Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

29 minutes ago, The OP said:

The point I'm making is that you are continually talking pish trying to downplay this for some weird reason. You are coming across as the new Jeremiah Cole. I suspect you always have been a watered down version but were less noticeable when he was around. 

Do you have an explanation for the 146% spike in overall care home deaths in this period which makes sense in light of your criticisms of the treatment of suspected cases as cases or your suspicion that the spike in deaths is caused by the fear of corona? Or are you just going to deflect by posting truisms and irrelevant quotes?

Finally, do you think it worthwhile to have pathologists carrying out hundreds more post-mortems in a time of substantial increase in deaths and a requirement for greater social distancing to reduce the number of deaths?

I'm not downplaying anything. I would prefer accurate figures achieved through greater, widespread testing. If they are higher than is currently being reported then it's important to know that, but not with estimates based on models or assumptions.

Is answering "I don't think that's true" by showing you a quote from an article you provided that it is irrelevant? I made a comment, you decided to point out it was incorrect. It's not.

You're picking and chosing which figures you want to fight about. Earlier a link was posted to an article which stated there were about 24,000 excess all causes deaths which were being presented as all being caused directly by covid-19. I suggested this was unlikely to be the case, and more likely to be indirectly caused by covid-19. Counting indirect deaths does not help track the progression or regression of an epidemic. Do you not agree?

Do I have an explanation for your example? Im this case Covid-19 is a fair assumption. 

I've said many times how I think we should proceed to reduce the number of deaths, whilst at the same time get the economy moving again. Shield those most likely to suffer serious or fatal infections for now, and allow young, healthy people to return to a sense of normality.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Germany, Spain and Italy are lifting part of their lockdowns next month. Probably the UK won’t be that far behind.

 

[madwullie]

Is everyone whose death listed as flu in a normal season tested to see if flu killed them? ie only laboratory confirmed cases? If flu is a contributory factor in a normal season is it listed as the cause or not. 

I'm no expert, but I would be extremely unsurprised to find out that what is happening with covid is what is happens with flu, and that it's standard practice. 

[ICTJohnboy]

I'm fairly comfortable and prepared to accept the information coming from the Scottish Gov/t. Certainly more so than the woolly crap that comes from the likes of Hancock, Raab, etc, who are clearly so much more concerned with blowing their own trumpets, and telling the world what a fucking great job they're doing.

[Alert Mongoose]

This could all be solved if they stopped announcing death rates like it’s some sort of replacement show for the national lottery.  I don’t think it’s helping anyone.

[bendan]

6 hours ago, 8MileBU said:

This has maybe already been asked and answered, but stuff trawling through this monster thread to check. 

Does anyone else find themselves getting annoyed with the daily reporting of cases/deaths being just the figures and wish add some simplicity?

I ask because over the last couple of weeks, my daughter’s got into the habit of asking ‘Is that more or less than yesterday?’ when the daily government  briefing comes on tv. 

I now find them giving the figures fucking annoying because I now wish they’d give the figures but add ‘That’s a rise/fall in cases and deaths’ from yesterday.

The reporting by both the SG and the Scottish media has been, as you say, fucking annoying. It's mental that in order to get any idea of trends you have to do your own calculations. The only saving grace is that the information to let you do that is at least published.

An even bigger car crash is the way all the figures are clearly being hugely skewed by unknown working patterns and practices. It seems from the figures that it's taking many days for test results to come back, for example, and the death stats are so randomly  up and down that I'm not even sure using a seven-day average would solve the issue. 

To get out of lockdown it's clear we will need a really professional and efficient testing and tracing operation, and the blindingly obvious fact we won't have that is, for me, one of the most depressing things right now.

[Bairnardo]

The weather over the last few days has saw a huge increase in folk out and about.

If the lockdown conditions remain unchanged beyond May 11th, we are going to see widespread folk just fucking it off IMO, about which the Police will be able to do not very much.

Anyone else think they are seeing more self-loosening if conditions?

[Granny Danger]

6 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

I'm not downplaying anything. I would prefer accurate figures achieved through greater, widespread testing. If they are higher than is currently being reported then it's important to know that, but not with estimates based on models or assumptions.

Is answering "I don't think that's true" by showing you a quote from an article you provided that it is irrelevant? I made a comment, you decided to point out it was incorrect. It's not.

You're picking and chosing which figures you want to fight about. Earlier a link was posted to an article which stated there were about 24,000 excess all causes deaths which were being presented as all being caused directly by covid-19. I suggested this was unlikely to be the case, and more likely to be indirectly caused by covid-19. Counting indirect deaths does not help track the progression or regression of an epidemic. Do you not agree?

Do I have an explanation for your example? Im this case Covid-19 is a fair assumption. 

I've said many times how I think we should proceed to reduce the number of deaths, whilst at the same time get the economy moving again. Shield those most likely to suffer serious or fatal infections for now, and allow young, healthy people to return to a sense of normality.

There is no precise way of determining COVID-19 deaths.  Therefore we have to look at the best ways of estimating the figure.

Death rates for set time periods do not vary considerably year-on-year, so comparing the death rate this year, since the outbreak, with past years seems a good indicator.

On this basis the actual death rate is about 41,000 not 18,100 as reported.

[bendan]

3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

There is no precise way of determining COVID-19 deaths.  Therefore we have to look at the best ways of estimating the figure.

Death rates for set time periods do not vary considerably year-on-year, so comparing the death rate this year, since the outbreak, with past years seems a good indicator.

On this basis the actual death rate is about 41,000 not 18,100 as reported.

But as has been said, this is a good way of capturing deaths related to the crisis, but not specifically the disease itself. Of course, I realise most will be the direct result, but any developed country would want to know more than just an overall excess deaths figure.

