Melanius Mullarkey Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said: Is there such a thing as "partial deaths"? Asking for an undertaker. Dunno JG. Ask the The Rangers* fans. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said: Is there such a thing as "partial deaths"? Asking for an undertaker. Does ‘half dead’ count? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Are they? Their graphs look fairly similar to most other countries. 900 odd being reported today 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: Don’t think the population is the biggest variable though. You can have similar populations but other variables will have a greater effect on such a transmissible disease (population density, number of major travel hubs, general arseholishness of the populace etc). Absolute deaths are what we are interested in here. Surely all of them should be interpreted? That may throw up a trend we hadn't noted using absolute numbers or per capita numbers. Difficult to measure arseholishness,, never mind plot it, though. I don't agree absolute numbers are the best indicator, though, but it depends on the purpose of the data. Per capita has to be the best for comparative purposes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 48 more deaths in Scottish hospitals, total of 495 dead in the outbreak.Is it just me or is this very good news?Is there something missing in the number, or is this a clear decline? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Don’t think the population is the biggest variable though. You can have similar populations but other variables will have a greater effect on such a transmissible disease (population density, number of major travel hubs, general arseholishness of the populace etc). Absolute deaths are what we are interested in here. Population density is barely a factor, take a look at the Italian data I linked to earlier today as an example. Alpine provinces have worse infection rates than regional capitals. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 1 minute ago, doulikefish said: 900 odd being reported today 900 odd what? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hk blues Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: 10 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: Don’t think the population is the biggest variable though. You can have similar populations but other variables will have a greater effect on such a transmissible disease (population density, number of major travel hubs, general arseholishness of the populace etc). Absolute deaths are what we are interested in here. Population density is barely a factor, take a look at the Italian data I linked to earlier today as an example. Alpine provinces have worse infection rates than regional capitals. Hong Kong as well. High population density but hardly a hotspot. Then again, they have had experience of dealing with epidemics so that might be a factor. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Just now, pandarilla said: Is it just me or is this very good news? Is there something missing in the number, or is this a clear decline? I think it's good news. I would be cautious of reading too much into "clear decline" but it would appear that we have pretty much reached the peak, and that while it might take a few more days to start to consistently decline, it won't go up. Miles away from the knicker wetters saying we'd hit 500 a day by next week, and ridiculing me for saying that was nonsense. What we don't need, though, are people looking at those figures, getting excited, and goinh out to roll eggs on Sunday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: 13 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: Don’t think the population is the biggest variable though. You can have similar populations but other variables will have a greater effect on such a transmissible disease (population density, number of major travel hubs, general arseholishness of the populace etc). Absolute deaths are what we are interested in here. Population density is barely a factor, take a look at the Italian data I linked to earlier today as an example. Alpine provinces have worse infection rates than regional capitals. Weird how the Sicilian interior is far worse affected than Palermo province. Suppose it could just be a isolated cluster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tynierose said: The amount of wildebeest seen running across the wilds of Torquay from a hotel window I would imagine. Ha ha... 900 new cases is not an out of the ordinary increase on yesterdays figures. 900 deaths would be a ridiculous increase. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendot Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, pandarilla said: Is it just me or is this very good news? Is there something missing in the number, or is this a clear decline? Good news from a day to day basis from yesterday and previous few days. But these figures need to be sustained / continue to reduce over the coming weeks for it to be very good news! I wouldn't read too much into it just yet. I suspect with Easter weekend the figures will be higher again by Monday though with a potential mini spike as @Todd_is_God suggests if people suddenly think thats great we're on the mend etc etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Before we get carried away with Sweden, it is worth remembering that they have told those most vulnerable to severe disease to stay home, similar to what we have done with our NHS letters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: 900 odd what? Dead, 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 In Lombardia the four most densely populated provinces (out of twelve) are the four least affected provinces in the region.The correlation is -0.29. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 1 minute ago, greendot said: Good news from a day to day basis from yesterday and previous few days. But these figures need to be sustained / continue to reduce over the coming weeks for it to be very good news! I wouldn't read too much into it just yet. I suspect with Easter weekend the figures will be higher again by Monday though with a potential mini spike as @Todd_is_God suggests if people suddenly think thats great we're on the mend etc etc. The problem is we wouldn't see it by Monday. The impact of mass gatherings of idiots over this weekend wouldn't be spotted until the following week. No doubt at the same time pressure to relax measures would be intensifying even more. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendot Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 Just now, Todd_is_God said: The problem is we wouldn't see it by Monday. The impact of mass gatherings of idiots over this weekend wouldn't be spotted until the following week. No doubt at the same time pressure to relax measures would be intensifying even more. Aye my post wasn't clear, the Monday increase was meant to reflect with the shutdown on reporting over the weekend things tend to be higher on the Monday release of figures but any such gatherings this weekend wouldn't be picked up till later on next week or week after. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Dead, Source? That would represent an 800% increase on the last 3 days, and a 50% increase in total deaths in one day. Either that figure is wrong, or their figures up to this point are inaccurate 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 19 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Does ‘half dead’ count? 2 half deads = 1 absolute death? (Unless we're using your calculator.) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted April 10, 2020 Share Posted April 10, 2020 I think it's good news. I would be cautious of reading too much into "clear decline" but it would appear that we have pretty much reached the peak, and that while it might take a few more days to start to consistently decline, it won't go up. Miles away from the knicker wetters saying we'd hit 500 a day by next week, and ridiculing me for saying that was nonsense. What we don't need, though, are people looking at those figures, getting excited, and goinh out to roll eggs on Sunday.Does anyone actually roll eggs?Every year my old mum talked about doing it and i swear I've never done it in my 39 years on this planet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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