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ICTChris

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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55 minutes ago, Donathan said:

VACCINE UPDATE:

Had a message overnight from my guy over in Ireland who’s plugged in on all the vaccine stuff. Here’s what he told me:

- Pfizer expect to be able to vaccinate all healthcare workers and vulnerable people in the USA by end of January and the rest of the population by the summer.

- Now looking like the interim analysis on Oxford/AZ does NOT show enough data for emergency approval to be granted imminently. Sorry.

- Moderna and Oxford both likely to be better vaccines than Pfizer as they have potential to reduce transmission but most likely just reduce severe disease. The Pfizer vaccine is ahead in the race but is only likely to prevent serious disease, will NOT stop transmission and if we still continue mass testing will still see thousands upon thousands of cases per day, but should help prevent hospitalisations and deaths.

- Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and GSK/Sanofi are not in human trials yet but on their initial trials in hamsters, they’re showing even stronger immune responses than the three that are close to approval. Could well be that these vaccines end up being the longer term players because they will help reduce transmission, not just disease.

A bit unfair on innocent hamsters IMO, trials should be done on bats seeing as they are the arseholes that started all this. Pangolins as well just to be sure. 

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A bit unfair on innocent hamsters IMO, trials should be done on bats seeing as they are the arseholes that started all this. Pangolins as well just to be sure. 


Or old firm fans

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The P&B pseuds still peddling the Sweden myth yXAbrOQ.png

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11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...because that would call into question whether the first lockdown should have been as drastic as it was and whether letting the process of acquiring immunity unfold among the wider community (Sweden cough splutter) when people have stronger immune systems due to greater exposure to sunshine in the summer months might have been the way to go.

Antibody surveys have suggested that around 20% of the population of Stockholm have been infected so about the same as London and New York. Given that you need around 70% of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity it's another example of why the fawning over Sweden is misplaced.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282

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1 minute ago, RiG said:

Antibody surveys have suggested that around 20% of the population of Stockholm have been infected so about the same as London and New York. Given that you need around 70% of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity it's another example of why the fawning over Sweden is misplaced.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282

Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those.

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2 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Mon the hamsters 

Hamsters - a great bunch of rodents. 

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6 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those.

My understanding is that, in the first instance when the body encounters a new virus, antibodies are produced by immune cells. Once you have recovered from said virus (some of) the immune cells remain in the body as "memory cells" ready to fight a similar virus in the future.

ETA: First couple of paras explains it better than me :lol:

https://www.newscientist.com/term/antibodies/

Edited by RiG

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

The P&B pseuds still peddling the Sweden myth yXAbrOQ.png

We'll see where everyone stands at the end of the winter.

The idiot position is to say but Norway without knowing anything about the differences between the two countries. 

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13 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, ...

Think what he would probably have been getting at is that the whole question of immunity is more complex than whether antibodies are present. Going back as far as the cruise ship incidents early in the year where only a limited portion of people on board got infected, things have not unfolded the way that would have been expected if 100% of the population was equally susceptible. Still lots of research to be done to fully understand why.

Edited by LongTimeLurker

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16 minutes ago, RiG said:

Antibody surveys have suggested that around 20% of the population of Stockholm have been infected so about the same as London and New York. Given that you need around 70% of the population to be infected to achieve herd immunity it's another example of why the fawning over Sweden is misplaced.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0141076820945282

 

14 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those.

I read some comments after the report earlier this week that you won't have the actual antibodies forever but your immune system will be able to create them after infection.  Not sure how that fits into T cell immunity which I've also heard other people discuss.  Not sure how you can measure that.

ETA, I see @RiG post has answered this.

Edited by ICTChris

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11 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Was reading a thing from an immunologist saying antibodies aren't immunity, as they only show up for a short while after you've been infected. They said memory white blood cells are, but I dunno how they measure those.

You also have to factor in that there are estimated to be around 30% of people with immunity already, from exposure to similar viruses in the past.

So 20% with antibodies + 30% pre-existing immunity = 50%

And that's before you include any sort of immunity via T-cells etc.

The analysis from most of the 'experts' on SAGE seems to be to ignore the possibility of any pre-existing immunity, and ignore anything that isn't antibodies.

That way they arrive at a figure of around 93% of the population are still susceptible, rather than potentially as low as 35%

I would imagine that the strategy for the latter would be quite different from the former.

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2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

You also have to factor in that there are estimated to be around 30% of people with immunity already, from exposure to similar viruses in the past.

So 20% with antibodies + 30% pre-existing immunity = 50%

And that's before you include any sort of immunity via T-cells etc.

The analysis from most of the 'experts' on SAGE seems to be to ignore the possibility of any pre-existing immunity, and ignore anything that isn't antibodies.

That way they arrive at a figure of around 93% of the population are still susceptible, rather than potentially as low as 35%

I would imagine that the strategy for the latter would be quite different from the former.

That's an interesting figure, where is it from?

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5 minutes ago, renton said:

That's an interesting figure, where is it from?

The whole question of cross-immunity from exposure to other coronaviruses is being actively explored in the scientific literature:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0163445320306836

and is not some wacky internet theory.

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If Sweden is sitting at ~50% immunity, give or take, how come cases have shot up 70% in a week? How come New York's caseload is steadily rising too? 

(genuine question, not trying to be contrary before @Todd_is_God tries to spark a can of whoop ass)

As a layman I would have thought as widespread immunity was approached, then the speed of spread would slow, not accelerate. Is that wrong? 

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5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The interesting bit there for me is where they discuss the less than random nature of interactions and therefore infections, which seems entirely reasonable to me, which places herd immunity threshold far lower. Something that the independent SAGE group paper also said.

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