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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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16 hours ago, G51 said:

Barclays Investment Bank reckoned there was an 85% chance of at least three vaccines being approved for use by Christmas. So it's probably a gamble worth taking.

Was reading up on what's happening with vaccines last night and people may need to temper their expectations a bit. There doesn't seem to be any immediate prospect of a smallpox style vaccine that will provide permanent sterilising immunity in the manner that would be required to be able to achieve herd immunity. According to some of what is online any vaccine that gets through phase 3 OK (this is not an easy process and is no sure thing) and gets released early next year may only be 50% effective in alleviating symptoms somewhat in high risk groups for a few months rather than in preventing transmission. If that's the case, I can definitely understand why it tends to be bankers and politicians that talk up vaccines rather than medical health professionals.

 

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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6 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

Latest ONS stats out this morning

Deaths in England & Wales continue to track the 5 year average, as they have done since the end of May

There is no second wave 

 

FD7CD9E7-54A1-40D7-9F38-5E847AE46A60.jpeg

Why is this the case? 

Is it because the virus 🦠 has changed and is less dangerous than it was in March or is it due to the increased focus on hand washing, masks and social distancing, since March?

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6 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

Why is this the case? 

Is it because the virus 🦠 has changed and is less dangerous than it was in March or is it due to the increased focus on hand washing, masks and social distancing, since March?

We were finding maybe 1 in every 10 cases back in March, so tested cases vs. Deaths looks different then than now where, for all its faults, there is a larger test capacity. The 2nd wave might 'look' bigger but it's nowhere near the size of the first in all probability, yet.

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Let's be honest here - look at the amount of deaths we had in April v the amount of tests that were undertaken. It's pretty clear that we didn't have a fucking clue how many people had it because we weren't bothering with testing. 

Now that we've got that we're picking up cases that would never have been identified. This should help to stop the spread and reduce deaths, provided people isolate upon receipt of their positive test or notification from test and trace. 

The testing is showing more young people are getting it which is minimising deaths compared with cases too, but I'm quite sure many young people caught it back at the start of the year and just never realised and weren't tested. 

Edited by Michael W
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1 hour ago, Michael W said:

 

The testing is showing more young people are getting it which is minimising deaths compared with cases too, but I'm quite sure many young people caught it back at the start of the year and just never realised and weren't tested. 

That doesn't really fit with the 'long Covid!!!!!!1111!!!!!!' narrative to pretend that is a significant risk to the entire population though, so will be ditched in favour of similar Irish-style lockdowns 'to save Christmas!!!!!1111!!!!'

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2 hours ago, renton said:

We were finding maybe 1 in every 10 cases back in March, so tested cases vs. Deaths looks different then than now where, for all its faults, there is a larger test capacity. The 2nd wave might 'look' bigger but it's nowhere near the size of the first in all probability, yet.

1 in 10, more like 1 in 1000s. Tests were for those at death's door, and Prince Charles. 

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13 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I didn't realise that the Welsh lockdown was restricting schools, only certain years in secondary school are going back. 

What's the age cut off? I definitely think we should be restricting at least the S5 and S6s going back...

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27 minutes ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

1 in 10, more like 1 in 1000s. Tests were for those at death's door, and Prince Charles. 

Well, I think the study they did showed about 5% immunity in the population after wave 1, so in terms of Scotland you are talking 250,000 folk having had it. After the first wave I think the data up here was about 25,000 confirmed cases hence the 1/10 estimate.

Edited by renton
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10 minutes ago, renton said:

What's the age cut off? I definitely think we should be restricting at least the S5 and S6s going back...

Primary school and years 7 and 8 (S1 & S2) can go back. Everyone else off until the firebreak ceases. 

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6 minutes ago, renton said:

Well, I think the study they did showed about 5% immunity in the population after wave 1, so in terms of Scotland you are talking 250,000 folk having had it. After the first wave I think the data up here was about 25,000 confirmed cases hence the 1/10 estimate.

Latest from WHO is the IFR is probably > 0.2% in most locations:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

...Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.

An order of magnitude down from the 2% figure that was generally being mentioned in the media on mortality back in February or so based on what was reported to be happening in Wuhan. If we take 0.2% that means around 500 cases per death. If there have been 2610 deaths after testing positive so far then it would be reasonable to expect there to have been over 1.3 million people in Scotland who have been infected at some point.

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Latest from WHO is the IFR is probably > 0.2% in most locations:
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
...Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.
An order of magnitude down from the 2% figure that was generally being mentioned in the media on mortality back in February or so based on what was reported to be happening in Wuhan. If we take 0.2% that means around 500 cases per death. If there have been 2610 deaths after testing positive so far then it would be reasonable to expect there to have been over 1.3 million people in Scotland who have been infected at some point.

1.3 million people in Scotland already having had Covid wound presumably be good news.
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Noticed today the bbc reported that it was 11% positive of ALL tests carried out rather than new tests which was nearer 20% . Surely this is more accurate inany case because a positive test is a positive test, the fact that the same person has already had 10 negative ones in the past doesnt change that

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Latest from WHO is the IFR is probably > 0.2% in most locations:
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
...Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.
An order of magnitude down from the 2% figure that was generally being mentioned in the media on mortality back in February or so based on what was reported to be happening in Wuhan. If we take 0.2% that means around 500 cases per death. If there have been 2610 deaths after testing positive so far then it would be reasonable to expect there to have been over 1.3 million people in Scotland who have been infected at some point.


We also heard in February that the symptoms were awful even for those who were just recovering at home, theres no way 1.3 million people in Scotland have had a c**t of a c***s flu.

Nevertheless this virus is not dangerous because of its mortality rate or even it’s symptoms. It’s dangerous due to its sneakynes. Normally if one is suffering from a cold or flu they tend to stay away from those who they know catch everything going and end up very sick from it ( the elderly or vulnerable mostly) although personally i would still go my holidays on a plane unless i was too physically unwell to travel and i bet most of you would too so don’t lie ! it’s the long incubation period and asymptotic infectious nature of it that allows covid to get into every corner and find its way to those who will die from it. If it was just a case of contact = sick the next day then this would have went the way of swine flue and we’d be back at the football and the news would be all about brexit
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40 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

We also heard in February that the symptoms were awful even for those who were just recovering at home, theres no way 1.3 million people in Scotland have had a c**t of a c***s flu.

Since then we have learned that vast numbers of cases are either asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms especially among the younger generations. The symptoms are horrendous for people with comorbidities especially if they are very elderly but that's also the case with the flu every winter. If a vaccine that results in sterilising immunity can't be developed then COVID is probably always going to be around to a certain extent in much the same sort of way, unfortunately, but it doesn't seem to mutate as fast as the flu does so that should help on developing effective treatments for it.

50 minutes ago, Distant Doonhamer said:


1.3 million people in Scotland already having had Covid wound presumably be good news.

Yes, particularly if all the info that suggests that the herd immunity threshold could be much lower than 60% turns out to be accurate and immunity after infection lasts for a long time. The science on that is far from fully understood at this point though and nobody really knows for sure on the total number of infections.

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