[ICTJohnboy]

21 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

The weather over the last few days has saw a huge increase in folk out and about.

If the lockdown conditions remain unchanged beyond May 11th, we are going to see widespread folk just fucking it off IMO, about which the Police will be able to do not very much.

Anyone else think they are seeing more self-loosening if conditions?

 

I'm currently self isolating in Inverness - certainly seeing a lot more cars on the road than was the case a couple of weeks ago. Not seeing many police cars around, or any evidence of anyone being stopped and questioned as to their reasons for being on the road.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Was in the car yesterday for essential reasons and the Cleppy Road in Dundee was nearly as busy as normal.

[Bairnardo]

 
I'm currently self isolating in Inverness - certainly seeing a lot more cars on the road than was the case a couple of weeks ago. Not seeing many police cars around, or any evidence of anyone being stopped and questioned as to their reasons for being on the road.

Theres a slow creep IMO. Businesses which closed voluntarily but can be classed as essential (B&Q a good example) opening back up is probably giving a false impression to folk. My last week of work the roads were much busier at the end than at the start and the amount of folk out walking about is much more.

That said, maybe some folk werent bothering with their family walks or whatever before and are now.

I just think if they dont throw folk a bone this next time, then a lot of people will take it into their own hands. Not sure what that might be though. Schools maybe?

[Billy Jean King]

Schools, a bone !!! How the hell di schools operate with social distancing as it is. Schools will rightly stay closed until August. CMO could not be clearer, social distancing is here for the long term even with some easing of measures. We are going have to totally change our lives fairly significantly until we have a certified vaccination program.

Theres a slow creep IMO. Businesses which closed voluntarily but can be classed as essential (B&Q a good example) opening back up is probably giving a false impression to folk. My last week of work the roads were much busier at the end than at the start and the amount of folk out walking about is much more.

 

That said, maybe some folk werent bothering with their family walks or whatever before and are now.

 

I just think if they dont throw folk a bone this next time, then a lot of people will take it into their own hands. Not sure what that might be though. Schools maybe?

 

[ICTJohnboy]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Theres a slow creep IMO. Businesses which closed voluntarily but can be classed as essential (B&Q a good example) opening back up is probably giving a false impression to folk. My last week of work the roads were much busier at the end than at the start and the amount of folk out walking about is much more.

That said, maybe some folk werent bothering with their family walks or whatever before and are now.

I just think if they dont throw folk a bone this next time, then a lot of people will take it into their own hands. Not sure what that might be though. Schools maybe?

 

Not sure about schools - young kids are notorious for picking things up, and spreading them around. I'd like to see an easing of getting out and about by car - runs in the country for instance. Maybe even allow camping in some areas - that can still be done without having to come in close contact with others.

[101]

7 hours ago, Speroni*1 said:

. The lack of testing available made a stressful experience 100x worse and more difficult for everyone involved here.

.

The problem with testing as I understand it is that you have to be tested at exactly the right time otherwise you get false testing which will give you blind faith that you're "ok". We need the anti body test asap and need to know reliabilily if you can catch it twice. Sending ever care home worker for a test sadly won't do much, if anything it may lead to complacency.

[ICTJohnboy]

6 minutes ago, Tynierose said:

Open the churches I say...

 

So as we can all shout at God for inflicting this nasty virus on us?

[bendan]

1 minute ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

Not sure about schools - young kids are notorious for picking things up, and spreading them around. I'd like to see an easing of getting out and about by car - runs in the country for instance. Maybe even allow camping in some areas - that can still be done without having to come in close contact with others.

If you look at how raging some on this thread get about people doing exercise or going to the park, there's not much chance of that. There's no scientific evidence of this spreading to any significant degree in outdoor situations, yet that matters not a bit to the curtain twitchers. 

[SlipperyP]

9 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Schools, a bone !!! How the hell di schools operate with social distancing as it is. Schools will rightly stay closed until August. CMO could not be clearer, social distancing is here for the long term even with some easing of measures. We are going have to totally change our lives fairly significantly until we have a certified vaccination program.

 

 

Yep schools here were closed on the 11th March and wont open until 1st July at the earliest. 

Children can pass on the virus just like everyone else.  Here many of the grandparents take care of the children after school, so that would be catastrophic here. 

[Bairnardo]

Schools, a bone !!! How the hell di schools operate with social distancing as it is. Schools will rightly stay closed until August. CMO could not be clearer, social distancing is here for the long term even with some easing of measures. We are going have to totally change our lives fairly significantly until we have a certified vaccination program.

 

I assumed that my oldest would be off till August, and was surprised to see schools come back into the discussion recently with some papers touting them opening again in May.

Social distancing of one form or another will be around until the end of this, and probably will see pubs be the last thing we get back, but once again, they are going to have to start somewhere and take risks at some point. Surely no one believes the current measures are suitable until there is no covid anywhere.

It wouldnt surprise me if kids were first back into the firing line tbh. It seems like the whole point of the letter to vulnerable and elderly folk is setting them up for more stringent restrictions for longer, whilst younger folk get let back out the house. The two or more tier system will begin on May 11th IMO.

[Salvo Montalbano]

Even before the lockdown was tightened, school attendance was down massively. This was in part due to pupils with underlying health issues, in part due pupils who live with people with underlying health issues and in part due to people being worried that their children might become a method of passing the virus onto others. Opening the schools up would be a bit pointless given that the first two groups of pupils will be at a severe disadvantage compared to the rest and makes up a surprisingly high number (especially in poorer areas) and the third group will in all likelihood be higher than it was pre-lockdown. You'll also have staff in the same boat - we had about 6 teachers off pre-lockdown as they had health issues or were pregnant. And for what? A few weeks before the Summer Holidays start?