just read the first response to the bmj article linked. It suggests that acceleration of caseload means that they are nowhere near the herd immunity threshold (which is what I presume HIT stands for). Granted, the guy that wrote it could just be some guy, and have no more knowledge than your average p&b denizen, but he did use big words and stuff. He cites Karachi as potentially having 51% immunity. Must go and read up on that when I get a sec. 

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12 minutes ago, madwullie said:

If Sweden is sitting at ~50% immunity, give or take, how come cases have shot up 70% in a week? How come New York's caseload is steadily rising too? 

(genuine question, not trying to be contrary before @Todd_is_God tries to spark a can of whoop ass)

As a layman I would have thought as widespread immunity was approached, then the speed of spread would slow, not accelerate. Is that wrong? 

I'm sure @renton will correct me if i'm wrong, but I don't think being immune means that the viral RNA can't still be detected?

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1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

I'm sure @renton will correct me if i'm wrong, but I don't think being immune means that the viral RNA can't still be detected?

👍

Todd, do you (or anyone) have any articles to hand or knowledge about Karachi? 

Edit: Nvm, Google searching Karachi covid immunity surprisingly returns loads of results. What a fucking idiot 🤦‍♂️ 

Edited by madwullie

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1 minute ago, madwullie said:

👍

Todd, do you (or anyone) have any articles to hand or knowledge about Karachi? 

I don't, sorry

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51 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Are the tiers being announced during the briefing?

 

This is another thing that annoys me - the milking of announcements. We’ve known about the tier system for over a week now, we know what the levels consist of and the media have “predicted” what regions will be in what tiers. Why not just announce things at the time instead of eeking it out like a soap opera storyline. 

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3 minutes ago, madwullie said:

👍

Todd, do you (or anyone) have any articles to hand or knowledge about Karachi? 

Manaus in Brazil has probably been reported on and studied more. Some locations like that have seemed to only hit herd immunity after significantly higher percentages of the population have been infected than appeared to be the case with Stockholm and parts of New York City.

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7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The talking thing maybe explains how my FiL managed to be in the same room constantly with my MiL who was symptomatic for 3 days before being taken to icu, yet he didn't catch it. He never shuts the f**k up, so she probably just sat and silently suffered. 

Edit: that article is actually fucking excellent 

Edited by madwullie

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1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Manaus in Brazil has probably been reported on and studied more. Some locations like that have seemed to only hit herd immunity after significantly higher percentages of the population have been infected than appeared to be the case with Stockholm and parts of New York City.

Cheers mate, will check it out 👍 

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You also have to factor in that there are estimated to be around 30% of people with immunity already, from exposure to similar viruses in the past. So 20% with antibodies + 30% pre-existing immunity = 50%

And that's before you include any sort of immunity via T-cells etc.

The analysis from most of the 'experts' on SAGE seems to be to ignore the possibility of any pre-existing immunity, and ignore anything that isn't antibodies.

That way they arrive at a figure of around 93% of the population are still susceptible, rather than potentially as low as 35%

I would imagine that the strategy for the latter would be quite different from the former.

 

In that analogy with infections running at an estimated 100k a day in England per today's update and potentially only 18.5m left to infect, in 6 months there would be 100% infection / immunity which is surely nonsense.  

 

ETA and that's with current measures !

 

 

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f**k sake, that's us set for another month of confinement.

At least Macron announced the schools were staying open, cueing howls from the kids and a 'Yass! Get in!' from me.

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53 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Very interesting and helpful article but I'm disappointed to see these fabrications being published:

Quote

In the classroom with 24 students

The riskiest scenario is a classroom with no ventilation and the teacher – patient 0 – as the infected person.

If two hours are spent in the classroom with an infected teacher, without taking any measures to counter the number of aerosols, there is the risk that up to 12 students could become infected.

If everyone is wearing a face mask, the number that could become infected drops to five. In real outbreaks, it has been noted that any of the students could become infected irrespective of their proximity to the teacher as the aerosols are distributed randomly around the unventilated room.

If the room is ventilated during the lesson, either with fresh air or mechanically, and the class is stopped after an hour in order to completely refresh the air, the risk drops dramatically.

They obviously never consulted Are Jason before publishing that nonsense.

Edited by Szamo's_Ammo

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