Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[pandarilla]

http://sceptical.scot/2020/05/pareto-and-the-pandemic/

Very interesting article by Hugh pennington, regarding the importance of superspreader events (especially ones where people shout louder than normal).

Could be a good sign for getting out of lockdown - with the exception of the final phase events like live football and gigs n stuff.

[Fullerene]

4 hours ago, Big Fifer said:

Might end up a bit embarrassing if it turns out Covid-19's been here for longer than we thought and we've basically shut down the entire economy for something that, in the grand scheme of things, isn't anywhere near as bad as we thought.

One of the reasons it is so dangerous is that for a large part of the population it is not that bad and maybe they have no symptoms at all.  A disease that made everybody infected obviously ill would be easier to track and control.

[Tony Ferrino]

2 minutes ago, mathematics said:

There aren’t that many ventilators.

 

12 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

In 2 weeks they'll all be on ventilators!!!1

 

There won't be many cancer sufferers, diabetics or brain cells on that beach.

[Fullerene]

3 hours ago, The OP said:

If I can find Wally what do I win?

Oh but alas poor Wally was one of the earliest victim of this disease.  His obsession with always being part of the crowd wherever he went more or less made that inevitable.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

6 minutes ago, Tony Ferrino said:

 

There won't be many cancer sufferers, diabetics or brain cells on that beach.

I dunno. I reckon there will be a lot of obese people out there.

[Michael W]

4 hours ago, throbber said:

Bournemouth beach today 

 

My favourite thing about these photos is the amount of fuming complaints they generate on social media from people who were also there and seem annoyed that other people had the same idea. 

[Guest JTS98]

14 hours ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

On the radio this morning a woman had phoned in to say she had kept her teenage daughters in the house since mid-March. They’d been in the garden, but not allowed out to shop/exercise/anything for 2 and a half months. They live with an elderly relative so understand there’s a bit of fear with that, but I couldn’t believe it. I think she said the gran had also not ventured outside even to the garden in that time. I feel really sorry for anyone that has become that scared through this.

That was the experience of pretty much every child in Malaysia between mid-March and three weeks ago.

Apart from essential workers, the only acceptable excuse for being out on the street was going to buy groceries. And that could only be done by one person from a household and done alone. The cops were stopping people on the street and checking their ID and asking (all friendly and that) where you were going and why. If you had no reason to be out or if you were out with another person, you got a gentle talking to to begin with, then you got a row, then they started fining people, then eventually they started lifting people.

Also, nobody was allowed to be more than 10km from their home, except essential workers etc. The police had roadchecks set up and asked people to show their address and state where they were going and why. If the police weren't satisfied (i.e. you didn't have a permit to go to your work etc, or were trying to go to a supermarket miles from your home) then you were turned around and warned. After a few days people got the message.

No going jogging. No kids going out on bikes. No walking in the park. No going to the shops and taking the kids. Just clear, simple messaging. I didn't actually see a child between mid-March and mid-May. There were none outside.

If people got sick, then they were able to trace their contacts easily and follow up to identify clusters of cases, quarantine them etc. It worked.

Malaysia has more than six times the population of Scotland and from the beginning of this was exposed to huge levels of potential infection due to travel between here and China, and is now reporting daily case numbers in double figures and mainly has been for weeks. People just stayed at home because they were told to and the reasons for it were explained very clearly.

The result of this is that bars and restaurants have now been open for a few weeks and relative normality seems to be on the horizon. There's even talk of international travel relatively soon.

Staying at home was perfectly doable. And it seems that it worked. It seems that the virus has all but vanished from the general population in Malaysia. Our cases now are centred around immigration detention centres and people returning from abroad.

Edited June 2, 2020 by JTS98

[ayrmad]

10 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

That was the experience of pretty much every child in Malaysia between mid-March and three weeks ago.

