Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Thereisalight..]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

Well, none of the things you mentioned are communicable diseases. 

We could have spent our lives having these restrictions for the cold and flu so we didn’t kill the elderly/folk with underlying health conditions off but we never have done. What’s so different with covid?

[renton]

Just now, Thereisalight.. said:

We could have spent our lives having these restrictions for the cold and flu so we didn’t kill the elderly/folk with underlying health conditions off but we never have done. What’s so different with covid?

The particulars of the virus. I mean, if you had the flu, you wouldn't go around coughing on old people with pneumonia, with this the lengthy incubation period and asymptomatic infection are two nasty features, alongside it's increased lethality vs. Your average flu that pretty much prevent the usual individual response of staying at home once you have symptoms to get better and reduce infections in others.

 

[Todd_is_God]

https://www.despecialist.eu/nl/opinies/al187-artsen-uiten-bezorgdheid-aanpak-uitbraak-sars-cov-2-in-open-brief.html

More than 200 Belgian doctors sign a letter raising concerns about the handling of the pandemic, and call for the removal of all restrictions.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

https://www.despecialist.eu/nl/opinies/al187-artsen-uiten-bezorgdheid-aanpak-uitbraak-sars-cov-2-in-open-brief.html

More than 200 Belgian doctors sign a letter raising concerns about the handling of the pandemic, and call for the removal of all restrictions.

200 out of how many doctors? 

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, renton said:

What about all those seat belts, speed limits and road signs?

Of all on the list only the road accident example includes a direct community element, and we actually do put in place restrictions and regulations to try and prevent them.

The equivalent disproportionate response to road accident deaths would be to allow travel only in lanes 1 and 3 on motorways, and reduce speed limits universally to 30 mph.

11 minutes ago, renton said:

The particulars of the virus. I mean, if you had the flu, you wouldn't go around coughing on old people with pneumonia, with this the lengthy incubation period and asymptomatic infection are two nasty features, alongside it's increased lethality vs. Your average flu that pretty much prevent the usual individual response of staying at home once you have symptoms to get better and reduce infections in others.

Apart from the ~75% of flu cases that are asymptomatic / generate only extremely mild symptoms?

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

200 out of how many doctors? 

Irrelevant

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

There are many reasons why, in times of war, governments do not publish casualty figures. One of them being that statistics create fear.

Yet today, we have daily....almost hourly...reports on the number of positive test, hospitilisations, and deaths. 

With none of these reports putting the statistics into context. '341 new positive tests today', and the whole country gasps in front of the TV.....yet none of the reports explain the percentage of positive tests amongst overall testing, the ages of those contracting the virus, and most importantly the percentage of these positive tests leading to IC treatment or death (almost none).

I'll guarantee you that if there was a daily news broadcast detailing the number of casualties involving cars...'and today there were 6 people killed on our roads, 12 knocked down, and 3500 involved in minor accidents'....within a month people would stop driving cars and would be terrified crossing roads.

The world is completely fucked up. People are like, weird.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Irrelevant

Why?

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Bob Mahelp said:

There are many reasons why, in times of war, governments do not publish casualty figures. One of them being that statistics create fear.

Yet today, we have daily....almost hourly...reports on the number of positive test, hospitilisations, and deaths. 

With none of these reports putting the statistics into context. '341 new positive tests today', and the whole country gasps in front of the TV.....yet none of the reports explain the percentage of positive tests amongst overall testing, the ages of those contracting the virus, and most importantly the percentage of these positive tests leading to IC treatment or death (almost none).

I'll guarantee you that if there was a daily news broadcast detailing the number of casualties involving cars...'and today there were 6 people killed on our roads, 12 knocked down, and 3500 involved in minor accidents'....within a month people would stop driving cars and would be terrified crossing roads.

The world is completely fucked up. People are like, weird.

When covid is finished we should do the daily updates over the following winter flu season, with the exact same stats and format, and do contact tracing / PCR testing at up to 45 cycles for for flu.

Just to highlight how ridiculous the reaction to this has been.

[renton]

17 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

There are many reasons why, in times of war, governments do not publish casualty figures. One of them being that statistics create fear.

Yet today, we have daily....almost hourly...reports on the number of positive test, hospitilisations, and deaths. 

With none of these reports putting the statistics into context. '341 new positive tests today', and the whole country gasps in front of the TV.....yet none of the reports explain the percentage of positive tests amongst overall testing, the ages of those contracting the virus, and most importantly the percentage of these positive tests leading to IC treatment or death (almost none).

I'll guarantee you that if there was a daily news broadcast detailing the number of casualties involving cars...'and today there were 6 people killed on our roads, 12 knocked down, and 3500 involved in minor accidents'....within a month people would stop driving cars and would be terrified crossing roads.

The world is completely fucked up. People are like, weird.

all of that is published daily.

