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Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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The furlough scheme is only a small part of the challenge for businesses as we come out of lockdown.
We have a partial reopening on Monday and a full reopening planned for 15 June.  I have no idea what sort of market we are going back to.  If trade drops by 25%, and that’s a real possibility, we will struggle.
Many other small businesses will be in exactly the same position.
 
Aye but it allowed a certain amount of "wait and see" from businesses that would have otherwise folded by now.

Coming out of lockdown will of course be hard enough but for those businesses who can open up in some shape for form, theres mitigation there. What about the ones who are held back but have to start paying wages or laying off?

Baws burst for a lot of folk as soon as this happens imo

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Furlough will either be maintained at the current rate for sectors that remain closed or the economy will simply be opened up by that stage that it barely matters. It spells curtains for the idea that the SG can set its own timetable for restoring economic activity though - in the medium term it'll have to realign with England.

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1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

Aye but it allowed a certain amount of "wait and see" from businesses that would have otherwise folded by now.

Coming out of lockdown will of course be hard enough but for those businesses who can open up in some shape for form, theres mitigation there. What about the ones who are held back but have to start paying wages or laying off?

Baws burst for a lot of folk as soon as this happens imo

I don’t think we are disagreeing, I’m just trying to make the point that however vital the furlough payments are they could be a pretty small part of a potential economic Armageddon.

We desperately need people to start spending again post lockdown.  I’m not sure that will happen and if it doesn’t there will be a downward spiral.

It’s not beyond the possibility that the various governments will have to try to encourage folk to spend.

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IMG_5430.jpg

Some laugh when her boys grow up and realise their mother is a nut job.

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Furlough changing is going to be a disaster. This is the live or die moment for a lot of businesses who could previously afford to sit and wait without a huge wage bill. If you are forced to pay 20% and cannot open, that will be the tipping point for many.

This represents the point at which we could see genuine civil disobedience.


Can some companies not have people back part time and use furlough this way?

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I don’t think we are disagreeing, I’m just trying to make the point that however vital the furlough payments are they could be a pretty small part of a potential economic Armageddon.
We desperately need people to start spending again post lockdown.  I’m not sure that will happen and if it doesn’t there will be a downward spiral.
It’s not beyond the possibility that the various governments will have to try to encourage folk to spend.
I will do my bit. Been fucking choking to spend my money somewhere. I am starting to notice a massive degree of fear from folk who I had kind of naturally assumed might share my view of the virus (based on age, health etc). A lot of folk are going to minimise their contact with the outside world ling after this goes.

Personally, I cant fucking wait to get back to interacting normally with other people.

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6 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:
32 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:
Furlough changing is going to be a disaster. This is the live or die moment for a lot of businesses who could previously afford to sit and wait without a huge wage bill. If you are forced to pay 20% and cannot open, that will be the tipping point for many.

This represents the point at which we could see genuine civil disobedience.

 

Can some companies not have people back part time and use furlough this way?

I was under the impression that is how the government want it to be used. But this would need to current rules around it to be tweaked.

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I was under the impression that is how the government want it to be used. But this would need to current rules around it to be tweaked.
Cafes, pubs etc maybe need some sort of extension but most businesses can open with rotas or shifts if they cant socially distance atm or do three days on then four days off for example.

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1 minute ago, D.A.F.C said:
4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:
I was under the impression that is how the government want it to be used. But this would need to current rules around it to be tweaked.

Cafes, pubs etc maybe need some sort of extension but most businesses can open with rotas or shifts if they cant socially distance atm or do three days on then four days off for example.

Cafés, (indoor) pubs and restaurants are a phase 3 opening up here. That gives 9 weeks for us to get through phases 1 and 2. On the current trend that is possible.

England, however, are already on their stage 2, and have an eye on stage 3 on July 4th.

