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Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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9 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Just hoping Dalry swimming pool in Edinburgh doesnt get shut.....sounds like a fun place to visit 

We are sorry for suggesting Dalry Swim Centre was a dogging hotspot and would like to apologise. The original research sent to Edinburgh Live provided no evidence to back up their claim about the Swim Centre. We believe that the Swim Centre takes great care to ensure guest safety and that the Swim Centre provides a deeply valuable service to the local community.

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14 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Yes. Because she didn't mention the bits in blue.

Yeah, even then though the bit in bold underneath suggests it still isn't statistically significant, and you can see why:

A hospital discharge with a positive test has an associated mean hazard ratio of 1.45 and 3.74 at it's high 95% confidence interval (a wide window due to lack of data) whereas simply being in a care home, where the size was 20-29 residents had a mean adjusted hazard ratio of 3.53, and by the time you get to the bigger homes, that increases to 17.3.

In other words, simply being in a care home  full stop carries a far larger risk by itself than the effect of having a positive test hospital discharge in there, and that the larger the home, the greater the risk.

It's not saying that the positive test wasn't the index case behind any individual outbreak, simply that its impossible to discern against the overall footfall, visits and movement in and out of homes, which is the marker from the care home size.

If nothing else, it makes the case that any future guidance around the care sector should probably point towards sealing off homes as much as possible, with limited to no outside, untested contact for the duration of an outbreak.

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8 minutes ago, Stan Hope said:

they did all this at the school my sister teaches at, back at the start of term in August, the same kids were rolling around the play park together, once school was out, all seems pretty pointless.

It saves the school getting sued for not undertaking and implementing a risk assessment.

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1 hour ago, Stellaboz said:

Germany about to go into a lockdown of sorts again from next week.

I was in Berlin at the weekend. Could have been me etc. 

Edited by Karpaty Lviv

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Personally (and I'm not saying this should apply to all), had I not gone to uni which obviously made the high school prerequisites essential, then I'm struggling to think of much that I learned at high school that I'd use day to day now.  The most basic algebra for working out where to put the brackets in an Excel formula is probably the main one.  That and how first-past-the-post works (I'm convinced a substantial number of folk in eg. NE Fife think that anything not SNP/Lib Dem makes a difference).  As cool as the double slit experiment is, it's nothing that YouTube couldn't have taught me.  That said, at least it lays the foundations for other career options.  "can you tell me the difference between a tenon and a coping saw?". Well yes, yes I can.  Thank you crazy Mr Malcolm. 
The school of P&B on the other hand... 


It’s all about conditioning and preparing you for that 9-5 life baby!

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3 hours ago, Stan Hope said:

closing them would prevent that too would it not ?

The schools aren't going to be closed though, are they?

Edited by Jacksgranda
Grandma

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I dip in now and again to coronavirus briefings, news etc. and then once I know what I can and cannot do, I go a large period of time avoiding reading too much about it - because it's too depressing.

Therefore I have a question that may be daft and may have been answered previously, so apologies for that. But it's about vaccines. 

Why do we have stories like this Vaccine is 'likely to be imperfect' and 'might not prevent infection', warns head of UK task force one immediately after stories like this Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest one? Is it because they genuinely don't believe the Oxford vaccine will work as well as reported, or are they just tempering our expectations but it might work as well as reported?

The whole way through I've been, probably naively, thinking life will pretty much be normal again once a vaccine is rolled out - which I know will take time. But the general opinion now appears to be that even with a vaccine life is going to still be pretty grim. I just can't work out how that can be. 

Edited by Slacker

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I've seen a few folks out and about wearing snoods instead of masks because it is either more comfortable especially if the person can have breathing issues or they just look good which isn't a practical reason. They would get a bit manky very quickly so would need washing as much as a reusable mask.

Just bought a polyester mask from Superdrug to see if they feel more protective and this one has been treated with an anti bacterial. If I cough most of that won't go through the mask etc. Certainly more sweaty since the material doesn't soak up any moisture from breathing and for some reason I can really smell if someone has just farted when they walk past??? Can you catch the virus from farts?

Cotton masks soak up any moisture as would scarves being used like this, if not cleaned regularly a lot worse than not wearing one at all.

The main point is that all masks should have on their packaging that they are not effective at protecting the wearer from catching COVID-19 this is confirmed on the pharmacy websites, they only reduce the chance of someone being infected by the mask wearer if that person is infectious without realising it. Also if someone is wearing a mask other mask wearers see that person conforming and being of little risk, its a false sense of security but that is what this is all about. Reduce the risk and keep calm. Its a bit like a baby comforter. All these fancy masks with all the different designs on them, even the blue disposable ones we now find more often in the puddles by the road or growing out of the bushes are useless to protect the wearer against the virus.