[anotherchance]

I asked the question a few weeks ago..'what is the government's exit strategy?'....and I was told the answer is 'a vaccine'. 
If that's true, then governments everywhere will be putting enormous pressure on pharmaceutical companies to come up with something, and undoubtedly the pressure will be on approving agencies to give these vaccines the green light ASAP.
One thing's for sure, there's only so much in the way of restrictions and lockdowns that people can take. People have put up with lockdown for 6 months on the belief that it was absolutely and would lead to better things......I seriously doubt that another 6 months of life being turned upside down is feasible. 

Get the sense that effective treatments (which ultimately make the virus less lethal) are going to be the answer in the short/medium term in advance of a vaccine.

There’s already a couple been discovered, one of which is cheap and widely available - so the virus already is less dangerous than it was in March. You’d imagine by the time the vaccine comes there’ll be more, so as has been mentioned, by the time the vaccine comes we might not need it to the extent we appear to now.

If current spikes in cases continue not to result in much higher death rates, is there a point where governments accept that the treatments are of an acceptable level to ease off at least some the restrictions for good?

[Billy Jean King]

Interesting that Ireland have today adopted a 'Living with Covid Plan'. 

It's grim reading there on the Racing Post site. Their equivalent of our phase 4 is level 1 (of 5, very Irish). At that level of least restrictions crowds would be limited to 500 for at least 6 months. Bang goes my trip to Leopardstown in February although you currently cant enter RoI without quarantine from UK.

[bendan]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

all of that is published daily.

.. and generally ignored by the media.

[madwullie]

1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

5 hours ago, Steven W said:

Interesting that Ireland have today adopted a 'Living with Covid Plan'. 

It's grim reading there on the Racing Post site. Their equivalent of our phase 4 is level 1 (of 5, very Irish). At that level of least restrictions crowds would be limited to 500 for at least 6 months. Bang goes my trip to Leopardstown in February although you currently cant enter RoI without quarantine from UK.

But can they have choons on in the pub?? 

[renton]

34 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The equivalent disproportionate response to road accident deaths would be to allow travel only in lanes 1 and 3 on motorways, and reduce speed limits universally to 30 mph.

Apart from the ~75% of flu cases that are asymptomatic / generate only extremely mild symptoms?

There is an interesting point here that Flu deaths are apparently estimated, actual counted deaths for Flu tend to be far lower: https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm#deaths

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

If you only used Flu deaths where it was identified as a primary cause, so bringing the methodology in line with the daily Covid death stats, it dramatically changes the relative burden of both diseases.

Edited September 15, 2020 by renton

[renton]

2 minutes ago, bendan said:

.. and generally ignored by the media.

True, but not like you can blame the Government for not being open about it.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, anotherchance said:

If current spikes in cases continue not to result in much higher death rates, is there a point where governments accept that the treatments are of an acceptable level to ease off at least some the restrictions for good?

 

I think for that to happen, there will need to be some sustained coverage and pressure from the media.

People are still scared in general as the majority of the media coverage is centred on it being still really dangerous.

There really isn't any scope for deaths to go down in Scotland, but if those in hospital drop to, say, below 20, then you would like to think this would change.

Problem is, people see the reduction in hospital numbers one of two ways - 1 - the SG is fudging the numbers to look better than England, or 2 - Ah but it just means they have been in longer than 28 days, (as now apparantly most people spend more than 28 days in hospital with covid), rather than what it really is - an overdue correction of a poorly designed reporting system.

[Thereisalight..]

Has there been any word on the football test events? Did the fans sitting with masks on and not singing/shouting get the Governments seal of approval to allow others to happen ?  

Edited September 15, 2020 by Thereisalight..

[Billy Jean King]

But can they have choons on in the pub?? 

AFAIK indoor pub settings that don't serve food remain closed in both RoI and NI. Another example of us being nowhere near the most restrictive nation in Europe. There is a indicative opening date of next Monday finally in NI not sure in RoI.

[Todd_is_God]

20 minutes ago, renton said:

There is an interesting point here that Flu deaths are apparently estimated, actual counted deaths for Flu tend to be far lower: https://www.bmj.com/content/361/bmj.k2795/rr-6

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm#deaths

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

If you only used Flu deaths where it was identified as a primary cause, so bringing the methodology in line with the daily Covid death stats, it dramatically changes the relative burden of both diseases.

My point wasn't really about the number of deaths, it was about the number of cases.

Unless you are really quite ill, you aren't really going to get tested for flu to get confirmation that you have it, nor, like covid, do you need to be tested to be diagnosed.

If everyone who fell ill with even the slightest flu symptom got tested, and we then contact traced and tested the close contacts of any and all positives (symptomatic or not), we'd have very high numbers of cases to report as well.

And if you happen to end up in hospital within 28 days of a positive test? You can see how that would add up as well.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Todd_is_God