If they do move to stage 3 by then, I imagine there will be no provision for extending the furlough scheme in those sectors in Scotland come August beyond what is currently being suggested i.e. Part-Time work if need be, pay split 60% by govt / min 20% employer

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16 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

I will do my bit. Been fucking choking to spend my money somewhere. I am starting to notice a massive degree of fear from folk who I had kind of naturally assumed might share my view of the virus (based on age, health etc). A lot of folk are going to minimise their contact with the outside world ling after this goes.

Personally, I cant fucking wait to get back to interacting normally with other people.

Same. I want to spend money having fun, but need to be allowed back to work to give me more money to spend 😂

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2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

There's going to be a load of employers finding out there are quite a few positions and/or people they can manage fine without. Great for productivity, shite for long term unemployment.

I was just thinking about scenarios where a company has received a £ multi-million bail out loan from the government,

and in the next few months the same company sacks  hundreds/thousands of employees.  ( If I recall correctly, among the lesser publicised aftermaths

of the 2008/9 bank bailout , was that thousands of bank employees lost their jobs ).

So, who ultimately benefits ?

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30 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I don’t think we are disagreeing, I’m just trying to make the point that however vital the furlough payments are they could be a pretty small part of a potential economic Armageddon.

We desperately need people to start spending again post lockdown.  I’m not sure that will happen and if it doesn’t there will be a downward spiral.

It’s not beyond the possibility that the various governments will have to try to encourage folk to spend.

I said in this thread several weeks ago that we were looking at either A) getting the virus and popping your clogs or B) surviving but losing your job and thus income - probably leading to a global depression.

Whilst I was perhaps being a little extreme, with a portion of my tongue wedged in my cheek, I note you (and some others) getting close to my opinion from earlier in the thread. An opinion I was largely ridiculed for.

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1 minute ago, Steven W said:

I said in this thread several weeks ago that we were looking at either A) getting the virus and popping your clogs or B) surviving but losing your job and thus income - probably leading to a global depression.

Whilst I was perhaps being a little extreme, with a portion of my tongue wedged in my cheek, I note you (and some others) getting close to my opinion from earlier in the thread. An opinion I was largely ridiculed for.

The reason that we disagreed is that we don’t like you.

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1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

The reason that we disagreed is that we don’t like you.

Fine by me.

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I see the Professor for Propaganda’s mask has slipped. The official UK figures include only those who tested positive for the virus, and excess deaths which will ultimately be how we judge things doesn’t look at condition at all, only numbers of dead.
 
Still, he’s got a healthy Twitter following and a Daily Express column out of it. He’ll be using that well once everything is over.
 


You know that there are “excess deaths” due to non-covid reasons? Missed appointments and extra suicides to name two.

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2 hours ago, mizfit said:

Sunak announcing later that Furlough will be a case of employers paying 20% and Govt 60% from August. Also the Govt won’t pay the 60% unless employers agree to pay 20%.

So in short, expect a lot of unemployment and anger being directed at them.

I think by Aug most businesses will be open again. The only line of work I think furlough beyond Aug will be needed for is the events industry (my work). The other ones that people were concerned about (pubs/restaurants/hairdressers) will be open again by then 

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6 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 


You know that there are “excess deaths” due to non-covid reasons? Missed appointments and extra suicides to name two.

 

Aye but P&B have decided we don't like the "Weird Professor", so anything he says is to be dismissed

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9 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 


You know that there are “excess deaths” due to non-covid reasons? Missed appointments and extra suicides to name two.

 

Extra suicides are not Covid related?  So what’s the cause?

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2 hours ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Some wummin from The Spectator on five live this morning saying that the word "alert" in the new slogan was supposed to be an acronym, but as the a was going to be the non-existent "app", the idea was quietly dropped. Any suggestions for the other letters? I'm going with:

 

 

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You know that there are “excess deaths” due to non-covid reasons? Missed appointments and extra suicides to name two.

 

Obviously. Excess deaths don’t care about the Professor ‘hearing’ things, hence why it is the most valuable tool for understanding which countries have struggled most with the pandemic as a whole.

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