Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[welshbairn]

 

31 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

There is absolutely nothing to say that Covid-19 could not have been present in the UK by mid December, yet no one is willing to even entertain the idea that it may have been.

Why?

Because they were identified as flu variants.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/851695/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_50.pdf

[The OP]

18 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

How have you arrived at that number?

300,000 is 0.46% of the UK population.

Based on the few studies into asymptomatic cases etc you would need a greater number of infections than there are people in the UK to produce that number.

I just hope you are seeking out your studies from unbiased sources which are willing to differentiate between asymptomatic and presymptomatic and which explain why governments the world over have decided to take scientific advice but then crash their economies for a laugh.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, The OP said:

why governments the world over have decided to take scientific advice but then crash their economies for a laugh.

It's not difficult to understand why this has been the course taken based on the information available.

The contageousness of the virus coupled with the apparant death rate is a scary proposition.

It would be unfair to expect governments to react to information they could not possibly know

[The OP]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

It's not difficult to understand why this has been the course taken based on the information available.

The contageousness of the virus coupled with the apparant death rate is a scary proposition.

It would be unfair to expect governments to react to information they could not possibly know

But you suspect strongly, so far as I can tell? Why have you identified this flawed reasoning which has so far eluded medical and scientific professionals?

[Todd_is_God]

23 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

 

Because they were identified as flu variants.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/851695/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_50.pdf

Well no, you can only identify a flu variant if you test for it.

Mild cases would have been diagnosed without a test.

Add to the mix there was no test for covid-19 and it wouldn't show up anywhere anyway.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, The OP said:

But you suspect strongly, so far as I can tell? Why have you identified this flawed reasoning which has so far eluded medical and scientific professionals?

I don't think it's fair to say it has eluded scientific professionals. It is they conducting the antibody tests and discovering a community transmitted case in Europe from December.

It's not so much that I suspect strongly. I suggested it as plausible based on the aforementiomed discovery by a French doctor announced today. This was shot down as totally impossible. It isn't so far as I can see. That doesn't mean it is the case either.

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Well no, you can only identify a flu varient if you test for it.

Mild cases would have been diagnosed without a test.

Add to the mix there was no test for covid-19 and it wouldn't show up anywhere anyway.

So you have zero evidence for Covid19 being present in mid December whilst there is plenty evidence for flu to explain the numbers. Your rational is on David Icke levels of inventive dot joining. Again, why were the numbers so low in London, the epicentre for Covid19 in the UK?

Edited May 4, 2020 by welshbairn

[The OP]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

I don't think it's fair to say it has eluded scientific professionals. It is they conducting the antibody tests and discovering a community transmitted case in Europe from December.

It's not so much that I suspect strongly. I suggested it as plausible based on the aforementiomed discovery by a French doctor announced today. This was shot down as totally impossible. It isn't so far as I can see. That doesn't mean it is the case either.

Everything you are saying is possible but you have little to no basis for anything you say aside from an unusual finding in one dead guy in one French hospital, which you don't have any ability to interpret. You are relying on a fact which was presented without commentary by the French doctor but which you have added your own biased commentary and speculation to, with "I am just suggesting" tacked on to make it seem unbiased. So yes, you may be right, but if you are it is completely by accident and not based on current data or any expertise.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, welshbairn said:

So you have zero evidence for Covid19 being present in mid December whilst there is plenty evidence for flu to explain the numbers. Your rational is on David Icke levels of inventive dot joining.

Of course i've no hard evidence. Where would I get it?

I made a suggestion that a small wave could have been here around December, was told bluntly this was not plausible, and was challenged to show where the excess deaths were. I produced a report which mentioned higher than usual visits to GPs for flu-like illnesses over a number of weeks (which can be diagnosed as flu without a test), that there was a week where there were excess deaths, and that in Ireland A&E departments and hospitals were rammed with patients suffering from flu like illnesses.

Whether or not it was due to Covid-19 I can't say. But it clearly is plausible.

[Todd_is_God]

25 minutes ago, The OP said:

Everything you are saying is possible but you have little to no basis for anything you say aside from an unusual finding in one dead guy in one French hospital, which you don't have any ability to interpret. You are relying on a fact which was presented without commentary by the French doctor but which you have added your own biased commentary and speculation to, with "I am just suggesting" tacked on to make it seem unbiased. So yes, you may be right, but if you are it is completely by accident and not based on current data or any expertise.

He didn't die.

It's worth remembering where we are. The GN forum of Pie & Bovril is a place for people to talk about things they often know little about.

I'm not a scientist, i'm not advising anyone, nothing I or anyone else says here makes a blind bit of difference in the long run.

Despite that, I find it a bit patronising to suggest im not capable of interpreting information. Barely a month has gone by since I was ridiculed for saying all the data available was pointing to the UK reaching the peak around Easter Sunday, and following on from that the bottom of our curve to be around the 1st of June, yet we did reach the peak around Easter Sunday, and June 1st doesn't look so silly now either.

I'm perfectly capable of interpreting information, thank you very much.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Thereisalight..]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

"If your doctor wants to determine whether your flu-like symptoms are due to flu, another virus, or other causes. Usually only patients with severe infection are tested. When influenza is at a high level in the community, doctors will often diagnose respiratory infections as influenza based on symptoms, without taking a sample to test."

Perfectly plausible to suggest that early cases of an as yet unknown virus which causes flu like symptoms could have been misdiagnosed as flu, when, as welshbairn points out, we would have been in flu season.

