Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, East Calder Lion said:

These figures are out of date and do not apply to Scotland.  Yesterday the Scottish Government released an evidence paper showing data gathered through the test and tracing process which is probably much more accurate than the above.  It shows over 20% of those tested positive reported having visited a hospitality venue within the previous seven days.

Erm yes, but what percentage of the total Scottish population would similarly report visiting a bar, restaurant or indeed cafe at least once in the previous seven days? This is just a massive red herring that you get when Test and Trace spot 'pub!' and join dots that do not necessarily exist. If they could identify hospitality as forming 20% of verifiable case clusters then they'd publish that evidence: but they clearly can't, which is why we get this statistical nonsense being peddled instead.

Presumably they'll be enlightening us as to how many positive cases listed schools and universities visited in the previous week in due course.

[ICTChris]

Everyone is getting pretty heated, here's a nice cheery article to calm us all down

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext

 

[Szamo's_Ammo]

29 minutes ago, Snafu said:

Meanwhile chef Nick Nairn tells our FM to shut schools, not bars and restaurants.

Nick Nairn tells Nicola Sturgeon 'shut schools not restaurants' to stem coronavirus

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/nick-nairn-tells-nicola-sturgeon-22809753

Wasn't going to bother reading that one but he makes a couple of good points: 

Quote

“I think what will do some good is the schools shutting for a week and you might see a fall in figures but that’ll probably be misrepresented.”

 

Quote

"I’d like to see some really good science. I would like to see people put their finger on exactly where this infection is coming from.

“The First Minister quoted a figure saying 20 per cent of people who had got Covid had been in restaurants.

“I bet you all of them had been in retail situations like supermarkets - so that is a really meaningless statistic.”

I don't think anyone would disagree that the paper released by the Scottish government yesterday was a joke and intentionally misleading in order to help them reach the "shut hospitality" sticking plaster conclusion from the start.

We won't know where infections are coming from in terms of hard data until there is mass testing of the whole population as the majority of people with the virus are asymptomatic.

Edited October 8, 2020 by Szamo's_Ammo

[Bairnardo]

NAP Nick Nairn's restaurant will have terrible flexible working arrangements for employees with kids.

That's ok though because he can simply fire people for having children and instantly replace them with anyone emptied from Frankie and Bennys.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

A new record.

How has this been allowed to happen after the cases were so low a couple of months ago?

Westminster still waiting until Monday before introducing new restrictions for the north of England.

[Marshmallo]

5 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

18 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

NAP Nick Nairn's restaurant will have terrible flexible working arrangements for employees with kids.

That's ok though because he can simply fire people for having children and instantly replace them with anyone emptied from Frankie and Bennys.

Disgusting post

[ICTChris]

6 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

We won't know where infections are coming from in terms of hard data until there is mass testing of the whole population as the majority of people with the virus are asymptomatic.

I'd be interested to know how many infections we know the origin of.  Aside from big outbreaks in confined areas, like everyone getting it in a student hall or a care home, it seems very difficult to pinpoint where people get the virus.  Obviously it can be easier to put in an educated guess in some circumstances.

[Marshmallo]

 

Absolutely buckled at this 

[Mad Capsule]

.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The refusal to use airport/port testing on arrival in the UK is a fucking disgrace, and is nothing more than a political decision in reaction to the flak that Johnson got back in March and April.
Plenty of other countries....with lower covid-19 rates than the UK.....are keeping their borders open by using testing before and/or after arrival.
The UK flatly refuses to countenance this. Fucking arseholes. 

Italy have now introduced testing at major airports - completely free.

[Clockwork]

 
Absolutely buckled at this 

And to think he gets paid almost 400 grand a year by the BBC to pull that sort of stunt. Jeezus.[emoji849]

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

The vaccine that is being rushed through won’t stop transmission of the virus, it won’t stop people getting it or testing positive and it won’t be very effective in the vulnerable.

In other words, the vaccine is pointless. 

Which one? There are 11 in phase 3 trials at the moment.

[doulikefish]

32 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

4 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The refusal to use airport/port testing on arrival in the UK is a fucking disgrace, and is nothing more than a political decision in reaction to the flak that Johnson got back in March and April.
Plenty of other countries....with lower covid-19 rates than the UK.....are keeping their borders open by using testing before and/or after arrival.
The UK flatly refuses to countenance this. Fucking arseholes. 

Italy have now introduced testing at major airports - completely free.

Been doing it for a couple of months if you arrive from a country classed as "red" 

[ICTChris]

37 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

 

Absolutely buckled at this 

More top quality pandemic journalism.

There's something going on with this sort of thing that says something about our society.  The guy coming out that shop who has now been shouted at and shamed on national television had a mask with him, he probably just forgot to put it on - it's easily done, we've never had to wear masks to go into a shop before.  It's totally understandable that some people would forget to wear masks sometimes - I went into the  gym without one the other day and had to go back out to the car to get it.  There's a lack of empathy and understanding about this sort of thing, you see it at a lwoer level with people sharing that meme about masks worn below the nose being like having your cock out.  Some people might find wearing them uncomfortable or the mask might've slipped down without them noticiing.  A large chunk of people seem to want to believe the worst about their fellow citizens and don't want to show any understanding.

