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This is only going to go 2 ways.

The "strictly limited period" will end up being bullshit and some of us will still be in level 4 in January.

Restrictions will be eased for Christmas, cases will inevitably rise and then the public will be blamed for being irresponsible. Restrictions will then be reintroduced.

Both situations are a fucking disaster and sum up the shambolic handling of this in recent months.

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2 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

This is only going to go 2 ways.

The "strictly limited period" will end up being bullshit and some of us will still be in level 4 in January.

Restrictions will be eased for Christmas, cases will inevitably rise and then the public will be blamed for being irresponsible. Restrictions will then be reintroduced.

Both situations are a fucking disaster and sum up the shambolic handling of this in recent months.

3 weeks for tier 4. Lifted 11th December. 

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23 hours ago, superbigal said:

A week on let's have a look at progress.

Overall cases per 100K were 154 when I did this post last Tuesday.   Figures were up to 7th November.

6 Days later and figures to 13th November show a decrease to 141.5 or  8.12%   Suggest R is now between 0.95 & 1.00

I now have the last 14 days of Data for each Council.

Start with the tier 3 Councils and move down to Tier 1    My comments in brackets.  Bold if significant

City Of Edinburgh  Tier 3  86.3 to 86.9 Increase 0.69%   (Reversed slight downward trend to overall increase 0.69%. So Tier 3 is Correct)

Clackmannanshire  Tier 3   131.9 to 99.0  Decrease 24.94% (actually an increase in cases since last week..   Tier 3 for now.)

Dundee City  Tier 3   176.8 to 138.0   Decrease 21.95%  (Same comments as Clack an increase in last week Stay tier 3)

East Ayrshire  Tier 3   220.5 to 172.1    Decrease  21.95%   (A tiny further decrease since last weeks good work.  Unlucky if they now get punted to Tier 4)

East Dunbartonshire  Tier 3   222.8 to 224.6    Increase 0.48%    (Another small rise So Tier 3 no effect must enter Tier 4)

East Lothian   Tier 3   97.1 to 60.7   Decrease 37.48%    (Sustained decreases and really should get promoted to Tier 2)

East Renfrewshire  Tier 3   226.1 to 197.8  Decrease 12.51%   I   (After last weeks scathing comments a good week. Unlucky to have your best week and then get punted into tier 4)

Falkirk   Tier 3    118.7 to 88.3  Decrease 25.61%    (Actually a bad week in Falkirk So Tier 3 has to stay)

Glasgow City  Tier 3   299.5 to 275.6   Decrease 7.97%  (1st time in weeks they are actually behaving but clearly will still get punted to Tier 4)

Inverclyde  Tier 3   72.0 to 101.5    Increase 40.97%  (Reversed much of last weeks huge rises so will be mightily unfortunate to leave tier 3)

Midlothian  Tier 3  97.3 to 58.4   Decrease  39.97%    ( These guys are really following the rules and should get promotion soon to Tier 2 )

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  178.1 to 139.5   Decrease 21.67%   (Some people on West side of country are behaving.  Continuing to drop.  Tier 4 would be a shocker and have little justification.) 

North Lanarkshire  Tier 3  280 to 237.6   Decrease  15.14%    (1st time in weeks they are actually behaving but clearly will still get punted to Tier 4)

Renfrewshire  Tier 3  231.2 to 241.8   Increase 4.58%   (Again their 1st actual decent week but too little too late.  Tier 4 is a must)

South Ayrshire  Tier 3  151.9 to 159.0  Increase 4.67%    (Actually also a very good week but may be too late Could cling on to Tier 3)

South Lanarkshire  Tier 3 317.6 to 229.3  Decrease  27.80%   (A very good fortnight. Still very high number though. Tier 4 tomorrow will still take a bit of explaining)

Stirling Tier 3   77.5 to 167.7   Increase  116.39%  (What is going on in Stirling ?  Hurtling towards obvious Tier 4 out of nowhere!!)

West Dunbartonshire  Tier 3  208 to 181.0  decrease 12.98%%    (Another with a good week so why tier 4 tomorrow would need explained)

West Lothian   Tier 3  181.3 to 158.4  Decrease 12.63%   (Decent week but clearly staying Tier 3)

Fife Tier 2 moved to Tier 3   81.9  to 143   Increase 74.60%   (Fife really needs to screw the nut or it could end up in Tier 4)

Perth & Kinross Tier 2 moved to Tier 3  75.0 to 88.8  Increase 18.40%   (Tier 3 is having an effect decent week)

Angus Tier 2 moved to Tier 3   51.6 to 84.3   Increase 63.37%    (Tier 3 had an impact but not turned the tide yet)

Aberdeen City Tier 2,  44.6 to 55.5    Increase 24.43%      (Bad week and more chance of sliding to tier 3 than 1. But then again "They can Boogie")

Aberdeenshire Tier 2   29.5 to 53.2   Increase 80.33 %   (Similar to the city a real bad week and heading to wrong tier)

Argyll & Bute  Tier 2    57.1 to 31.4   Decrease 45.00%    (Another good week and surely go Tier 1)

Dumfries & Galloway  Tier 2  62.5 to 51.1  Decrease 18.24%     (Good week another similar needed for Tier 1)

Borders  Tier 2  39.8 to 61.5  Increase 54.52%  (moaned they were in tier 2  but now rightly so)

Highland  Tier 1   19.9 to 20.4 Increase 2.51%  (No change Tier 1)

Moray   Tier 1   14.6 to 32.4  Increase 121.92%  (Still tiny number but may be pushed to tier 2 if continues)

Na h-Eileanan Siar  Tier 1   3.7 to 22.5     (Basically was 1 case and now 6   Tier 1 no problem)

Orkney Tier 1   9.0 to 4.5    (Basically was 2 cases and now 1.  Get them in Tier 0)

Shetlands Tier 1   8.7 to 0.0  (Was 2 cases and now 0 cases.  Get them in Tier 0)

 

I think I wrote her speech

 

North Ayrshire  Tier 3  178.1 to 139.5   Decrease 21.67%   (Some people on West side of country are behaving.  Continuing to drop.  Tier 4 would be a shocker and have little justification.) 

Edited by superbigal
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On 15/11/2020 at 15:12, Bairnardo said:

Worryingly just heard tier 4 for Falkirk area from someone who might well be ITK. Certainly they are pretty high up at FVRH and I dont consider them to be a gossip monger or bullshitter.

 

 

Nicola is going to have to issue a correction as soon as she finishes her speech.

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T4 to be lifted on 11 December allegedly.

North Ayrshire surrounded by T4 restricted areas is simply lunacy. All into Largs from Renfrewshire and Irvine from East and South Ayrshire at weekends will be all that happens here.
Why? It's not like theres loads to do in a tier 3 area.
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2 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

T4 to be lifted on 11 December allegedly.

North Ayrshire surrounded by T4 restricted areas is simply lunacy. All into Largs from Renfrewshire and Irvine from East and South Ayrshire at weekends will be all that happens here.

Will hopefully be allowed to be battoned on the head under new travel laws.

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This is only going to go 2 ways.

The "strictly limited period" will end up being bullshit and some of us will still be in level 4 in January.

Restrictions will be eased for Christmas, cases will inevitably rise and then the public will be blamed for being irresponsible. Restrictions will then be reintroduced.

Both situations are a fucking disaster and sum up the shambolic handling of this in recent months.
My bet is on the second scenario. Two, (or three at a push) households (max 6 people) can form a "bubble" over the festive period.

Folk will largely do what they want anyway, then tier 4 reimposed in January.
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