Social distancing especially when someone is talking to you, regular washing of your hands with soap and water and not touching surfaces unless you have to are by far more effective. I'm not anti mask, I just find it interesting the psychological effect they have on the wearer and why some people think they are bullet proof when wearing one. Generally I just keep away from people, even at work unless I have to. I am now more aware of that I can see water droplets being spat out when I talk and also see other peoples as well when not wearing a mask.

 

Edited by Snafu

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It's possible this wasn't an entirely neutral study, but if robust it will be handy for the gym lobby.

Quote

Keeping gyms and leisure centres open during the pandemic is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of communities, according to academics who found they pose an extremely low Covid-19 risk.

Analysis of more than 62 million fitness facility visits across Europe since September has found the average infection rate in gyms, leisure centres and fitness clubs is 0.78 per 100,000 visits.

The SafeACTiVE study found only 487 positive cases reported from operators based in Germany, France, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Poland, Denmark, Luxembourg and the UK.


The preliminary findings of the study, conducted by Sheffield Hallam University’s Advanced Wellbeing Research Centre (AWRC) and King Juan Carlos University in Spain, will bolster calls from the fitness sector for facilities to remain open as coronavirus restrictions tighten in some regions.

The director of the AWRC, Prof Rob Copeland, said: “We know that being physically fit can help reduce the severity of Covid-19 infection and, moreover, being active can help us cope psychologically when faced with the challenges of a second wave of the pandemic across Europe.

“Keeping leisure centres and fitness clubs open and fully operational is critical to ensuring the health and wellbeing of our communities.”

The research has been commissioned by EuropeActive - a non-profit association for the European fitness and physical activity sector.

 

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I dip in now and again to coronavirus briefings, news etc. and then once I know what I can and cannot do, I go a large period of time avoiding reading too much about it - because it's too depressing.

Therefore I have a question that may be daft and may have been answered previously, so apologies for that. But it's about vaccines. 

Why do we have stories like this Vaccine is 'likely to be imperfect' and 'might not prevent infection', warns head of UK task force one immediately after stories like this Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest one? Is it because they genuinely don't believe the Oxford vaccine will work as well as reported, or are they just tempering our expectations but it might work as well as reported?

The whole way through I've been, probably naively, thinking life will pretty much be normal again once a vaccine is rolled out - which I know will take time. But the general opinion now appears to be that even with a vaccine life is going to still be pretty grim. I just can't work out how that can be. 

 

my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

 

 

Effectively you’ll still get thousands of people testing positive but much less deaths and pressure on the health system

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@welshbairn

If it was simply down to net harm reduction gyms would undoubtedly stay open but they will eventually all be closed just so the government can be seen to be doing something.

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2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 


my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

 

The vast majority of cases are already mild or asymptomatic.

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The vast majority of cases are already mild or asymptomatic.

Yup, and the vaccine could push that up even more

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53 minutes ago, superbigal said:

We are sorry for suggesting Dalry Swim Centre was a dogging hotspot and would like to apologise. The original research sent to Edinburgh Live provided no evidence to back up their claim about the Swim Centre. We believe that the Swim Centre takes great care to ensure guest safety and that the Swim Centre provides a deeply valuable service to the local community.

Spoilsports

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3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

@welshbairn

If it was simply down to net harm reduction gyms would undoubtedly stay open but they will eventually all be closed just so the government can be seen to be doing something.

I had no idea they were doing nothing.

Did the 5 tier system magically appear one morning out of a box of Shreddies?

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3 minutes ago, Donathan said:

my vaccine guy basically says that it “works” by reducing symptoms. So the vaccine might take someone who’d otherwise get a mild illness and make them asymptomatic, or take someone who’d get a moderate to severe illness and give them a mild illness, or take someone who’d die and give them a nasty but non-fatal illness instead. It is NOT expected to reduce the actual transmission (although the J&J vaccine which is months behind Oxford has a better chance of doing that)

Think in layman's terms that this vaccine would train the body's immune system how to deal with a virus with COVID-19's general sort of shape by attaching a fragment of that structural type into another more or less harmless viral structure in the vaccine that the body builds up an immune response to. What's critical is the percentage of elderly people with comorbidities this helps keep alive, because it will need to be most people in that category to put a major dent into the number of deaths.

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3 minutes ago, Donathan said:


Yup, and the vaccine could push that up even more

Yes, but what is the worse case scenario?

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Yes. Because she didn't mention the bits in blue.
NS was very keen to reference upper and lower ends of the estimates when talking about prevelance, R numbers and case numbers in the summer when they were in her favour. It's only fair that, when they are not so in her favour, their omission is met with questioning. It works both ways.
I'm in no way condoning or defending her here just stating the facts. She made it clear at the outset she wasn't going to discuss the outcome in detail via the daily briefing is all I was pointing out.

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