Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

That's still a huge number of new cases. I guess the argument is that we're going to be much more able to control the rises that occur in winter, whereas England might struggle to keep it contained.

And we will be utterly helpless and exposed to England and whichever countries England allow in throughout, which should be factored into the drive for elimination at the continuing expense of jobs and normality for folk. 

 

We could drive covid out of Scotland entirely by August, then see Trump tell Boris that Americans are to be allowed back and hey presto, we go back to square one. As has been said numerous times, elimination of the virus is a nonsense pipe dream when it's not shared by the much bigger country that is connected to us with no controls. 

[pandarilla]

Why does winter automatically mean its coming back btw?
I've never understood how people who haven't been able to predict almost anything correctly so far can be so certain what is going to happen in 5 months.

I presume you mean them and not me? I'm certainly not saying anything will definitely happen.

And we will be utterly helpless and exposed to England and whichever countries England allow in throughout, which should be factored into the drive for elimination at the continuing expense of jobs and normality for folk. 
 
We could drive covid out of Scotland entirely by August, then see Trump tell Boris that Americans are to be allowed back and hey presto, we go back to square one. As has been said numerous times, elimination of the virus is a nonsense pipe dream when it's not shared by the much bigger country that is connected to us with no controls. 

I think you could be right - has this point been put to sturgeon?

Presumably if we can control it better we might still be able to avoid returning to a complete lockdown.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

I presume you mean them and not me? I'm certainly not saying anything will definitely happen.

Yes, sorry

[vikingTON]

8 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

And we will be utterly helpless and exposed to England and whichever countries England allow in throughout, which should be factored into the drive for elimination at the continuing expense of jobs and normality for folk. 

 

We could drive covid out of Scotland entirely by August, then see Trump tell Boris that Americans are to be allowed back and hey presto, we go back to square one. As has been said numerous times, elimination of the virus is a nonsense pipe dream when it's not shared by the much bigger country that is connected to us with no controls. 

I'm swithering on this in the sense that if Scotland is at least able to effectively identify, contact-trace and stamp out the smaller clusters for a few weeks or even months like it did in the Borders' bumpkins case then that wouldn't actually be a bad holding position to be in at all. Obviously that's unlikely to be sustainable in the long term though.

I'm really not sure what obvious jobs are left to be 'saved' by moving between phase 3 and 4 as well:  certainly the hospitality and service sectors are already going to sink or swim regardless from 15 July. Most of the heavy lifting on that front looks to be done for now.

Edited July 9, 2020 by vikingTON

[mizfit]

I guess the argument is that we're going to be much more able to control the rises that occur in winter, whereas England might struggle to keep it contained.

0 Deaths and 3 New cases in NI.
2 Deaths and 16 new cases in Wales.
0 Deaths and 6 new cases in Scotland.

England has no control on it.

[sparky88]

19 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why does winter automatically mean its coming back btw?

I've never understood how people who haven't been able to predict almost anything correctly so far can be so certain what is going to happen in 5 months.

I suppose the issue with winter is that a) flu will be around which already stretches the NHS to breaking point, and b) lots of people will have similar symptoms to covid which might put a strain on testing capacity. 

I'm sure studies have been done to show that in China, prevalence of the virus in warm and cooler climates is similar. Unless more work has been done since?

Is there a reason why we can't just vaccinate against flu on a mass scale, thus meaning there will be fewer people with flu in hospitals in the winter which should help capacity to deal with COVID?

Edited July 9, 2020 by sparky88

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, virginton said:

I'm swithering on this in the sense that if Scotland is at least able to effectively identify, contact-trace and stamp out the smaller clusters for a few weeks or even months like it did in the Borders' bumpkins case then that wouldn't be a bad situation to be in at all. That's not going to be sustainable in the long term of course.

I'm really not sure what obvious jobs are left to be 'saved' by moving between phase 3 and 4 though:  certainly the hospitality and service sectors are already going to sink or swim regardless from 15 July. Most of the heavy lifting looks to be done for now.

Aye, purely from a virus perspective its obviously a good place to be. But come August when (its realistic to assume for the sake of discussion) football fans still cant go to the games and the teams start to suffer the worst of this crisis as they have to play without fans, and folk still cant go to gyms etc etc, it just gets a bit tiresome. You might be right about the jobs thing but as long as we remain in a lifestyle that's a million miles from normal businesses are going to be more exposed to failure IMO. 

It's just the whole "no longer than absolutely neccessary" that's irking me. 

That said, despite being of the obvious opinion that we are doing better than England,  I am probably still just residually raging with that fud Swinney and his schools debacle. 

