madwullie Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 This is over as a public health crisis 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Irish government going to announce tonight that the Republic will move into a March-style lockdown. Only difference will be the schools will remain open. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, G51 said: Irish government going to announce tonight that the Republic will move into a March-style lockdown. Only difference will be the schools will remain open. Jaffa meltdown incoming... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Chairman Mao said: "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." "And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth." George Orwell, 1984 Damn bro why haven't more people heard of this Orwell guy??? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, NotThePars said: Damn bro why haven't more people heard of this Orwell guy??? The state decreed that he didn't exist. Obviously. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, renton said: The state decreed that he didn't exist. Obviously. What state's this? It sounds dope. Orwell is shit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, madwullie said: This is over as a public health crisis Not my words Michael, the words of @Todd_is_God 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_Wilkos Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said: What could a Scotland lockdown be called? #Jockdown 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiGi Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said: Hate the term 'firebreak' already and it's the first time I've seen it. What could a Scotland lockdown be called? 8 minutes ago, Steve_Wilkos said: #Jockdown Hotel Caledonia. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 hours ago, Chairman Mao said: Interesting article from 15 April https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133v1 "Our model for Sweden shows that, under conservative epidemiological parameter estimates, the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000..." ...didn't pan out that way (the whole Dyson ventilator saga happened because computer modelling also proved to be similarly inaccurate in a UK context), which is one of the many pieces of evidence that have demonstrated that the IFR is about an order of magnitude lower than was originally feared. Many people haven't adjusted their fear level accordingly though and still seem to be expecting something like what happened with the 1918 Spanish Flu to unfold despite what ultimately unfolded in Sweden. 27 minutes ago, G51 said: Irish government going to announce tonight that the Republic will move into a March-style lockdown. Only difference will be the schools will remain open. If true, like New Zealand they better hope there is a vaccine soon, because otherwise all that happens the next time they try to open up is another big wave of infections to finish off the epidemic. There is no easy painless way out in the absence of a vaccine because you have to reach herd immunity one way or the other to be able to exit from this ongoing crisis. A lot of people seem to be naively optimistic on how easy it is to develop a vaccine for a coronavirus. Could happen in a time frame of months, but it's no sure thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said: ...didn't pan out that way (the whole Dyson ventilator saga happened because computer modelling also proved to be similarly inaccurate in a UK context), which is one of the many pieces of evidence that have demonstrated that the IFR is about an order of magnitude lower than was originally feared. Many people haven't adjusted their fear level accordingly though and still seem to be expecting something like what happened with the 1918 Spanish Flu to unfold despite what ultimately unfolded in Sweden. If true, like New Zealand they better hope there is a vaccine soon, because otherwise all that happens the next time they try to open up is another big wave of infections to finish off the epidemic. There is no easy painless way out in the absence of a vaccine because you have to reach herd immunity one way or the other to be able to exit from this ongoing crisis. A lot of people seem to be naively optimistic on how easy it is to develop a vaccine for a coronavirus. Could happen in a time frame of months, but it's no sure thing. Barclays Investment Bank reckoned there was an 85% chance of at least three vaccines being approved for use by Christmas. So it's probably a gamble worth taking. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA Baracus Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 10 hours ago, ICTChris said: Covid on campus - Scottish universities operated halls at100% capacity and changes advice on attending at the last minute. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-54575788?__twitter_impression=true The ones that didn't reply probably didn't do so because they're operating at 100%. I have seen first hand some figures regarding the spread in a couple of halls. It's certainly 'doing the rounds'. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, G51 said: Barclays Investment Bank reckoned there was an 85% chance of at least three vaccines being approved for use by Christmas. So it's probably a gamble worth taking. I would be more encouraged if we were hearing that from medical experts from the WHO etc rather than from financial people who are probably more interested in the share prices and profits of the pharmaceutical companies involved. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, GiGi said: Hotel Caledonia. Bidey in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: I would be more encouraged if we were hearing that from medical experts from the WHO etc rather than from financial people who are probably more interested in the share prices and profits of the pharmaceutical companies involved. But they're not going to come out and say that. It's all the information that we've got to go on. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: ..didn't pan out that way (the whole Dyson ventilator saga happened because computer modelling also proved to be similarly inaccurate in a UK context), which is one of the many pieces of evidence that have demonstrated that the IFR is about an order of magnitude lower than was originally feared. Many people haven't adjusted their fear level accordingly though and still seem to be expecting something like what happened with the 1918 Spanish Flu to unfold despite what ultimately unfolded in Sweden. Could be that people abided by the lockdown restrictions and advice better than the modelling predicted, in Sweden as well as here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Could be that people abided by the lockdown restrictions and advice better than the modelling predicted, in Sweden as well as here. The main problem with the modelling was that the IFR values that were assumed were higher than what has subsequently proven to be the case in reality. The Swedes were skeptical, which is one of the reasons they steered in a different direction: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: The main problem with the modelling was that the IFR values that were assumed were higher than what has subsequently proven to be the case in reality. The Swedes were skeptical, which is one of the reasons they steered in a different direction: Were the predicted deaths under a full lockdown that much different from what happened? Too lazy to dig out the old model. Everyone remembers the half million figure if we did nothing, but they had a series of predictions depending on behavioural modifications. Edited October 19, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Were the predicted deaths under a full lockdown that much different from what happened? Too lazy to dig out the old model. Not sure there would have been any modelling on that because the assumption in advance would probably have been that a stringent lockdown stops it in its tracks by getting the R0 well under 1. If there is a vaccine soon, New Zealand, Taiwan etc will be the ones that will be in the history books as having got their response right. If there isn't because phase three trials identify a significant safety issue (there's a reason vaccines normally take many years to reach the market), the Swedes will probably get some credit for their judgement on the accuracy of the modelling with the important caveat that they messed up big time on care homes. Either way the UK's response will be remembered mainly as how not to do it. Edited October 19, 2020 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 hours ago, Chairman Mao said: "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." "And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth." George Orwell, 1984 That could apply to 1953 and some ones coronation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.