Apart from essential workers, the only acceptable excuse for being out on the street was going to buy groceries. And that could only be done by one person from a household and done alone. The cops were stopping people on the street and checking their ID and asking (all friendly and that) where you were going and why. If you had no reason to be out or if you were out with another person, you got a gentle talking to to begin with, then you got a row, then they started fining people, then eventually they started lifting people.

No going jogging. No kids going out on bikes. No walking in the park. No going to the shops and taking the kids. Just clear, simple messaging.

If people got sick, then they were able to trace their contacts easily and follow up to identify clusters of cases, quarantine them etc. It worked.

Malaysia has more than six times the population of Scotland and from the beginning of this was exposed to huge levels of potential infection due to travel between here and China, and is now reporting daily case numbers in double figures and mainly has been for weeks. People just stayed at home because they were told to and the reasons for it were explained very clearly.

The result of this is that bars and restaurants have now been open for a few weeks and relative normality seems to be on the horizon. There's even talk of international travel relatively soon.

Staying at home was perfectly doable. And it seems that it worked. It seems that the virus has all but vanished from the general population in Malaysia. Our cases now are centred around immigration detention centres and people returning from abroad.

Diddy science from a Diddy country. 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

7 hours ago, pandarilla said:

http://sceptical.scot/2020/05/pareto-and-the-pandemic/

Very interesting article by Hugh pennington, regarding the importance of superspreader events (especially ones where people shout louder than normal).

Could be a good sign for getting out of lockdown - with the exception of the final phase events like live football and gigs n stuff.

Not really sure there’s anything in that article that we didn’t already know a few weeks back.  Plus it’s Pareto’s Principle not Law. 

 

[Dan Steele]

49 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Not really sure there’s anything in that article that we didn’t already know a few weeks back.  Plus it’s Pareto’s Principle not Law. 

 

Isn't Pennington part of Scotland Matters and Better Together? Being that close to Tories he wouldn't know about principles.

[vikingTON]

8 hours ago, Fullerene said:

One of the reasons it is so dangerous is that for a large part of the population it is not that bad and maybe they have no symptoms at all.  A disease that made everybody infected obviously ill would be easier to track and control.

Erm yes, if only it was good old Ebola running rampant in the community and bumping off easily half of those it infects instead.

9 hours ago, Tony Ferrino said:

People taking the opportunity to go to the beach before there's another lockdown because of too many people going to the beach.

If the government's grand strategy on June 1 is still to cross it's fingers and hope that  people don't have the temerity to go to the same places when it's nice then it is the government that has failed and not the public. They've had nine fucking weeks of lockdown to set up a credible testing and contact tracing infrastructure by now.

[Guest JTS98]

10 minutes ago, virginton said:

Erm yes, if only it was good old Ebola running rampant in the community and bumping off easily half of those it infects instead.

An ebola outbreak would be far preferable from a public health point of view.

It would kill far fewer people and cause far less disrpution to public life because it's much harder to catch ebola than it is to catch the covid and infectious people are more easily identifiable. The last ebola outbreak was relatively easily contained and resulted in 11,000 deaths. That's miles better for the population than covid-19, with approaching 400,000 dead globally, unprecedented economic and social disruption, plus the leftover lung problems for a lot of survivors.

Not sure why anyone would dispute that. Except you. You dispute everything anybody says because you're desperate for people to think you're clever and edgy.

Edited June 2, 2020 by JTS98

[vikingTON]

45 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

An ebola outbreak would be far preferable from a public health point of view.

It would kill far fewer people and cause far less disrpution to public life because it's much harder to catch ebola than it is to catch the covid and infectious people are more easily identifiable. The last ebola outbreak was relatively easily contained and resulted in 11,000 deaths. That's miles better for the population than covid-19, with approaching 400,000 dead globally, unprecedented economic and social disruption, plus the leftover lung problems for a lot of survivors.

Not sure why anyone would dispute that. Except you. You dispute everything anybody says because you're desperate for people to think you're clever and edgy.