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, sparky88 said:

I suppose the issue with winter is that a) flu will be around which already stretches the NHS to breaking point, and b) lots of people will have similar symptoms to covid which might put a strain on testing capacity. 

I'm sure studies have been done to show that in China, prevalence of the virus in warm and cooler climates is similar. Unless more work has been done since?

I'm guessing, however, that prevelance of flu will be lower than normal due to any distancing measures remaining in place, plus increased awareness of good hygiene practices.

Hospitalisations may also be down due to greater uptake in vaccinations plus covid having killed a lot of people that would be likely to be severely impacted by flu.

I wouldn't be surprised if the strain on the NHS this winter is much less than in recent years tbh.

[eez-eh]

I’m guessing shared changing rooms might make gyms a bit more “risky”. Although that’s quite easily surmountable by just telling people to get changed at home.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

I’m guessing shared changing rooms might make gyms a bit more “risky”. Although that’s quite easily surmountable by just telling people to get changed at home.

More risky than the pub or cinema?

Could divide the benches with perspex if need be.

There are ways to mitigate any perceived risk in any environment. There just needs to be a desire for that environment to be open.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

I would show some caution regarding that.  Our freezing of the majority of health services is going to have a massive kick on effect with a massive amount of catching up to do (which will be a miracle), that doesn't take into account those that will be presenting way later than they should have with conditions that will need a lot more managing than if they had been seen on time.

Add into new theatre regimes that will see less procedures being performed there is potentially a huge mess ahead.  I said several months ago that people were being parked and would die as a result of not receiving the investigations they need, sadly this is happening and will continue to happen.  I personally have referrals sitting from late last year that should have been seen at the very worst in March, well its now July and they're still not seen.  Sure they weren't urgent at the time but after being kicked down the road so long they are now.  Replicate this over the country and there is a big problem ahead.   I realise that initially the stories and figures we were being told were horrendous but as soon as this became apparent it wasn't the case we should have been looking to open up more hospital services.

Flu figures are always a guess work figure as it depends on the amount of strains, severity etc,  I'm very concerned for the NHS managing the fall out of all this in the time ahead.

Fair point I hadn't considered that.

[madwullie]

I think the reticence with gyms is that there have been a few clusters in Korea linked to gyms, heavy breathing, indoors etc

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-0633_article

Not that that justifies keeping them closed over pubs - exercise is good for mental wellbeing etc while drinking really isn't. 

I guess there's maybe been a point where they can't risk opening both gyms and pubs, they can only afford the risk of one, and the boost to the economy from pubs (and the fact it puts the govt in a good light letting people get tanked) tips the balance. 

I feel like there's been a lot of decisions like that, which is why we end up with incongrouous rules like not being able to go for a piss in someone's house, but kids can basically lick each others faces. Or that you can have a cleaner in your house but need to go to the park to meet only one grandparent. It's like there's a specific volume of risk that we can handle, and each action fills up a bit of the volume. It's not saying that one is "better" than the other, just that we can only afford the one risk and they had to choose. 

I've not phrased that very well. 

Nonetheless, it's pretty backwards and pathetic that people can get fucking leathered in a pub but can't go down the gym on their own and play some squat thrusts or whatever it is you do there. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by madwullie
Tried to clarify. Made worse.

[Wee Bully]

Government can't tax power racks so pubs safe and gyms unsafe.
Annoys me as well, can't play fives for an hour but can get blootered in a pub.

I’m sure that sounded clever in your head.

Tell me what tax the Scottish Government (the body making this decision) gets from pubs which it doesn’t get from gyms.

[D.A.F.C]

Drink tax.

[Wee Bully]

Drink tax.

And what’s that?

[D.A.F.C]

1 minute ago, Wee Bully said:

And what’s that?

Sit doon

[Wee Bully]

Sit doon

Ah, I see. You got it wrong and now you are pretending you meant it.

Fair enough son.

[Alert Mongoose]

At least with gyms there are perfectly valid alternatives so it doesn’t seem to me to be urgent.

[D.A.F.C]

Just now, Wee Bully said:

Ah, I see. You got it wrong and now you are pretending you meant it.

Fair enough son.

Thanks dad

[Gaz]

2 minutes ago, Alert Mongoose said:

At least with gyms there are perfectly valid alternatives so it doesn’t seem to me to be urgent.

It depends.

If you go to the gym to sit on an exercise bike or waddle on a treadmill, then yes, you can do those outside.

If you go to a gym to lift weights, then that's not particularly easy to do elsewhere without a significant financial outlay (which is even more expensive just now).