welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Not sure there would have been any modelling on that because the assumption would probably have been in advance that a stringent lockdown stops it in its tracks by getting the R0 well under 1. If there is a vaccine soon, New Zealand, Taiwan etc will be the ones that will be in the history books as having got their response right. If there isn't because phase three trials identify a significant safety issue (there's a reason vaccines normally take many years to reach the market), the Swedes will probably get some credit for their judgement on the accuracy of the modelling with the important caveat that they messed up big time on care homes. Either way the UK's response will be remembered mainly as how not to do it. I haven't seen any evidence that Sweden's herd immunity is better than ours, and it's not surprising given that most people took the advice that was almost the same as that which we legally enforced. They closed all education for 16s and over, and pubs and restaurants were only allowed to stay open if they practiced strict social distancing. More people are still working from home there than here. Their economy isn't doing much better than their Scandinavian neighbours. I don't understand why people keep using Sweden as an example for the letting it go wild strategy. Edited October 19, 2020 by welshbairn 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, welshbairn said: I haven't seen any evidence that Sweden's herd immunity is better than ours, and it's not surprising given that most people took the advice that was almost the same as that which we legally enforced. They closed all education for 16s and over, and pubs and restaurants were only allowed to stay open if they practiced strict social distancing. More people are still working from home there than here. Their economy isn't doing much better than their Scandinavian neighbours. I don't understand why people keep Sweden as an example for the letting it go wild strategy. I get the impression you are emotionally invested in a particular outcome for political reasons and you are not looking at it in a dispassionate scientific manner. The reason people look to Sweden is because the data from there contradicted what was expected based on computer modelling. When that happens the rational thing to do is revisit and adjust your previous assumptions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Not sure there would have been any modelling on that because the assumption in advance would probably have been that a stringent lockdown stops it in its tracks by getting the R0 well under 1. If there is a vaccine soon, New Zealand, Taiwan etc will be the ones that will be in the history books as having got their response right. If there isn't because phase three trials identify a significant safety issue (there's a reason vaccines normally take many years to reach the market), the Swedes will probably get some credit for their judgement on the accuracy of the modelling with the important caveat that they messed up big time on care homes. Either way the UK's response will be remembered mainly as how not to do it. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiG_9rqlMHsAhXeSxUIHed_CnIQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd Page 13 has their modelled fatalities for different interventions and R0 values. Looks like, for the lockdown we had they were modelling anything from 6000 to 48000. The variable in range being the "on trigger" which they defined as how many icu beds were being used at the time of intervention (I think, I literally skimmed it) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30133-X/fulltext That's the model from the London School of Tropical medicine. Quote the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000–700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300–160 000) Obviously the papers don't include a lot of things we seem to know now regarding susceptibility, and the fact that the virus seems to be spread by a small number of super spreader rather than an even probability across all infectious cases... etc. Having said that they weren't a million miles away, on the face of it. Though they weren't exactly making precise stabs at it. Edited October 19, 2020 by renton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 The health dude in Sweden (Tuegell?) just today or yesterday suggesting that they haven't acquired nearly as much HI as previously thought 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: I get the impression you are emotionally invested in a particular outcome for political reasons and you are not looking at it in a dispassionate scientific manner. The reason people look to Sweden is because the data from there contradicted what was expected based on computer modelling. When that happens the rational thing to do is revisit and adjust your previous assumptions. I'd say the same back to you. You want Sweden to have followed a radically different course to their neighbours (they didn't) and that their outcomes to have been much better (they haven't). What might back up your case could be Belarus if the population followed the official vodka and sauna advice (which they probably didn't) and have inherited a healthy herd immunity as a result. I haven't got the figures unfortunately. Edited October 19, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeartsOfficialMoaner Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, madwullie said: The health dude in Sweden (Tuegell?) just today or yesterday suggesting that they haven't acquired nearly as much HI as previously thought But it only work if there is a vaccine? No vaccine, no herd immunity. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said: But it only work if there is a vaccine? No vaccine, no herd immunity. That's the way it's always worked till now anyway Edit: Sorry, I meant immunity, not herd immunity Edited October 19, 2020 by madwullie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Two thirds of people support tougher measures including another full lockdown. The ‘Heads Gone’ thread could get busy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I'd say the same back to you. You want Sweden to have followed a radically different course... Did you miss the post where I stated that New Zealand will be remembered in the history books as the ones who got it right, if there is a vaccine soon and also mentioned that Sweden messed up big time on care homes? Is that the posture of someone who wants Sweden to have done something or other to prove something or other for reasons of political zealotry or does it sound more like somebody who keeps an open mind on this stuff? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Two thirds of people support tougher measures including another full lockdown. The ‘Heads Gone’ thread could get busy. Boris wanted to go for herd immunity back when the Imperial College models were still in vogue and were suggesting that approach would result in overflowing morgues. Nicola can't do anything too radically divergent from Westminster on this without some of the reserved powers that Westminster still holds. Don't hold your breath on another March style lockdown being what happens. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Boris wanted to go for herd immunity back when the Imperial College models were still in vogue and were suggesting that approach would result in overflowing morgues. Nicola can't do anything too radically divergent from Westminster on this without some of the reserved powers that Westminster still holds. Don't hold your breath on another March style lockdown being what happens. I’m not holding my breath on anything, just ‘reporting the news’. However, looks like Wales are going their own way on lockdown. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Boris wanted to go for herd immunity back when the Imperial College models were still in vogue and were suggesting that approach would result in overflowing morgues. Nicola can't do anything too radically divergent from Westminster on this without some of the reserved powers that Westminster still holds. Don't hold your breath on another March style lockdown being what happens. Have you any evidence that overflowing morgues wouldn't have happened if we hadn't had a lockdown? Edited October 19, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, welshbairn said: Have you any evidence that overflowing morgues wouldn't have happened if we hadn't had a lockdown? Yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 week national lockdown for Ireland from Wednesday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honest_Man#1 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Yes Go for it then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Lockdown for Scotland? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Aldo Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Lockdown for Scotland?No. Ireland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said: 8 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said: Lockdown for Scotland? No. Ireland. Ders more to Ireland dan dis -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said: Lockdown for Scotland? Is he a right back? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said: Go for it then. Should be obvious what could be used as evidence for that and what welshbairn was fishing for. Manaus in Brazil would probably be the prime counter example that also needs to be taken into consideration as well, but is less similar to the UK than the obvious parallel that could be made. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/01/coronavirus-surge-in-brazil-brings-coffin-shortage-morgue-chaos/?gb=true Edited October 19, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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