If an Ebola carrier reached an Italian ski resort at peak season and it then got sprayed halfway around Europe via plane then the death toll would be much higher. In the same way that the regional West African epidemic that killed 11k from 2011 was more than 30 times larger than any previous outbreak of the disease in history. So much for 'easily contained' then.

The public health risk of a community Ebola outbreak would also be universally felt in the community, which is really not the case for a virus that is serious to those with underlying health conditions but really not to the general public.

Thanks for playing anyway champ.

Edited June 2, 2020 by vikingTON

[vikingTON]

NB: I'm loving how 'but lung problems for years!!!!!111!!!!' is steadily rising to the top of the knicker-wetters' mantra at the expense of 'everyone will need a ventilator!!!111!!!', as every case study underlines the fact that yeah, that was a load of hysterical bullshit.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

There is a tendancy, mostly amongst the young and/or stupid, to read “underlying health conditions” as “coffin dodgers who most likely were on their way out soon anyway”

[NotThePars]

My favourite thing about these photos is the amount of fuming complaints they generate on social media from people who were also there and seem annoyed that other people had the same idea. 

It’s some laugh when they interview a slab of ham on the beach who’s just going off about all the selfish b*****ds that have turned up at the beach with him.

[vikingTON]

19 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

There is a tendancy, mostly amongst the young and/or stupid, to read “underlying health conditions” as “coffin dodgers who most likely were on their way out soon anyway”
 

Well no, most rational people in fact understand that 'underlying health conditions' and 'elderly coffin dodgers' are in fact two distinct yet significantly overlapping categories in the Coronavirus Risk Venn diagram. Whereas if you fall into neither category then the risk to your health is low enough to be rightly considered negligible. 

Those straightforward facts are supported by all the available case studies and evidence, as opposed of course to the cherry-picked anecdotes beloved by the media.

Edited June 2, 2020 by vikingTON

[bennett]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

Well no, most rational people in fact understand that 'underlying health conditions' and 'elderly coffin dodgers' are in fact two distinct yet significantly overlapping categories in the Coronavirus Risk Venn diagram. Whereas if you fall into neither category then the risk to your health is low enough to be rightly considered negligible. 

Those straightforward facts are supported by all the available case studies and evidence, as opposed of course to the cherry-picked anecdotes beloved by the media.

 

[ICTChris]

14 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Really good article about Scotland's coronavirus experience, this is why I like the FT.

https://www.ft.com/content/a3fe315f-610a-4086-a6bc-a466a7f33aa1

I got paywalled when I clicked on your link but when I clicked on one from Twitter it worked.

It's a good article, there have obviously been some areas where Sturgeon has done better than the UK Government - she has been clearer in her communications, for example.  What is true is that the actual policy has been the same, the big failures are the same - poor provision of PPE, lack of attention to care homes, testing capacity, not acting quickly enough.

One thing that's interesting, and it doesn't just apply to this crisis, is that there's a kind of 'Tartan halo' around the Scottish Parliament, a lot of people see whatever comes out of there as better than anything from WEstminster.  This isn't specific to the SNP, there were similar results from the previous Labour-LibDem executives.  Another big factor is that there is no real opposition to the SNP, none of the opposition parties are credible as an alternative government and criticism from them just isn't taken seriously.  Perhaps this could change if Nicola Sturgeon was to step down because I think there is a significant drop off in capability in the current SNP adminstration from her but even then I don't think that's going to propel Jackspn Carlaw into Bute House.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

37 minutes ago, virginton said:

Well no, most rational people in fact understand that 'underlying health conditions' and 'elderly coffin dodgers' are in fact two distinct yet significantly overlapping categories in the Coronavirus Risk Venn diagram. Whereas if you fall into neither category then the risk to your health is low enough to be rightly considered negligible. 

Those straightforward facts are supported by all the available case studies and evidence, as opposed of course to the cherry-picked anecdotes beloved by the media.

^^^Young