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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

All that means is that they understand how an exponential equation works using secondary school level mathematics. A lot of people were exposed the first time around in March/April so there are significantly fewer susceptible people available to keep the increase going for so long this time. They expect it to peak and drop naturally at some point on that basis and will claim that it was their additional measures that made the difference even though it was always going to happen anyway once herd immunity starts to unfold.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd psyched myself up for two weeks (and three weekends) off, not two weeks of smashing my head against a brick wall trying to get the people of Inverness to follow a new set of rules I1HSXNh.png

Are you the one sticking pointless traffic cones all around the castle?

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30 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Wow, just been told that if we have the track trace app then we should switch off Bluetooth at work.

How are they trying to justify that? How would they even know if you did/didn’t? Tell them to f**k off (though probably not in those words).

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2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Can anyone say why the rates in places with the increase restrictions have continued to rise? The North of England has had hugely increased rates since the local lockdown came in. Rates in Glasgow haven’t been affected by the measures there.

It may well be general compliance to the rules, but the Scottish Gov evidence paper - which is by no means watertight in terms of methodology - suggests that infections  due to family or friends gatherings (i.e. indoor socialising) has dropped since those restrictions went in. 

On the other hand infections from hospitality have continued at the same level or slightly increased, and then there was the huge increase due to Uni Student halls.

It may well be a timing thing, I.e. cases were starting to plateau at the very least before the students came back, which just was a shot in the arm, so to speak, for the virus.

It may also be that compliance around isolation is not as rigorous as you might like.

It may still be a massive undetected prevelance in our school system.

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18 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

All that means is that they understand how an exponential equation works using secondary school level mathematics. A lot of people were exposed the first time around in March/April so there are significantly fewer susceptible people available to keep the increase going for so long this time. They expect it to peak and drop naturally at some point on that basis and will claim that it was their additional measures that made the difference even though it was always going to happen anyway once herd immunity starts to unfold.

Well, I guess the thing is we don't know how long immunity lasts, and at the same time wasn't the seroprevelance in the UK generally only about 5-6%? Then again that measures antibodies, so might miss immunity due to other factors (T-Cells etc.) 

Herd immunity might be anything from 20 to 60% depending on who's methodology you use.

I suspect this break might be an opportunity to try and reduce mixing while the Uni hall infections burn themselves out. Then try and drag down infection rates by continuing a ban on indoor socialising for at least a month after that.

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