tarapoa Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, JTS98 said: We also don't know what the consequences will be of the lifting of the limits on freedoms in China. They may well find they have just delayed another spike. We won't know for a few weeks. Maybe they are looking to delay it until the hot and sticky weather starts, which is likely to be April/May in most of China. By all accounts is going to be the best bet in eradicating this thing until the vaccine is unearthed. Just stay off the bat satay this time lads. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Because it’s impossible to lock everyone away for a month. Not if they bring in the army. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JTS98 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, tarapoa said: Maybe they are looking to delay it until the hot and sticky weather starts, which is likely to be April/May in most of China. By all accounts is going to be the best bet in eradicating this thing until the vaccine is unearthed. Just stay off the bat satay this time lads. Aye, that might be it. There may be something in the hope that hot and humid weather helps to contain this. That said, Malaysia has seen a sudden spike so maybe not. Waiting game, really. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, GordonS said: Which epidemiologists? Aye, which school did they go to? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, tarapoa said: Maybe they are looking to delay it until the hot and sticky weather starts, which is likely to be April/May in most of China. By all accounts is going to be the best bet in eradicating this thing until the vaccine is unearthed. Just stay off the bat satay this time lads. They are gradually lifting restrictions in China. If it doesn't flare up again, that would make our strategy look a bit shite. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, tarapoa said: Just stay off the bat satay this time lads. Actually, it's 'crispy hoisin bat'.........(copyright Throbber) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: If I get stuck in a hospital bed I hope I’m not next to you. I'm actually feeling quite optimistic this morning !! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Aye, which school did they go to? My reason for asking is that I've seen people described as epidemiologists just because they're doctors, when the disciplines are very different. Doctors are to epidemiology as electrical engineers are to town planning. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 This video, retweeted by yer man Jason Leitch, is an explanation of the approach being taken by the four Chief Medical Officers in the UK: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) Jason Leitch on Off The Ball. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/scotland/51892264 Edited March 16, 2020 by Florentine_Pogen 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 22 minutes ago, GordonS said: Which epidemiologists? I heard this in the Scottish News this morning, apparently the "herd immunity" plan is a UK Gov plan and NOT a plan that the Scottish Government either agree with or are willing to go along with. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, GordonS said: My reason for asking is that I've seen people described as epidemiologists just because they're doctors, when the disciplines are very different. Doctors are to epidemiology as electrical engineers are to town planning. That certainly doesn't fill me with confidence regarding doctors. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said: Why would it lead to a big spike later? I don't get this. Surely the virus can only last a few weeks at the most until you either get better or get dead. So if everyone locks themselves away for a month... virus goes? Isn't it the thing that you just can't have a total and comprehensive quarantine of an entire population like that? even if 80% of the population could stay inside their homes, you'll need people providing essential services. Food needs delivered, health/police/fire service etc, the electricity network needs to keep going. So you'll still see some small levels of transmission of the virus. Maybe only a couple of hundred people have it by the time the quarantine ends. Then, when everyone re-emerges, it'll just run riot again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, GordonS said: This video, retweeted by yer man Jason Leitch, is an explanation of the approach being taken by the four Chief Medical Officers in the UK: Been posted before, it's very good. Doesn't really explain how they're going to suddenly cut down the infection rate when the hospitals reach peak capacity, ignoring WHO guidelines to ruthlessly carry on containment measures to flatten the curve and add to the delay efforts. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 12 hours ago, Snafu said: Let us know tomorrow how you are. Hope your temperature gets back to normal by then. Woke up this morning. No temperature. Feel absolutely fine Thank f**k I didn't go to hospital as I imagine I'd be stuck there.now for the foreseeable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, GordonS said: This video, retweeted by yer man Jason Leitch, is an explanation of the approach being taken by the four Chief Medical Officers in the UK: I’m not sure I trust a health system that is still using Leitchs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: Been posted before, it's very good. Doesn't really explain how they're going to suddenly cut down the infection rate when the hospitals reach peak capacity, ignoring WHO guidelines to ruthlessly carry on containment measures to flatten the curve and add to the delay efforts. They'll shut schools, unis, colleges, pubs and restaurants, advise against travelling to a workplace if it can be avoided; everything people are calling for now. Different countries have different social structures, cultures, behavioural patterns and capacity in their healthcare systems. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florentine_Pogen Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Over-70s asked to 'stay at home' should get more family contact, not less, says Scottish health chief Echoing a point made by Grant Shapps in his Today interview this morning (see 9.20am), Prof Jason Leitch, the Scottish government’s national clinical director, told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland today that the government advice to the over-70s, which is due soon, would not include telling them to cut off all contact with others. They should have more family contact, not less, he said. And, even though this has been characterised as people being asked to stay at home, he said that people would not have to stay at home all the time: He explained: We will almost certainly, as a four-country UK, we will move to a position in the next few weeks where we will ask those groups [the over-70s and those with pre-existing conditions] to not stay at home in the social isolation way that we are telling the symptomatic to do so, but to reduce their social contact. It might be mosques, it might be churches, it might be bingo ... and pubs [that people have to avoid]. What we are not suggesting, unlike those with symptoms, is that those people would cut off family contact and not be able to receive visitors. In fact, quite the opposite, we expect family contact to increase in that group so that those people will be looked after. The last thing that we want is four months of loneliness. They are not going to be asked to stay at home, they are going to be asked to reduce social contact and to be careful and to use common sense. There has been a lot of confusion about the ‘stay at home’ advice because in interviews about the proposal yesterday, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and people interviewing him referred to staying at home as self-isolating. Some people use the phrase in this way, but the term has also been used to apply to a much stricter, no-contact regime meant to be followed by people with coronavirus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Been posted before, it's very good. Doesn't really explain how they're going to suddenly cut down the infection rate when the hospitals reach peak capacity, ignoring WHO guidelines to ruthlessly carry on containment measures to flatten the curve and add to the delay efforts. I think they are trying to delay a peak until they have greater capacity for handling it. They just don’t want to come out and say that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, GordonS said: They'll shut schools, unis, colleges, pubs and restaurants, advise against travelling to a workplace if it can be avoided; everything people are calling for now. Different countries have different social structures, cultures, behavioural patterns and capacity in their healthcare systems. And if that takes a while to turn off the tap the half bottle will be be overflowing, ie. the NHS swamped before severe control measures are put into action. Seems to me that it would be better to follow the example of the likes of Singapore and WHO advice at least until we actually have the capacity to manufacture new ventilators and more people trained to operate them. And maybe even getting closer to antiviral drugs being developed. Edited March 16, 2020 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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