There is absolutely nothing to say that Covid-19 could not have been present in the UK by mid December, yet no one is willing to even entertain the idea that it may have been.

Why?

Because the media haven’t told them that. Seems too many people on here can’t think outside the box and blindly accept what they’re told. 

Its believed to have been in Wuhan in Nov. There is absolutely nothing to say it wasn’t in the UK in Jan considering the amount of travel to and from China to/from the UK

[Thereisalight..]

When were people first tested in the UK for suspected Coronavirus? 

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

When were people first tested in the UK for suspected Coronavirus? 

Late January, according to the BBC

[Thereisalight..]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

Late January, according to the BBC

That’s surprising. 

The last day of Jan my Dad was in hospital and they thought he had “flu” as well as his lung issue.  My mum and I had to wear all the PPE gear and a few hours later they said it wasn’t flu. They didn’t mention any tests for Covid which with hindsight is perplexing as he showed all the symptoms 

[The OP]

22 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

 

It's worth remembering where we are. The GN forum of Pie & Bovril is a place for people to talk about things they often know little about.

I'm not a scientist, i'm not advising anyone, nothing I or anyone else says here makes a blind bit of difference in the long run.

 

Misinformation and bad science being spread around social media is a major issue in the modern world and P&B has a higher readership than most facebook pages and twitter accounts. What you say about a substitution or a corner matters f**k all. Constant misinformation downplaying a pandemic could lead some people to treat the best scientific advice we have with more disdain because they saw an image from The Express and read somewhere that there has been an earlier wave to the pandemic so all the modelling is fucked. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by The OP

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

14 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

My mum and I had to wear all the PPE gear

@Alert Mongoose seams to have this cornered, just leave it to him please.

[madwullie]

So a leaked document from the Whitehouse is suggesting they're going to soon hit 3k deaths per day. Yet still the covid deniers / being asked to stay at home is tyranny mob, in cahoots with state governors are opening up the states, some slowly some not so slowly. Going to be a disaster of epic proportions all because that orange p***k in the Whitehouse is too scared to actually lead and would much rather sit about eating burgers, watching cable, and retweet absolute fucking idiotic takes from around the country, or indeed his TV ratings and how his political opponents are all fucking clowns. And STILL he'll find ways to ensure that this ends with him getting as close as possible to a second term - imo fudging the landscape do much that democratic governors are somehow blamed for everything - if he doesn't turn into a death rate denier himself. 

Mind blowing. 

They've basically spent 5 weeks on a lighter lockdown than us to make their deaths plateau at 2k for a week or so and the plan now is - hope its going to go away.

Edited May 5, 2020 by madwullie

[madwullie]

7 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/respiratory-/flu-hospital-admissions-in-england-rise-by-more-than-40-in-a-week/20039863.article

"Meanwhile, the rate of influenza-like illness reported in primary care is above usual levels for the first time this season, according to PHE.

GPs in participating practices reported consulting 13 patients per 100,000 population with influenza-like illness – an increase from last week’s 10.6 patients with flu-like symptoms per 100,000 registered population."

December 16th, 2019

There was an increased level of influenza like illnesses in the UK in early to mid December.

Given what we know now, I don't see why i'm being ridiculed for asking if it is plausible that these illnesses could be Covid-19 related.

Covid 19 is not really like influenza though. Those who are dying or having narrow escapes are stroking (Kenneth Williams Gif), double pneumonia, very specific ct findings, dying on ventilators, kidney dialysis, liver problems, females especially suffering from heart issues, breathlessness lasting long after the virus has passed, dangerously low and unusual red blood cell count, sometimes requiring transfusion. No snotters, no sneezing, we even had charts for you to check to see if what you had was flu or covid, as the symptoms are pretty different. 

Even if you accept the unlikely hypothesis that a highly contagious virus was not very highly infectiousing its way through the population, NOT causing the build up of cases that the actual first wave has caused, NOT caused care homes to half the number of residents as soon as one of them caught it, avoided the major population centres that have been rattled by actual coronavirus, amongst all the other features of the spread of coronavirus that don't behave like flu, you then have the point I made above  that often the final stages of dying from covid don't really look like the final stages of dying from a standard flu I'm not saying it's not possible, after all I'm just a retired English teacher, but from everything we've learned so far I'd give it a 97% chances of this not being the second wave, the first of which went more or less unnoticed in December. 

According to reports, in Wuhan, doctors pretty quickly identified that this wasn't no normal flu but were shut down by the govt and couldn't get that word out. 

Are our doctors not as capable? We're they not able to identify that this wasn't any old normal flu, or did they inexplicably decide to keep this information to themselves, keep it to themselves even up till now, where releasing the fact that we are on a second wave would probably chambge the approach we have to take to combat it now? Where are these doctors? Are they not as clever /brave as those in China? Are they STILL keeping it a secret despite everything that's gone on, a the revelations about the govt f**k ups, now would be the perfect time imo to release this info, further evidence of the govt (that they hate) suppressing information vital to the health of the nation - to the health of Europe and the planet in general because everyone has got it completely wrong? But they're either sitting on it, or just didn't notice? 

Just doesn't make sense to me mate. Something doesn't add up with your theory in afraid. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by madwullie

[Jacksgranda]

The Mafia getting on the job - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52537573

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Jacksgranda said:

The Mafia getting on the job - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52537573

That report says 7 hours old, but the BBC website ran an almost identical piece 3 or 4 weeks back.  Pretty bad they’re recycling stories when there’s so much more to cover.