Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

Tourists from Scotland and England would be allowed to holiday in Scotland from the same date.

You missed the point

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

If it was based on school holidays it would be London

It would be based on the start of the school holidays.

Which it is.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

You missed the point

No. The point you made was either poorly worded to the point I didn't understand it, or just silly.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I agree with much of your post but I do think there’s been a bit of a misunderstanding about Sturgeon’s words yesterday. She is simply looking for similar protection to that being offered in France/Germany for industries that simply won’t go back to normal for now - the example she tweeted about was Airbus, companies quite simply will not be buying new planes so as a country do we just sit and wait on the redundancies arriving? While in the meantime France/Germany remain active, where do you think orders are going to go when things do improve?

It’s politically convenient of course that the Scottish Government doesn’t have the power or ability to do this themselves. Always easier to play opposition and pay lip service about what you’d do if only you could, and I get the impression the UBI debate is in line with this. I’m not convinced the SNP as a party is anywhere near such a radical step. I’ve complained for years that the limit of ambition for many issues in Scotland, most notably the health service, is ‘a bit better than England’. But on this I don’t think she’s speaking out of turn, simply looking for the same job/industry protection that’s ongoing with our main competitors. And I’d be surprised if ultimately this isn’t something that happens, the UK is already voluntarily putting huge barriers in place to business come December without adding less subsidy/support than their competitors into the bargain.

I made the same point last night - it's to enable more long-term part-time working - partly funded through a furlough scheme.

The French scheme is for 2 years - they are not planning to have staff at home doing nothing for 2 years - much more about supporting businesses with more flexible working through that period in until they fully recover.

[pandarilla]

We already know P2 is not going to be fully implemented next Thu and we have been given a massive nod to the parts that won't be relaxed as we have been given a future date for it happening (15 July) which clearly is going to be the earliest P3 easing. Not saying that's right but it's already out there so we know where this is going.

Sorry but I've missed the nods.

Can someone give me a catch up? What can we do as of next Friday and what's being held back (from phase 2).

I want sturgeon to justify not pushing ahead with phase 2 on its entirity - considering the numbers we've seen in the last few weeks. How the f**k could it possibly have went better? Were they looking for absolute wipe-out?

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

No. The point you made was either poorly worded to the point I didn't understand it, or just silly.

If it's not safe for Scottish tourism to open up to Scottish tourists at the end of June, with tiny numbers of infections, then how could it possibly be safe for it to open 2 weeks later to English (and Scottish) tourists with infection numbers currently almost 100 times higher?

If the latter is safe then the former is absolutely safe.

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

If it's not safe for Scottish tourism to open up to Scottish tourists at the end of June, with tiny numbers of infections, then how could it possibly be safe for it to open 2 weeks later to English (and Scottish) tourists with infection numbers currently almost 100 times higher?

If the latter is safe then the former is absolutely safe.

In terms of policing/monitoring the cancelling of all bookings of people resident in England but not Scotland would be problematic (for Scottish accommodation providers between say 24th June and 15th July). I think it does makes sense for Scotland and England to open up to tourists at the same time. 

According to NS, approx 5400 in Scotland are infectious. That's 0.1% of the population. The ONS say in England that between 25th May and 7th June, 0.06% of the population had Covid at any one time 

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

If it's not safe for Scottish tourism to open up to Scottish tourists at the end of June, with tiny numbers of infections, then how could it possibly be safe for it to open 2 weeks later to English (and Scottish) tourists with infection numbers currently almost 100 times higher?

If the latter is safe then the former is absolutely safe.

Travelling Tabby suggests the infection rates are virtually identical in Scotland and England.

 

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Edited June 13, 2020 by welshbairn

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It would be based on the start of the school holidays.
Which it is.

These are the school holidays for the biggest English cities:

* London - 21 July
* Manchester - 21 July
* Birmingham - 20 July
* Newcastle - 17 July
* Sheffield - 21 July
* Liverpool - 20 July
* Leeds - 20 July
* Bradford - 20 July
* Sunderland - 17 July
* Bristol - 20 July
* Wolverhampton - 20 July


Yep - no 15 July in that list.

The Leicester example is a very rare one.

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

In terms of policing/monitoring the cancelling of all bookings of people resident in England but not Scotland would be problematic (for Scottish accommodation providers between say 24th June and 15th July). I think it does makes sense for Scotland and England to open up to tourists at the same time.  

I absolutely get and understand all that.

I'm just fed up with the whole "what's best for Scotland" BS that we get constantly.

This is a clear example of what is best for the UK as a whole (and by that I mean England) regardless of what is best for Scotland

Edited June 13, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The Leicester example is a very rare one.

But. It. Is. The. Start...

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Travelling Tabby suggests the infection rates are virtually identical in Scotland and England.

 

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Infection rate =/= total infections

What are the 7 day average infection numbers in Scotland and in England?

On top of that, that suggests that around 135,000 of the UK's 290,000 cases occurred outside of England, which is obviously not correct.

Edited June 13, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

I absolutely get and understand all that.

I'm just fed up with the whole "what's best for Scotland" BS that we get constantly.