It goes back to the people seeing Covid restrictions as based on some sort of moral code - grouse shooting bad, choir practice good, hench, T drinking football lads bad, tea drinking introverts good.

[G51]

12 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

The vaccine that is being rushed through won’t stop transmission of the virus, it won’t stop people getting it or testing positive and it won’t be very effective in the vulnerable.

In other words, the vaccine is pointless. 

The vaccine is the route to herd immunity. Herd immunity is the likeliest way we get back to normal. Given that in human history, herd immunity has never been achieved through natural infections, you see why it's so important.

The other way we can get back to normal is if they develop and mass produce a treatment for COVID that can be administered at home. But they're a piece away from that yet.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 minute ago, ICTChris said:

More top quality pandemic journalism.

There's something going on with this sort of thing that says something about our society.  The guy coming out that shop who has now been shouted at and shamed on national television had a mask with him, he probably just forgot to put it on - it's easily done, we've never had to wear masks to go into a shop before.  It's totally understandable that some people would forget to wear masks sometimes - I went into the  gym without one the other day and had to go back out to the car to get it.  There's a lack of empathy and understanding about this sort of thing, you see it at a lwoer level with people sharing that meme about masks worn below the nose being like having your cock out.  Some people might find wearing them uncomfortable or the mask might've slipped down without them noticiing.  A large chunk of people seem to want to believe the worst about their fellow citizens and don't want to show any understanding.

To be fair, its been nearly 7 months. You would think folk would kind of get it now.

 

[Michael W]

42 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

 

Absolutely buckled at this 

Shouting at a man actually wearing one when the viewer sees him. What a country. 

Shame he didn't lamp him. 

[ICTChris]

Just now, Melanius Mullarkey said:

To be fair, its been nearly 7 months. You would think folk would kind of get it now.

Face masks have been compulsory in Northern Irish shops since 10th August.

Even so, my dad used to forget to put his seatbelt on all the time in the car and that became law in 1982 or sometime around then.  People get stuck in their ways. 

I think people should wear masks and it's important but I think a lot of people just want to use it as an excuse to rail against people, mostly online but also in real life as Nolan showed. 

To be fair, a few years ago if a fat guy from the Shankill wearing a mask started shouting at you, you had worse things to worry about than being shamed on TV so maybe it's progress.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Durand Durand line said:

Secondary pupils should be masked up from the minute they walk through the gates to the moment they return home.    It has to become part of the uniform.   No mask and you don't get it.    If every other sector of society can wear a mask I'm sure the wee spoiled fuckers can put one on.   Christ, many of they will have weekend jobs where they mask up for 7 hours straight.   The sooner Nicola stops telling us 'How particularly hard' it's been for young people and gets them whipped into shape the better.   

They should introduce National Service for any kid over seven.  Let them see just how lucky they are.

Maybe pick a fight with another nation to give them a taste of combat so they can appreciate life more.  It’s been a while since we’ve had a scrap with Germany.

 

[renton]

52 minutes ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Wasn't going to bother reading that one but he makes a couple of good points: 

 

I don't think anyone would disagree that the paper released by the Scottish government yesterday was a joke and intentionally misleading in order to help them reach the "shut hospitality" sticking plaster conclusion from the start.

We won't know where infections are coming from in terms of hard data until there is mass testing of the whole population as the majority of people with the virus are asymptomatic.

Didn't she also say that supermarkets and retail was returning to one way systems and 2M distancing as well? So it's not like they aren't thinking in terms of trying to minimise certain risks in those settings as well.

Track and Trace of course should provide good data on index cases and their settings. However, if the vast majority of infections are asymptomatic, and asymptomatic cases are as infectious as symptomatic case, then track and trace as currently formulated is never going to work. 

Which, either with or without a vaccine leaves us with three broad strategies:

1) as just now, open up with targeted,  variable restrictions and rolling lockdowns. The virus will continue to spiral but will be controlled and braked periodically. 

2) mass, regular testing. Test huge tracts of the population on at least a weekly cadence. Much more chance of catching and controlling infections before they form clusters.

3) open up but with targeted shielding for vulnerable groups and hope they can cope. 

Option 1 is obviously where we currently are, but is likely to not be economically sustainable in the long term: Particularly if immunity proves to be short lived. If you could guarantee immunity long enough to last between waves so that each wave had a smaller susceptible population, you could probably make that work.

Option 2 and 3 both come with huge capital costs. Option 2 because you obviously need to expand testing into the millions per day with quick turnaround times, and a vast and comprehensive reporting network.

Option 3 because in order to avoid the moral cost of simply leaving vulnerable people to shield as best they can, and inevitably die due to the rest of society having a large prevelance of the virus, then you are gonna need a huge, meals on wheels type exercise to keep those groups in some type of dignity while they are lopped off from society.

It's a bit of a c**t whichever way you cut it. I'd favour option 2 from a purely diagnostic  point of view, but whether it's a practical proposition is another question.