This is a clear example of what is best for the UK as a whole (and by that I mean England).

The Scottish route map originally had Scottish  accommodation providers being allowed to reopen from phase 3. If we accept they phases were likely to role out 3 weeks after each other if things went well, that would put the date at 10th July. 

You're complaining over less than a week.

[renton]

27 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Sorry but I've missed the nods.

Can someone give me a catch up? What can we do as of next Friday and what's being held back (from phase 2).

I want sturgeon to justify not pushing ahead with phase 2 on its entirity - considering the numbers we've seen in the last few weeks. How the f**k could it possibly have went better? Were they looking for absolute wipe-out?

Regarding your second paragraph. R effective is at its base a product of several factors, the size of your susceptible population, the magnitude of your active cases and the connectivity between those two populations. Given the low value of antibodies in the population (like, 5%) we can assume that the first population is more or less unchanged. So that leaves us with two factors.

Lockdown crashed the connectivity between populations and got R under 1. If nothing else changed that R value will stay constant, however active cases decay through recovery or death, so R under lockdown decrease further right?

So, as long as you have active cases, any loosening of lockdown should cause a jump in R. So long as that jump is to a value less than 1, the virus will continue to die off. However, a substantial rise in R just below 1 will effectively stall the decay in case loads, and thus stops you from further loosening off for longer. 

The balancing act then, is to pummel R low enough so that you suppress the jump in R as far as possible to keep a nice stable, quick decay in active cases, which short of a massive jump in immunity is the only sustainable route to R tending to 0. Thus, the lower R effective is in phase 1, the faster you can move through subsequent phases, and to normal economic activity.

Now, here's the kicker: we don't know what effect phase 1 has had on R effective yet. The data lags a week or two behind. The 0.6-0.8 figure is impressive, but we wont have an indication of what, if any meaningful movement there has been in R through phase 1 until the review point on thursday.

Edited June 13, 2020 by renton

[DeeTillEhDeh]

But. It. Is. The. Start...

It is the start of the Leicester school holidays.

It is not the start, how ever much you try to pretend, of the school holidays for the whole of England.

I could have gone through every other council in England and I suspect that 95% will end on 17 July or later. If you look at a date of 20 July and beyond it will be around 80%.

If you are going to come up with a conspiracy then at least get your facts right.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It is the start of the Leicester school holidays.

It is not the start, how ever much you try to pretend, of the school holidays for the whole of England.

I never said it was the start of the school holidays for the whole of England.

Leicester is in England. When they begin their school holidays, school holidays in England have begun.

Your refusal to accept that is embarassing. Move on.

[Wee Willie]

17 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Why the fixation with England?

We should do what is best for Scotland, when it is best for Scotland. Not wait until England decides what's best for them then tries it out. 

For once, England is irrelevant.

But you wrote this a wee while ago - 'm just fed up with the whole "what's best for Scotland" BS that we get constantly.

17 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

Surely you must see why this is a potential issue?

If it was a one time deal, then it would be fine to do exactly as you describe. But it's not a one time deal. By the next GE we will be approaching 17 years of SNP dominance without achieving this.

Essentially if you are pro-independence you must vote SNP, regardless of whether or not you agree with their policies, which allows them to be complacent.

I can accept that but for me the end game is independence for Scotland. And that (realistically) means we must vote for the SNP.

17 hours ago, coprolite said:

Since the recent Westminster government was elected I have reluctantly come to the view that independence would be best for Scotland. I won’t be voting for the SNP at the next election though.

SNP don't contest seats in Wales 

Jeez, ye had me fooled until I read the post in italics.

I was just away tae put on my Braveheart makeup and attack ye with my 6fit claymore but I've taken my pills and have calmed down.

16 hours ago, Snafu said:

The SNP aren't the only pro independence party in Scotland.

But realistically they are the only one that matters

 

11 hours ago, Wee Bully said:

Agreed. He’s in the “utter weapon” category on this thread, along with Virginton and Todd_is_God. Between the 3 of them there has been at least 200 pages of mewling shite.

Haud oan. VT & Todd baith vote for independence so they cannae be a' bad.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

If we accept they phases were likely to role out 3 weeks after each other if things went well

They have and aren't though. It's hard to have confidence in Phase 3 beginning 3 weeks after Phase 2.

I guess we will see

[DeeTillEhDeh]

[emoji23] I never said it was the start of the school holidays for the whole of England.

Leicester is in England. When they begin their school holidays, school holidays in England have begun.

Your refusal to accept that is embarassing. Move on.

 

I've heard it all now but folks the start of the Leicester school holidays is driving a decision to reopen Scottish tourism on 15 July. 

 

 

You embarrassed yourself by being called out and Googled until you found the one example that backs your fruit loop conspiracy theory.

 

Admit it - you got your dates wrong and are backtracking furiously to cover up your mistake.

 

 

 

 

[Mark Connolly]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

Labour will be hoping for a Scottish economic disaster whilst England unlocks relatively free of a second wave. They could then blame the Tories for the horrific death toll and Sturgeon for the humped economy and pick up scores of votes from angry voters across Scotland next May.

Richard Leonard will somehow end up blaming both on himself.